coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Re: The World Needs Dollars...

Boghie,

If you look at my original post, I wasn't trying to make a statement. I only posted an interesting dialogue between Ben and Alan. You have to draw your own conclusions. I try to post interesting links in my thread, but for the most part it's up to the reader to interpret them.

Still looking for an entry to beef up my equity exposure. Maybe today?

CoolHand,

The world runs on dollars. Other folks outside of our borders require dollars for many, many transactions. How does New Zealand buy oil without dollars. Anyway, New Zealand didn't get a half trillion dollars. And, we didn't give them anything - we currency traded on a national bank to national bank level.

Regardless, I really don't want Alan Grayson, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Ted Kennedy, President Obama, President Bush, Jim DeMint, or that K Street Guy from Texas managing the money supply. For all their faults Bernanke, Greenspan, and Volker have done a good job.

Rather have the FED trade currency than George Soros right about now, eh

 

[turbo23dog]

Today was looking like a good day to buy some but as we get closer to 12:00, its looking less and less...

 

[nnuut]

Yeah I was going to jump in but changed my mind!

 

[hessian]

A news item to consider...
China's hidden debt problem
6:32am: Despite robust growth, the world's third largest economy is potentially deeper in debt than originally thought. [More..]
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/27/news/international/china_debt.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009072706

 

[coolhand]

Today was looking like a good day to buy some but as we get closer to 12:00, its looking less and less...

Da Boyz aren't going to make this easy. Everyone's expecting a pullback, which means we won't get one.

 

[DCguy]

De Beers profit is down 99%
http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/markets-companies-and-funds/content.aspx?ID=351061

 

[Steadygain]

You're way too cocky. That's not what this board is about.

Having said all that, I'll also add that you do have some good things to add to the board,

Coolhand - I reflected over and over on this post over the weekend.

What is this Board all about ???


Of course I thought it was all about the TSP and to a certain degree that pretty much maintains a 'bottom line priority'

BUT OVERALL - I've come to find it's way more making connections and a place to both unload and take things in. A place to discover; a place to grow; a place to be cool with others and let others be cool with you.

I'd have to say YOU ARE ONE OF THE BEST !!

I really appreciate your posts a lot - you've got a good personality and your place is always a 'Welcome Visit'

THANK YOU !!

Steady

 

[coolhand]

Thanks Steady.

We are all seeking to find something here. Primarily how to manage our TSP accounts through any variation of strategies. No strategy is perfect, and time horizons and expectations vary among us.

It is a difficult challenge and no one is going to do it for us, so many of us find ourselves here at TSP Talk to learn, and share our experience, trials, and tribulations.

Along the way we will each have our ups and downs, but if we can learn and move forward each day, I think we will all benefit from the experience.

Coolhand - I reflected over and over on this post over the weekend.

What is this Board all about ???


Of course I thought it was all about the TSP and to a certain degree that pretty much maintains a 'bottom line priority'

BUT OVERALL - I've come to find it's way more making connections and a place to both unload and take things in. A place to discover; a place to grow; a place to be cool with others and let others be cool with you.

I'd have to say YOU ARE ONE OF THE BEST !!

I really appreciate your posts a lot - you've got a good personality and your place is always a 'Welcome Visit'

THANK YOU !!

Steady

 

[Frixxxx]

Coolhand - I reflected over and over on this post over the weekend.

What is this Board all about ???
BUT OVERALL - I've come to find it's way more making connections and a place to both unload and take things in.
THANK YOU !!

Steady

Steady, I think it's both, but the motto of this board is Friends don't let Friends Buy and Hold! Not that there's anything wrong with it.

Thanks Steady.

We are all seeking to find something here. Primarily how to manage our TSP accounts through any variation of strategies. No strategy is perfect, and time horizons and expectations vary among us.
Along the way we will each have our ups and downs, but if we can learn and move forward each day, I think we will all benefit from the experience.

Bingo Coolhand, I reviewed the last twelve months and determined that had someone with $10G (C Fund) held like our beloved Birchtree and put in "only what one could afford ($200pp)" their account would be down to $7250....that's really down $5000 dollars with matching contributions. If they pulled out of the market in September and went back in around April, they'd be around $12,000. This means they probably lost a few matching dollars.

I think Buy and Hold works great the more capital you have during lulls in the market....but fixed incomers can't adjust as rapidly and the rewards are slim when you are in the thick of things......

Disclaimer (fund management was considered at around 1 transaction per month and executed on the first....some numbers will be a little off due to lack of actual day-to-day data)

 

[Boghie]

Frixxxx,

I think TSPTalk may have done the calculations for you.

Under the AutoTrader there is an option to select 'Select Member Records'.

If you then find the chap you want to look at as a 'financial advisor wizard' and click the 'View Returns' link you will see the proverbial $10K invested since 2007/01/01.

I looked at some chaps that started later (like SawBonz) and their $10K thingy starts on the first date of entry. Scribbler (who apparently started on 2008/12/31) shows $10K and 0% annual growth at 2009/01/01.

Kinda a weird chart. The $10K mythical investment initiates on first day in AutoTrader (or 2007/01/01) while the % gain/loss centers on 2009/01/01 for an annual gain/loss. Still useful.

And, you are right... A $10K 'C Fund' buy and hold strategy would be worth $6962.56 now, 'S Fund' would be worth $7122.42, and 'I Fund' worth $6798.66.

I, however, would have only lost you a little money

But, CoolHand is a bit positive and the ever quiet Steady is even more positive (obviously - look at his prose :toung

 

[coolhand]

A news item to consider...
China's hidden debt problem
6:32am: Despite robust growth, the world's third largest economy is potentially deeper in debt than originally thought. [More..]
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/27/news/international/china_debt.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009072706

I wish I could post some stratfor stuff related to China. They pass on a lot of analysis in this area of the world. But I will tell you that they have significant problems to overcome. I am told that companies on the verge of collapse are using loans to pay for daily operations, and speculators are taking advantage of cheap interest rates to gamble in the stock and real estate markets, which is creating new bubbles in those sectors.

Sound familiar?

 

[Frixxxx]

Frixxxx,

I think TSPTalk may have done the calculations for you.

Under the AutoTrader there is an option to select 'Select Member Records'.

If you then find the chap you want to look at as a 'financial advisor wizard' and click the 'View Returns' link you will see the proverbial $10K invested since 2007/01/01.

I looked at some chaps that started later (like SawBonz) and their $10K thingy starts on the first date of entry. Scribbler (who apparently started on 2008/12/31) shows $10K and 0% annual growth at 2009/01/01.

Kinda a weird chart. The $10K mythical investment initiates on first day in AutoTrader (or 2007/01/01) while the % gain/loss centers on 2009/01/01 for an annual gain/loss. Still useful.

And, you are right... A $10K 'C Fund' buy and hold strategy would be worth $6962.56 now, 'S Fund' would be worth $7122.42, and 'I Fund' worth $6798.66.

I, however, would have only lost you a little money

But, CoolHand is a bit positive and the ever quiet Steady is even more positive (obviously - look at his prose :toung

Thanks for the review...did most of the math on the fly....I hate guessing, but I rounded for goodness sake...hahaha.. I really wanted to show that in a time slice.....a buy and hold strategy can be a negative impact to a newer investor....Thus, should be explained....

Even Birch "times the market" with his purchases. Buy the low-low...not the high-high.

Peace all, I'm out... we now return you to coolhands program, already in progress.....nice articles on China coolhand!

 

[Boghie]

Japan Part II...

CoolHand,

China hasn't got nothing without selling their stuff to us.
And, lately we haven't been buying...
Kinda looks like Japan, eh...

 

[alevin]

Frixxxx,


Under the AutoTrader there is an option to select 'Select Member Records'.

If you then find the chap you want to look at as a 'financial advisor wizard' and click the 'View Returns' link you will see the proverbial $10K invested since 2007/01/01.

I looked at some chaps that started later (like SawBonz) and their $10K thingy starts on the first date of entry. Scribbler (who apparently started on 2008/12/31) shows $10K and 0% annual growth at 2009/01/01.

Kinda a weird chart. The $10K mythical investment initiates on first day in AutoTrader (or 2007/01/01) while the % gain/loss centers on 2009/01/01 for an annual gain/loss.

Not sure your read on that chart is accurate, Boghie. I never looked at that particular chart before today, kept my own spreadsheet last year. I began Jan 08, but tracker records in that chart start 12/1/08 for me, nearly a year after I joined and started tracker. Where do you see that the $gain is from 1/1/07? or where somebody elses records start that early? Guess its time to ask Tom what's up.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Japan Part II...

CoolHand,

China hasn't got nothing without selling their stuff to us.
And, lately we haven't been buying...
Kinda looks like Japan, eh...

They also don't have the banking structure we have, which doesn't help.

In addition, the Chinese Government is very concerned about unemployment, as it can create unrest and internal strife which can translate into a threat to the Government itself if not controlled.

 

[coolhand]

This is the last week of the month before new IFTs. I've got one left. I know risk is elevated...again, but I'm looking for a quick trade before the real selling begins. Dip buyers are looking for a trade, which should provide short term support. Once that money's in the market we may turn hard to bag the new bulls. The big question is how strong the support will be in the short term.

Thoughts?

 

[turbo23dog]

I'm leaning bullish in the ST. With today looking like a good jumping in point, I'm just trying to decide how much and where to put it.

I'm assuming that SS is still showing a buy signal, right?

 

[coolhand]

I'm leaning bullish in the ST. With today looking like a good jumping in point, I'm just trying to decide how much and where to put it.

I'm assuming that SS is still showing a buy signal, right?

With only one IFT left I may go all in.

The SS still has 6 of 7 signals in buy mode as of yesterday's close.

 

[coolhand]

All in. :blink:

25/25/50 CSI. Any reversal this afternoon will lag in the I fund, which is partly why I overweighted it. I think this will be a short term play, but I have to see how support holds and what sentiment does. Volume on the S&P appears to be average so far.

 

[turbo23dog]

I moved 100 C.

Also noted Poolman made a move today too.... gotta feel good about that...

GL