coolhand's Account Talk

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In 2010 all timing transactions will be 1099s to the IRS - they will even get the purchase price. Nope, there will be no where for the hungry trader to hide. The most efficient approach will undoubtedly be a buy and hold forever strategy. Unless you want the IRS as an equal trading partner.
 
Researching The TSP Sentiment...

Coolhand,

I've been reviewing the 'Big Hitter' discussions in the 'Account Talk' section from October 2008 through the present. We had three huge bombs (October, November, and March) that present a very, VERY interesting picture in the rear view mirror.

You used to be far more bullish. Weren't we all. :)

I think - based on the gradual, and sustainable, upward slope since March 17 - that we should be 'in the market'. My fear has resulted in my return being only 40% of the growth since the low, and only 50% from the post boom point of March 17.

Also, the money on the sidelines has to see the next few months or maybe year as the last chance to make money before they have to adjust to new taxes and regulation. The growth will slow to a crawl soon.

We have to be in now because growth in the near future will be a Carteresque slug.

What is the Seven Sentinals saying? And, has it become overbearish via a computation change?
 
Re: Researching The TSP Sentiment...

Boghie said:
Coolhand,

What is the Seven Sentinals saying? And, has it become overbearish via a computation change?
Click to expand...

IYB says the SS is still on a sell and the thread I posted previously provides his position on this. It's very compelling.

We are again at a crossroads. We are back up towards the upper end of the channel, but the game has really not changed...yet. Missing the past week's gains was unfortunate, but I've made money since the last SS sell, perhaps 1.5% or so. The IFT regulations keep me more cautious than I might otherwise be, but don't forget the carnage from last year until the rebound this past March.

I am looking for a possible entry point in the event we see increased volume leading up to new highs. I might also enter a partial long position if we consolidate on mediocre volume too. OPEX is done for now, so it's time to see what the market is really made of.
 
Coolhand,

My instincts are like yours, but I think waiting will be catastrophic. I don't see any big dumps ahead - I mean, even after this huge run-up we are still at a region where most of the worst bear markets fall to. That tells us how miserable the last two years have been...

Once the market adjusts to a miserable market correction (-20% to -30%) rather than a miserable crash (the -40% we are currently at) then it will either get choppy again or run flat with no real gain. In either case, the game is over for C/S/I.

I've got to grab what I can because we are in for a Jimmy Carter Recovery soon. Once there, you may as well invest in bonds :sick: I'm very concerned, but I intrinsically know that the next four years of gain will occur in the next four months. Miss it and C/S/I will look like F/G.

Does anyone out there think raising taxes, increasing regulation, bloating union power, and protectionism is going to provide a Reagan recovery. Or will it do as it has done before - the Malaise Economy. :(

The Four Bad Bears

Off to the Padre game...:)
 
Boghie said:
Coolhand,

My instincts are like yours, but I think waiting will be catastrophic.

Catastrophic? Sounds like you've already made up your mind what you'll do next. Good luck. I may or may not join you. But I'm watching intently.

Off to the Padre game...:)
Click to expand...

Are they Ted Leitner's Padres these days? or "your" Padres. Ah Ted, I remember him from his KFMB News 8 days. Quite the entertainer.
 
Your Padres... Yuk, yuk

CoolHand,

They are mostly 'my' Padres for the most part this year. Ted is definitely at arms length this season. We lost our Cy Young Award pitcher and our awesome Number 2 for the year. Hopefully today's young pitcher steps up - he is supposed to be the next Peavy.

And, yeah, I think I'm going 'all in'. Spent the weekend watching the World Series of Poker; yuk, yuk... I just don't see anymore 6% daily crashes right now. I can survive the 2% - 3% down days. Just not day after day of 5% dumps.

My current fear is that we will soon be in a 5% equities growth period. That doesn't beat the G Fund by enough to play the game.

I think I will see ya all in soon.

From a friend's house...

Adios...
 
We will be approaching a market of stocks rather than a stomping stock market and diversification will be the winning strategy. But first comes SPX of 1300 to rescue all those 401K plans that held during the previous market panic. Life will be devine for the fearless investors who buy their ticket now.
 
Birchtree said:
We will be approaching a market of stocks rather than a stomping stock market and diversification will be the winning strategy. But first comes SPX of 1300 to rescue all those 401K plans that held during the previous market panic. Life will be devine for the fearless investors who buy their ticket now.
Click to expand...

I'll have some of what you're drinking...or smoking. :laugh:
 
That Bear Trap post is some serious technical analysis. The "Institutional Index", I've never heard of it before. Good link.
 
Yes Stickan is a lone voice in the wilderness - but he is not totally alone. He apparently believes in the principle of symmetry and sees the same massive reversal prospect that has me so excited. That was definitely some beautiful technical analysis and I'm much appreciative. Right now it looks like I'll be a buyer today. I'm going to go back and review his work again to imprint it on my minds eye. His concept of only a correction in a long term bull sounds familiar. No secular bear market nonsense for us.
 
I am in a bit of a quandary. I have a SS buy signal that's been interpreted as a sell and I'm seeing the market moving as if it's really a buy. I'm leaning bullish right now, but I'm not entirely convinced. I'm looking for weakness between now and tomorrow in which case I may commit some cash to equities, but it won't be a full commitment if it plays out that way. But I'm looking to play the bullish scenario at least part of the way at this point unless we do a convincing reversal soon. I don't expect to make a decision today, but tomorrow at the earliest.
 
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