coolhand's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Our TSP trading restrictions have a big impact on how I trade my account. Two trades and done in one month makes for very difficult trading. Time horizons need to be evaluated. I expect some selling this week. My call is for weakness through Tuesday, but I'm really not expecting it to be too significant. This should get the bears to move in expecting the world to come to an end and then da boys will trap them. After that I'm looking for strength the rest of the week.

The fed may very well cut rates again. Probably some time in December, but it will depend on how the market responds to current stimulus.

Since I have over 10 years till retirement, I don't want to take the chance of letting a once-in-a-lifetime buying opp slip away. I'm willing to take some risks here. I don't have to be right trade by trade as long as I do some hedging to manage it. I think that's how poolman trades right now.

I'm looking to make significant gains over the coming year using this strategy. While the volatility may be scary, it also provides for some very good trading opportunity.

I've realized recently that one way I can maximize my chances of catching big up moves is to move into the market in a big way. We can't buy stocks slowly, but they'll let us move to cash that way as many trades as we want. This past week, while I sold into the rally, I didn't do it aggressively as I just didn't perceive the risk to be to the downside. I was correct in my estimation thus far.

This coming week is the big test. I will tell you that if this market decides to move up from its current level around the 18dma, I think it will be look out above. Early weakness will not kill the rally either. It will take sustained, significant weakness right now to do that.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this unfolds. :cool:
 
I had not read this before today, and it makes an excellent case for the worst having been substantially priced in, undervalued stocks, and seasonality. Thanks.

I see that you are diversified and keeping 40% in G as insurance. Do you think that you would be more inclined to weigh heavier toward the C fund or the S fund at this time? How would you approach the impact of investors selling stocks at the beginning of December for Tax purposes and buying back 30 days later? This matter is foreign to me in terms of the most probable outlook with so many investors losing money this year.
 
airlift said:
I had not read this before today, and it makes an excellent case for the worst having been substantially priced in, undervalued stocks, and seasonality. Thanks.

I see that you are diversified and keeping 40% in G as insurance. Do you think that you would be more inclined to weigh heavier toward the C fund or the S fund at this time? How would you approach the impact of investors selling stocks at the beginning of December for Tax purposes and buying back 30 days later? This matter is foreign to me in terms of the most probable outlook with so many investors losing money this year.
Click to expand...

Good question. I know that an awful lot of pundits are calling a top in the dollar. Especially now that bailout amounts have soared to extreme levels. I am keeping an open mind here though. I am not convinced the dollar has topped. Mainly because there is no alternative global currency to the dollar. No other country or group of countries (EU) can take its place. There are few of them who are in better shape than we are either. There are no other economic engines like the US. None.

But, like I said I'm looking both ways here. If the dollar does decline, even in an orderly fashion, the I fund may not be a bad place to be. I'm fairly sure that if we continue to rally, so will the EFA. And if the dollar does weaken, I'd like some exposure to the I fund as well. Of course, if it resumes an upward move, then it'll be a drag.

But since I do have that 40% cash available, where would I put it?

I think 35/35/30 CSI should do nicely if I can buy on a dip. That gives me an overall 70% exposure to US stocks and just 30% International.
 
airlift said:
How would you approach the impact of investors selling stocks at the beginning of December for Tax purposes and buying back 30 days later? This matter is foreign to me in terms of the most probable outlook with so many investors losing money this year.
Click to expand...

I forgot to answer this part. I'm not sure too many folks are looking to sell for tax reasons after taking so many losses already. The Government will only allow $3,000 a year offset for losses, which is really paltry and not worth missing out on any significant rally. I just don't see this being an issue.
 
Do you have any expected entry point for entering a lower market and deploying the 40% you are currently keeping in the G fund? Or are you going to deploy the 40% on a gradual basis?
 
airlift said:
Do you have any expected entry point for entering a lower market and deploying the 40% you are currently keeping in the G fund? Or are you going to deploy the 40% on a gradual basis?
Click to expand...

Here's the problem; two trades a month. Three if you're all stox to start the month.

The volatility makes any entry point tricky. Or sell order for that matter. Especially given the severe swings we've seen late in the trading day. I could deploy 20% Monday, assuming we see a decline and then another 20% Tuesday if it continues. That gives me my two trades for the month and I have to stick it out the rest of the month. But I'd be able to sell into rallies as desired.

This is just an expectation and certainly I may do something different as the nature of the market reveals itself. But I can't deploy cash gradually with just two trades. I'm just going to have to pick my points of entry very carefully.

I'm not looking for a specific price or fib re-tracement level per se, again because of the volatility. I'm simply going to be looking to buy weakness. If it's on low volume that would be key. A low volume pullback would imply continued strength. I will definitely key on that.
 
Coolhand,
As you have stated, "I'm simply going to be looking to buy weakness. If it's on low volume that would be key. A low volume pullback would imply continued strength. I will definitely key on that."

Do you use an advanced trading software to determine volume? I look on at YAHOO and Bloomberg intraday for lack of access to better choices especially when I am at work -- which I avoid for good reason. Therefore, I hope to be able to follow a lead from you. Thanks in advance!
 
No software. Most of the time I'm at work too and can't monitor the markets like I'd like to. For this reason I follow a professional who gives me daily updates. I also monitor some trading boards to help give me an idea of what's going on.

Like you, I also use yahoo to monitor basic info.
 
I don't have any other source. Therefore, I will appreciate your updating or heads up if it is possible before IFT time - 12:00 Eastern time. Thanks.
 
Watch for volatility today. As hard down as we opened, we could see an intraday reversal as the bears all try to pile in.
 
At 11:59 my gut was telling me to wait till tomorrow to nibble more into CSI; I"m currently 85/5/10 G F C.
 
yeah, I get those gut feelings too and today was no exception. That's why I only pushed 15% more into stox.

Looking for more weakness tomorrow, but I'm afraid the bulls will decide to all pile in at the last hour of trading like they've done in the past. Especially if the follow-on weakness is significant like today.

Didn't expect to see this much selling so soon, but I did expect to see it at the beginning of the week. We'll see how it goes. :cool:
 
Got jury duty today. :(

Looking for a reversal around SPX 768. Doubt I'll be able to watch the markets much.
 
Lunch break. Would you believe the courthouse has an internet cafe? :D

The Seven Sentinels system I spoke about in my blog went on a solid buy last week. After yesterday's sell-off it was still showing 5 of 7 buy signals and today is back to all seven at a buy. I point this out to help folks see how this system does over the next few weeks. Right now it's looking for an Intermediate Term uptrend.

It does not swing back and forth easily between sells and buys according the the developer.
 
The S&P 500 has dropped over 50 points 18 times this year - can we get some relief for December and have a few to the upside.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
Are stocks ready to pause / pullback?
Replies
0
Views
180
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks bounce back on Turnaround Tuesday. Nvidia earnings next
Replies
0
Views
113
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks near all time highs entering September
Replies
0
Views
138
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
A big rally heading into Friday's jobs report? Is it a trap?
Replies
0
Views
109
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Powell talks, stocks skyrocket
Replies
0
Views
124
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top