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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
Those are small parts of the bigger picture and indicative of what's to come. I believe things will not turn around for at least one more quarter, and I'm trying to be optimistic here. But at some point Longer Term buyers are going to come back, because sooner or later the selling has to stop. We may bottom and move sideways for some time, but sooner or later the bottom will finally be put in. I suspect we're in for a rough ride in the meantime.
coolhand
Well-known member
Trader's Talk 5-day Fully Long/Fully Short ratio was nearing a buy after Friday's end of day rally. All it needed was a turn of trend and some breadth to give a buy signal, which it looks like we may be getting today.
We are spring loaded for a big move higher and may go longer than some think. The bears will be looking to short after any run-up and could get crushed in the process. Things could still be volatile, but I'm going to hold at least one more day and maybe two depending on how this plays out. Friday is a short trading day and although I haven't checked yet, TSP.gov is probably not open for IFTs, so that needs to be considered for any trading plans.
Still, I'm taking this one day at a time as things are quite fluid.
coolhand
Well-known member
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Thanks for the link coolhand,
It gives me some solace that at least someone else is wondering if this is a bull rally or just a "fed throwing money at the problem" rally. There sure seems to be more bad news out there than good and it makes it tough to pick a spot to get it, especially when limited as we are. If you miss the take off you can't afford to catch the tail, when it may be so short lived.
CB
coolhand
Well-known member
It would be reasonable for the market to pull back today, but if it doesn't it may mean a good low is in place...for now. Of course only time will tell and will probably take more than today's action to get a good read.
The confusion over rallies is what I like to see. That's how the boyz like to play this game and why the bears need to be careful here.
coolhand
Well-known member
Found this comment on another board and it's from a poster who's well respected:
30 year fixed mortgage rate is down to 5.25% and still dropping- 50 Basis point drop in last few hours. Wells Fargo and Security National are so swamped with rate locks that their entire Web networks have crashed. They are taking locks by phone. The risk premium has dropped off big time. Looks like the banking system finally may be getting some traction which, if true, would indicate a sea change is occurring. And we may be starting a refi boom of unprecendented porportions, as every mortgage in America is or will soon be "over market".
Let's see if it holds this time- my gut says it will. But we've had a lot of false starts over last 120 days, so caution still the order of the day. "May you live in interesting times."
coolhand
Well-known member
I had to think about what you said some more before I commented further, because I wasn't completely sure why you had to point out that the traders here are pretty good too.
Please understand, I don't feel that folks here aren't plugged in to what's going on in the markets. Far from it really. It's part of the reason why I came back to the website. There's a lot of good information put out here and I'm looking to tap into it, but I also want to share my own experiences.
As I thought about my approach here it occurred to me that I tend to post the same way I execute work requirements at my agency (I do a lot of analysis and reports). I qualify everything. It's become habit. I tend to point out where I get info and why I think it's important. It's a good thing really. It's kinda like a reporter revealing his source information. Or writing a report in college and citing your source info.
I do have a lot of respect for this site and its members. It's gotten better with age and other sites and day traders use it as a barometer for sentiment purposes (I hate to tell you, but we're still seen as dumb money :laugh
.
In any event, I'm getting more familiar with a lot of new faces so-to-speak and I like what I see and I'm very happy to be a part of it again.
Minnow
Well-known member
I had to think about what you said some more before I commented further, because I wasn't completely sure why you had to point out that the traders here are pretty good too.
Please understand, I don't feel that folks here aren't plugged in to what's going on in the markets. Far from it really. It's part of the reason why I came back to the website. There's a lot of good information put out here and I'm looking to tap into it, but I also want to share my own experiences.
As I thought about my approach here it occurred to me that I tend to post the same way I execute work requirements at my agency (I do a lot of analysis and reports). I qualify everything. It's become habit. I tend to point out where I get info and why I think it's important. It's a good thing really. It's kinda like a reporter revealing his source information. Or writing a report in college and citing your source info.
I do have a lot of respect for this site and its members. It's gotten better with age and other sites and day traders use it as a barometer for sentiment purposes (I hate to tell you, but we're still seen as dumb money :laugh.
In any event, I'm getting more familiar with a lot of new faces so-to-speak and I like what I see and I'm very happy to be a part of it again.
If you read anything other than the highest respect for you, then I apologize. When you began re-posting I read many of your old posts and you and I seem to share many of the same opinions and outlooks and it also seems we both have a bit of gambler in us as well.
I believe you about the "dumb money" thing --- doesn't get much "dumb monier" than me -- but I'm getting better. Would've been better without the whole 2 IFT thing (don't get me started).
My post was more of a pro-TSPTalk cheer more than anything else.
Like I said, keep up the good work -- I get way more out of this website than I can ever put back in -- doesn't mean I won't try though.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours Coolhand!!!
coolhand
Well-known member
Thanks. Same to you and your family as well!
No apology necessary Minnow, I just wanted to make sure I wasn't misunderstood. I hate when that happens.
coolhand
Well-known member
This may have been posted elsewhere here, but it's important for us to monitor whether mortgage rates begin to have an impact on the market as a whole. I may keep a position in stox just in case it does.
http://tinyurl.com/5wufva
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Down again today.
coolhand
Well-known member
A lot of indicators may not click in unison. It will still take time, but the market looks forward and makes its bets months ahead of time.
I have to keep reminding myself that the news is not going to get better any time soon. We shouldn't expect it. The news and data are now programmed to be ugly. Pessimism is almost programmed that way now too. We can get caught up in it. It takes discipline to stay on an even keel.
I am just as concerned about turning a corner (up) in the market and not recognizing it as I am about turning back lower in a meaningful way. Right now I think the bulls have to be favored. I have 25% in cash to buy any dips and 75% in stox to take advantage of the current indicators.
Yesterday's Mortgage Rate revelation should not be taken lightly. It's potentially big. And it's not a one-time stimulus either. A refi can knock quite a bit off a monthly mortgage payment. Get enough of those going in the market and you've got some serious stimulus.
So we have to ask ourselves; was the recent rally simply an oversold bounce? Or did da boyz know something that we didn't.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
tough choices we have....
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Very good points.
Concerning mortgage rates, they need to stay down for the long term. When the gov. took over FNM/FRE, rates dropped because they said it would, but it only lasted a week. Also, I believe folks need 20% equity and a good credit score to qualify. Weak holiday sales might be a catalyst for another leg down.
coolhand
Well-known member
I'm thinking mortgage rates will stay down. They have a lot of foreclosures to head off and they've also got to get money moving through the economy again. The rules will certainly change with respect to lending, but apparently the banks are finding a lot of qualified folks right now.
My Father-in-Law got a call from Countrywide a few days ago trying to strike a new deal with him to keep him in his house. His situation is different than most as he's a widower with little income and he simply can't afford the house any more since his wife passed away (it dropped household income). The renter's currently in it have not paid rent in months due to lack of work.
At 80 years of age he can't be expected to work any more and doesn't get around as well as he used to (which is why he now lives with me). But the point is the banks are working hard to stem the losses.
The news has been almost nothing but bad. Sooner or later we will not get the same reaction like we've seen the past couple months. I don't know when that may happen, but I'm looking for it. It could be occuring right now.
I'd sure hate to be on the sidelines if we move back up to SPX 1,000 and stay there.
Of course, I'd feel justified on the sidelines if we move back down too.
What can I say. I don't trust the market one way or the other. The big money want's our money too and they're more than happy to play games with us to get it.
turbo23dog
Member
I'm starting to think which choice would be the lesser of two evils:
miss a possbile SP move up, or,
miss a possible SP move down.
I tend to agree with the opinions that the markets will move downward sometime in Q1 2009. But what of the near term, say the next 30 days?
We sure are on a one way ticket up this morning off the opening lows.Similar threads
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