coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

He has been calling for a melt-up since the beginning of the yr. He has been correct.

You STILL Haven't Missed the 'Melt Up' Yet!

He's one of the ones I used to be plugged into. Is he recommending the NAZ and RUT?

 

[nasa1974]

It's surprising a lot of seasoned pros; many of whom were expecting a deeper correction over the Summer. But October has been known to dish out surprises on occasion.

True, but except for 2008 and 2009 October hasn't had more than one down year (in a row) since 1995.

 

[coolhand]

True, but except for 2008 and 2009 October hasn't had more than one down year (in a row) since 1995.

Honestly, I don't expect a big sell-off. Not without some kind of major geopolitical event occurring. The RUT is in rally mode, likely because the tax cuts narrative is good for stocks. Global money is probably finding its way into our stock market too.

 

[Mcqlives]

Honestly, I don't expect a big sell-off. Not without some kind of major geopolitical event occurring. The RUT is in rally mode, likely because the tax cuts narrative is good for stocks. Global money is probably finding its way into our stock market too.

I, with much hoping, agree...and the EU continuing QE when ours is going into tightening could easily explain our bond inequity as well.

 

[coolhand]

Summer and has come and gone and the market is sporting new highs and we are not even in the 6 month positive cycle.



There's nothing wrong with this chart if you're a bull. Fresh all-time and no overhead resistance.



Amazing how far this index has traveled since mid-August. And the like the S&P 500, no overhead resistance to deal with.



When I tell you that cumulative breadth is very bullish, this is the chart I'm looking at. Not only is the signal hitting fresh all-time highs, but the 21 day EMA has not crossed the 39 day EMA in a long time. August was looking shaky for a bit, but now it's a distant memory.

The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish. Our TSP Talk survey is neutral. This market is not acting frothy at all. There are other sentiment surveys that more on the bearish side. That tells me we may not be anywhere near a top, though a pullback is always possible. What I mean by that is any pullback is likely to get bought.

I am sitting in cash the past few trading days, abandoning my TZA position in the face of a relentless drive higher in the small cap space. I'll be one of those dip buyers if we get one.

 

[coolhand]

The market seems to be making a huge statement as the indexes start out the week with another big gain. Breadth is extremely bullish. The OEX P/C is bullish for Tuesday. It's really an amazing run to the upside. Good job to those who have been riding it.

 

[coolhand]

We got more gains on Tuesday, but some indicators suggest weakness for Wednesday. That does not necessarily mean the market is ready to rollover at this point, so I'd not get too bearish just yet.



The S&P 500 has now traveled higher by more than 100 points since the mid-August bottom. Momentum is still rising, but RSI is overbought.



The DWCPF paints a more dramatic picture. The past few weeks has definitely been a buy and holder's market. RSI is very overbought on the DWCPF.

Cumulative breadth obviously remains bullish. The options look bearish for Wednesday. Futures are down, but not a lot. I'd look lower for Wednesday, but how much dip buying will we see? Any weakness does have the potential to carryover beyond Wednesday, but it's predictability is not certain by any means. The risk remains to the upside; short-term weakness notwithstanding.

 

[coolhand]

We had a mixed trading day today. I thought the market would trade lower, but it really didn't muster much downside at all. The options are now neutral heading into Thursday. Breadth dipped, but that has not meant much over the last few weeks. The bigger picture is one of serious bullish market behavior. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

Are there any bears left? Only if they're hedged.



Even a technical novice can read this chart. Yeah, it's overbought and momentum is starting to get buried to the upside, but would you be willing to bet against this rally?



Same story here.

So, breadth dipped on Wednesday (modestly) and then turned to hit fresh all-time highs today. NAAIM came in bullish again (there's a surprise). The options are neutral for Friday. My intermediate term system is bullish.

We're overbought. By itself, that isn't enough to bet too much against this market. But we sure are due for some profit taking, though with breadth and liquidity plastered to the overhead it would be very speculative to bet against more upside.

 

[coolhand]

The C and S funds tacked on impressive weekly gains yet again last week. The I fund was largely flat.



Price on the S&P 500 pulled back just a bit on Friday. RSI remains overbought, while momentum stalled.



The DWCPF also dipped on Friday. RSI remains overbought here as well.

Sentiment is fairly bullish. NAAIM certainly remained bullish as they have for months now. The options are on the neutral side. TSP Talk came in heavily beared up and that might be a problem for the bulls, but in this market I'd not bet big on it. Cumulative breadth dipped on Friday, but remains solidly bullish. My intermediate term system remains bullish, but is showing possible signs of upside fatigue and there's an outside chance it's beginning to hint at a pullback of more than modest proportion on the horizon. With the bearish TSP Talk sentiment and early weakening of my intermediate term system, the market may be nearing a bout of downside pressure. Still, the indicators overall are too bullish as yet to take that very seriously.

 

[coolhand]

Both indexes closed lower to start the new week. Momentum is turning down and RSI remains overbought. The options are leaning bearish for Tuesday, so maybe some downside follow through? It's likely a buying opportunity if we get it.

 

[Robo5555]

Hope it is a buying opportunity, So that we can continue to the upside.

Sent from my Z981 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

I need to amend my comments below for Tuesday. The options are bullish, not bearish, so we'll likely bounce. Wednesday has a better chance of some downside follow through.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said the options were leaning bullish and that Monday's weakness would probably be followed by a bounce a Tuesday. Check. I also said that Wednesday was the more likely day for another bout of weakness. The options are leaning bearish, so we have a reasonable chance for some downside action. However, this market is not acting like one that is on the verge of a major sell-off. Breadth turned back up and is and has been very bullish. The bulls are still very much in control. I'm looking to buy weakness.

 

[JamesE]

Concur. Fools errand fighting market strength and liquidity. Guess I'm a buyer on any weakness at all...

 

[coolhand]

No change to my current market expectations. I patiently waited for a better entry to go long, but this market is more likely to go parabolic than sell down hard. So I took a long position in TNA. This may not be a short-term trade. I think there is just too much potential upside as we slowly head toward the holidays to try and second guess this market. Breadth is still rising. The options are now neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow. Any bets they're not heavily bullish? :laugh:

 

[JamesE]

Concur. Fools errand fighting market strength and liquidity. Guess I'm a buyer on any weakness at all...

Went in 50% I fund. If things go south, I'm pushing the rest in. EFA is the big winner this year, writing is on the wall.

 

[Robo5555]

I agree with you, some investors are saying that we are on the hill approaching a cliff but I believe that dip buyers and tailwind will keep us away from the cliff. As CH stated, holidays are around the corner as well. This could be one of those years that the I fund may reach a high twenty to a thirty percent gain and the C & S funds approach the twenty percent range. Any thoughts?

 

[coolhand]

I agree with you, some investors are saying that we are on the hill approaching a cliff but I believe that dip buyers and tailwind will keep us away from the cliff. As CH stated, holidays are around the corner as well. This could be one of those years that the I fund may reach a high twenty to a thirty percent gain and the C & S funds approach the twenty percent range. Any thoughts?

While some of the main sentiment surveys I follow are largely on the bullish side, many others show significant bearishness. NAAIM has been bullish for a long time now and they've not been wrong when taken in the long-term context. Breadth and liquidity will continue to trample the bears as long as they remain in their current configurations. We can't know the future with certainty, but it sure looks bullish to my eye. If anything changes, I'll certainly pass that along.

 

[JamesE]

Agreed. Within the trading restrictions of tsp, have to take these opportunities when they come around. If there is a dip of any kind I'm pushing my other 50% in.