coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

ha! i knew there was a reason i liked you!

i've been prepping for some time now myself too, although a bit more of a lackadaisical approach. mostly just stackin lead, copper, silver, and gold. and making friends with local mormons. did you know every good mormon has a 2-year supply of food and water? my thinking is a) when the rapture hits and they get taken up to heaven then they won't need that stuff anymore, and b) if not then i will just convert - lord save my soul - plus i have other skills that might come in handy during the apocalypse and that is how i'm gonna pay for my supper. plan c) is to drive full tilt for leather to utah get the hell out of my way because i know how that place operates and it is full of good people. i'm a practical man.

This looks like a good segway into my favorite evangelical Christian bible teacher, Chuck Missler. Have lots of his DVDs on all things rapture and the second coming of Christ. Been studying his teachings quite a bit. He's not your typical bible teacher. Check out his bio if you aren't familiar with him.

 

[userque]

This looks like a good segway into my favorite evangelical Christian bible teacher, Chuck Missler. Have lots of his DVDs on all things rapture and the second coming of Christ. Been studying his teachings quite a bit. He's not your typical bible teacher. Check out his bio if you aren't familiar with him.

I like him too. He has more of an .... academic approach. Few are like him. [And few discuss the topics he covers.]

 

[coolhand]

The market took a breather on Thursday. I'm sitting in cash right now after selling my TNA position yesterday. I'm looking for an opportunity to jump into TZA next, assuming the market is ready for a decent pullback.



Strength and momentum both turned down. The chart looking toppy at face value.



Momentum is hinting at turning down on the DWCPF. RSI is still largely flat.

Tops can take a few days to build, so there's room for more upside, though the size of any more in that direction may not be inspiring. NAAIM remains bullish, but not overly so. They still are not taking any short interest in this market. That's a warning to the bears. Downside moves have been much harder to play then upside moves.
Breadth is looking flat, but still positive. The A/D line on the NYSE is bullish. Overall, I am not thrilled with either the bullish or bearish case at the moment. I'm neutral heading into Friday.

 

[coolhand]

Took a 25% position in TZA earlier today. That doesn't necessarily mean a sell-off is imminent, but it does appear a top is being built. I may add to that position as the market dictates.

Short positions are more risky than long ones in this market.

 

[coolhand]

I said I was looking higher for last week's action and the market soared.



The S&P 500 closed out the week at a fresh all-time high on volume, but momentum is weakening and strength is largely flat.



The DWCPF fared well last week and momentum here is still rising.

The market has rallied significantly off the mid-August bottom and I would anticipate that it won't be long before we see some downside. The charts are bullish. Breadth is very bullish as is liquidity. NAAIM is still bullish, though not as much as they were. The OEX P/C is bullish for Monday. Most of my indicators look very bullish, though my intermediate term system remains negative, but it's been just one signal away from flipping positive for at least a week now. The fact that so much is looking so good should be reason to start getting defensive. I took a 25% position in TZA on Friday, but I am not comfortable with it given breadth and liquidity. I may put on a hedge just in case. A top may not be in, but I'm thinking it can't be far off. We'll see.

 

[coolhand]

Monday's bullish set-up led to more gains for the market; especially the DWCPF as small caps soared once more.



Another all-time high for the S&P 500.



The DWCPF tagged its all-time high today (double top?). Momentum is still rising.

The action seems to suggest that this market could have more juice left, though it is still overbought and in need of a pullback. The problem for the bears is that breadth and liquidity remain darn bullish. This market is being driven higher.

The options are looking neutral for Tuesday. I have the feeling that the bulls are not done yet.

 

[coolhand]

No charts this evening. The action was a little on the flat side. While I have been leaning toward the bearish side of late, I also knew that tops could take a bit of time to form. It looks like we may yet see an attempt at more upside on Wednesday as the options look bullish. Short-term bullish bias aside, I also still think the market is setting up for some selling. Bearish action in a bull market tends not to happen when we are ready for it. It likes to wear out the bears before making its move. I'm still sitting in a 25% TZA position, but looking for an opportunity to increase that exposure on strength, should we get it.

 

[coolhand]

The market eked out some more gains on Wednesday, which the options market seemed to suggest would happen. Heading into Thursday however, the OEX P/C is now bearish, so that could bring some weakness. Still, it may not amount to much with some of my other key indicators still quite bullish.




Fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500 and DWCPF today.

I did not notice it on Thursday, but my intermediate term system finally flipped positive. Breadth and liquidity are soaring and remain key obstacles for the bears (as usual).

For tomorrow, I think the market tries to pull back, but as long as breadth and liquidity remain as bullish as they are, the market isn't likely to give the bears much to work with.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

I said yesterday that I thought the market would try to pull back, but that it wasn't likely to amount to much as long as breadth and liquidity remained in bullish configurations.

We got some weakness, but it wasn't all that much. Breadth and liquidity did weaken, but not a lot. It could be the early start of something, but I'd not get too bearish yet.




The S&P 500 pulled back some, though volume was on the lighter side. Momentum, which had been weakening for days, had a negative signal line cross today. The DWCPF shows a similar picture, though momentum has hardly turned.

The OEX P/C went neutral for Friday, so the options are no help. NAAIM shows some bearish activity, which I have not seen in months, but it's not a lot of activity. Collectively, this is still a bullish group overall.

For Friday, I am neutral. We are due more selling, but the set-up is hardly convincing for any serious downside weakness.

 

[coolhand]

Last week, I had thought (earlier in the week) that a top might not be far off. But as the days played out, I could see that the bulls had other ideas about market direction.

But the C fund (S&P 500) really didn't get much upside traction. The DWCPF posted gains of 10X the S&P 500 last week. That's bullish.

And it's no wonder when breadth and liquidity are as bullish as they are.



As you can see, the S&P 500 posted marginal gains last week. Momentum has been weakening, but not so much price.



The DWCPF posted gains of about 1% last week and sits at a fresh all-time high. Momentum has been on an upside tear, but RSI is bumping up against an overbought condition.

NAAIM is still bullish, but showing modest signs of bearish activity. The options are bullish for Monday, so we're likely to see yet more upside. Breadth and liquidity are pouding the bears.

I still have my somewhat modest position in TZA and I obviously pulled the trigger too fast on that one, but I can recover easily enough. For next week, I'm leaning bullish, but only as long as breadth and liquidity stay elevated. The market is extended, but it seems intent on getting more extended. We'll just have to let it play out.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Hmmm,

Besides the RSI being near over-bought levels, are the charts themselves showing the S&P and the DWCPF already just past peak and starting to roll over??

 

[coolhand]

Hmmm,

Besides the RSI being near over-bought levels, are the charts themselves showing the S&P and the DWCPF already just past peak and starting to roll over??

Rolling over, or forming a bull flag? The DWCPF is not rolling over. It just closed at a fresh all-time high. Momentum is still bullish. Breadth and liquidity are bullish too.

A correction can come at any time, but the indicators are not projecting it.

 

[coolhand]

The indicators were leaning decidedly bullish for Monday, but we got some weakness instead. It was due. I note that small caps were a bit bullish once more despite most other major indexes closing lower.




The DWCPF closed flat, but the S&P 500 lost a bit more ground. It is still not a bearish picture other than the market remains extended to the upside. Breadth is hitting all-time highs and that remains a significant obstacle for the bears. This evening, the OEX P/C is leaning heavily bearish. That's smart money. We may get some downside follow through on Tuesday. I'm cautiously bearish, but not willing to add to my TZA position with breadth so bullish.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking for weakness on Tuesday. The OEX P/C was leaning heavily bearish, but the market shrugged off the smart money and traded a bit higher. The close was on the weak side, but hey, breadth hit fresh all-time highs and we know how bullish this indicator is. There is little interest in trading this market down right now.




For Wednesday, the OEX P/C flipped bullish, while the CBOE P/C is neutral. Breadth and liquidity are driving the market in favor of the bulls and until that relents there is not much reason to fight it. I am neutral to bullish for Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

While the S&P 500 rallied to a fresh all-time high, small caps are on fire and have seen almost no pullback. Today's action in the Russell 2000 looked like a short squeeze as it seemed to come out of nowhere. The index was already overbought and then it launched higher by almost 2%.




You can see how the DWCPF is benefiting from the rally in the Russell.

For Thursday, nothing has changed. The options are neutral, but breadth and liquidity are very bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

Fresh highs again on Thursday. Breadth remains on a tear to the upside. The options are on the bearish side for Friday. NAAIM came in more bullish and the shift was large enough to be bearish in the very short term. We may see some selling over the next couple of days or so, but breadth may very well temper any downside. I don't see any serious downside risk as yet.

 

[nasa1974]

Fresh highs again on Thursday. Breadth remains on a tear to the upside. The options are on the bearish side for Friday. NAAIM came in more bullish and the shift was large enough to be bearish in the very short term. We may see some selling over the next couple of days or so, but breadth may very well temper any downside. I don't see any serious downside risk as yet.

Let's hope a correction doesn't take us too much by surprise. Loving the new highs. September has been good overall.

 

[coolhand]

Let's hope a correction doesn't take us too much by surprise. Loving the new highs. September has been good overall.

It's surprising a lot of seasoned pros; many of whom were expecting a deeper correction over the Summer. But October has been known to dish out surprises on occasion.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Humm... that is kinda what I'm counting on... Will see... Gotta jump in some day! :smile: Best wishes to you!

Feeling like I completely missed the party this Summer. uggh

 

[Valkyrie]

Fresh highs again on Thursday. Breadth remains on a tear to the upside. The options are on the bearish side for Friday. NAAIM came in more bullish and the shift was large enough to be bearish in the very short term. We may see some selling over the next couple of days or so, but breadth may very well temper any downside. I don't see any serious downside risk as yet.

He has been calling for a melt-up since the beginning of the yr. He has been correct.

You STILL Haven't Missed the 'Melt Up' Yet!