coolhand's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
I'm now looking for weakness that has the potential to test the previous lows. Any significant selling pressure will trigger buy signals, so I anticipate getting long again (for me it will be SPXL) over the next day or three (need a window). If I have time, I'll jump into the S fund with TSP (I still work full-time).
 
No charts this evening given the relatively flat close. There is no change to my last post. I'm still anticipating a move lower that I believe would offer a reasonable entry point to get long. The OEX P/C is neutral, but the CBOE is bearish for Tuesday. That's not enough by itself to bank on some selling on Tuesday, but the flat close today suggests to me that the chances have increased for weakness. In fact, futures are plunging as I write this.
 
I bought the early decline in the premarket this morning as I said I would. I split my account (not TSP) between SPXL and TNA and picked up a nice gain of about 2%. I sold my position minutes before the close. Why? My gut. That may not be technical, but that's what I did when the market popped to the upside more than 2 weeks ago and that one was good for more than 4% with a hard decline just 3 days later and little upside in between. The current market is set up for more upside in some ways, but my level of trust is not what it once was. I am happy with jumps in and out; especially if I can do with profits.

Let's look at where we are now.

S&P 500.png

While the S&P 500 is showing a sizeable white candlestick, most of it is below the previous day's close. Gains on the day were paltry, but if you bought the dip, you had a chance to bag some gains. There may be more, but that 50 dma is still above current price on this chart and there is still not a higher high achieved. I was not comfortable with the index just getting back to even either. I was hoping for a short-covering rally and we didn't get it.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF did about the same thing, but closed just below the neutral line. Not particularly impressive, was it?

The options are looking neutral to me as we head toward Wednesday. Breadth is positive, but looks tentative and not far above the negative line. My intermediate term system is still negative and has been trying to improve.

What bothers me most is what I stated above. I did not like the flat close. It may be bullish that the indexes retraced their losses, but volume has not been impressive. Where's the conviction in the turn back up? I really need to see what the market does over the next day or two. Let's see if that negative reversal has any legs.
 
We got the upside that I thought we'd get today, though I certainly had my reservations about that and was unwilling to play for it. The technical indicators improved too.

S&P 500.png

Price on the S&P got back over the 50 dma, which is bullish. Momentum is gathering upside strength strength.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF is looking better too, but the 50 dma is still a bit further up the ladder. Momentum is rising here too.

The options are neutral. My intermediate term system wants to turn positive, but TRIN is holding it back. Breadth is on the rise and looking better (it's positive).

More upside may be in store. Today's action certainly improved the bullish case, but there may still be another shot back down to shake off newly minted bulls before a more significant rally. I am keeping my powder dry for now as I look for another good entry point. I prefer odds that are decidedly in my favor.
 
Momentum continued to carry the major averages higher on Wednesday as the upside reversal extended its reach.

SPX.jpg

We now have a gap below as price rallied and closed not far from the highs achieved a few weeks ago.

DWCPF.jpg

The DWCPF sliced through its 50 dma, but it remains well below its July high.

The indicators are now getting a bit stretched and more are flipping positive. Interestingly, my intermediate term system remains negative. The OEX P/C is bullish for Friday, as is the CBOE P/C. The market is probably going to probe higher, but selling pressure is likely not far behind. Now that things are looking bullish gain, it's time to look for a pullback. I may take a shot at TZA and SPXS on additional strength Friday. This would be a quick play if the early action is favorable for a short.
 
One week ago, I said that we may have seen the bottom even as the signals remained mixed. Last week's rally confirmed the bottom as the broader market marched smartly higher for most of the week.

S&P 500.png

Price on the S&P 500 is now flirting with resistance near the 2480 area. Momentum is rising, but is now getting a bit extended.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF has rallied significantly over the past 2 weeks, but remains well off its all-time high.

NAAIM is showing caution, but remains bullish. The TSP Talk weekly sentiment is showing rising bullishness and is getting close to getting overly bullish, though I think it's still neutral. The options are leaning somewhat bearish for Tuesday.

Cumulative breadth is very bullish and rising, but may be getting extended. My intermediate term system is still negative, but has been very close to a positive condition for the last several days. Friday's close saw TRIN close at a very low level, which is bearish for Tuesday.

For next week, I am leaning bearish, but I am not looking for a deep decline. The market is due some weakness after several up days and we have some indicators that support that possible outcome. NAAIM remains bullish, but appears to be reining in their long positions; going to cash rather than flipping short.
 
My bearish leanings for this week appear to be spot on as Tuesday opened up the week with some heavy selling pressure.

S&P 500.png

The S&P 500 probed below its 50 dma during intraday trading, but rallied back to close well above that key support line. Momentum has turned back down.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF also sold down and bounced, but price settled just under its 50 dma.

The options are looking bearish heading into Wednesday, so the sellers may not be done just yet. Breadth has turned down, but remains positive. My intermediate term system remains negative, believe it or not. TRIN remains at a very low level and that supports the option's bearish lean.

I may not be posting over the next 2 or 3 days as I am on the road enjoying some time off. I'll be in the St. Augustine area of Florida; a nice place to kick back every now and then.
 
Thanks folks. :smile:

I have a counter top water filter that is top notch. It also has filters to remove fluoride. I highly recommend one of these vice buying bottled water. It will save you money over the long haul and you can trust that your water will be pure.

Big Berkey Water Filters - Largest Dealer Of Berkey Products

I have the Royal Berkey. I also keep several 3 and 5 gal jugs for storage not to mention a 63 gal water barrel in the garage. As if that's enough, I have a water bladder for the tub too. :smile:

Yeah, I'm a prepper. :D
 
If you can't find bottled water, you can go the camping section of any sports store or Walmart and get water containers (I think they are 2 gallons) and fill up with the tap.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - So long, February!
Replies
0
Views
144
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Optimism with Caution
Replies
1
Views
443
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Small caps save the Santa Claus Rally while large caps failed
Replies
0
Views
182
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bears show up, but the bulls didn't give up
Replies
0
Views
148
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The PPI and tariff talk sent yields lower and stocks higher
Replies
0
Views
149
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top