coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Just one chart tonight. This one matters most as it's the most visible to the masses. What we see is price now testing that line of resistance. It would be easy to look for a reversal here, but this also looks like it could be a bear trap. With breadth and liquidity solidly positive, the chances of a break to the upside is very real. But weakness may come first to suck in more bears (head fake). This could get interesting.

 

[mikekellyonline]

Let it continue to sink until the first when our IFT's reset...

 

[coolhand]

Let it continue to sink until the first when our IFT's reset...

I still have my IFTs, but I'm also already completely invested with the exception of some recent contributions to the G fund.

A sizeable pullback in the short-term, while certainly not out of the question, could be touch with the S&P 500 pressing up against resistance again. I think it's just a matter of time before it shoots well past that barrier.

 

[coolhand]

It isn't decisive, but it's still a fresh high as price managed to close just above that area of resistance today. If you're a bear, you might be telling yourself that volume has fallen off a bit as price as edged higher and that may seem to indicate that a turn is near, but I see it as a higher risk outcome with breadth and liquidity solidly bullish. We have not seen anything resembling a long-term top yet and the market is hardly acting like a bear.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. They've been steadfastly bullish for some time now.

 

[coolhand]

Okay, today's pop to the upside on the S&P 500 puts the bears on notice. There could be much more where that came from now that price has decisively cleared previous resistance. That means there is no resistance overhead until another plateau is formed.



Volume was a bit higher on today's move. Momentum is still stretching out to the upside.



I've been saying that the DWCPF will almost certainly follow the S&P 500 if the large caps hit fresh highs. That's been true, but the not to the extent I'd like. Small caps are not leading the market, which is not what we want to see, but it's possible they play catch-up at some point. Price tested some minor resistance today and could not close above it. I suspect it will test it again very soon.

NAAIM came in yet more bullish today. And this time, what few bears there were last week disappeared. That's bullish, especially now that the S&P 500 is sitting at a fresh all-time high. The OEX P/C is heavily bullish for Friday. Breadth and liquidity obviously remain bullish.

I am looking for more strength tomorrow, and it may very well carry over into next week too.

 

[coolhand]

Some of you on the message board are aware that I have a co-worker who reached out to Birchtree a couple of years ago to check on him. He said he was fine at that time. My friend talked to him again today and he says he is still fine and bullish (there's a surprise ). He also said he was on the wrong side of oil trade, but holding on. He was told about the fact that many miss him and ask about him. My friend requested that he stop by the board sometime and he said he would, but we'll have to see whether he does or not. It may or may not be soon.

I just wanted to pass this along as I know some of you would appreciate knowing he's still lurking out there.

 

[nnuut]

That's cool Coolhand, I was worried about his sudden silence.

 

[coolhand]

Not much changed today.



After running higher for several days, the S&P 500 pulled back modestly to the start the new week. No surprise here.



The DWCPF stuck to its recent playbook and led the S&P 500 to the downside. The 50 dma may get tested from here.

This modest to moderate pullback is likely setting up the next move higher. The OEX P/C is neutral now and that suggests we are headed for some choppy action on Tuesday.

 

[Scout333]

Wonder if BT has made it to Cashiers, NC for the retirement home?

 

[Robo5555]

Just moved from 100% I to C yesterday. Thinking the dollar might gain some strength. Playing the short term and looking into the rest of 2017. Most forecasters predicted between 2300 to 2400 on the S&P by the end of 2017. We are at 2412. Wonder if the political rally have gave us all our year earnings already and the rest of the year will be sideways to maybe a bit down action. Any thoughts?

 

[coolhand]

Just moved from 100% I to C yesterday. Thinking the dollar might gain some strength. Playing the short term and looking into the rest of 2017. Most forecasters predicted between 2300 to 2400 on the S&P by the end of 2017. We are at 2412. Wonder if the political rally have gave us all our year earnings already and the rest of the year will be sideways to maybe a bit down action. Any thoughts?

The outcome likely depends on how things play out on the political battlefield. But this is not the venue for me to get any more descriptive than that.

 

[coolhand]

The market spent the bulk of Wednesday's trading session in the red, but closed near the flat line. I said it would probably be choppy today and I think it largely was.



The S&P 500 retraced early losses to stay not far under its all-time high. Volume was elevated and momentum is weakening.



The DWCPF got hit much harder early in the trading session, falling well under its 50 dma before mounting a reversal that took it to a modestly positive close. That long tail on today's candlestick is highly suggestive of a bottom (higher low).



Banks remain weak and that's troubling. Price plunged today and tested that support area before recovering some its losses. The 50 dma is edging closer to that support area too, and it has served as resistance for some time now.

The beat continues. I remain bullish, but not complacent. We have gotten enough weakness this week to possibly fulfill the TSP Talk sentiment sell that was triggered for this week. The reversal today suggests the worst may be over for now and as far as the S&P 500 is concerned, the worst was hardly worth writing home about. Now, if the DWCPF can clear it's last peak at a key resistance area, we may get some upside traction.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said that a bottom was likely in given the big reversal in the major averages. I also said that if the DWCPF could clear its last peak at a key resistance area, the market might mount a decent rally.

Well, the 1st of the month has a tendency to be positive, but expectation and then news of a Paris Accord exit seems to have been the catalyst for the nice gains we got on Thursday. And it really was good news for us here in the US. The rally makes me wonder who really has control of the market right now. It may not be the CB. And that would be a really good thing if true.



The S&P 500 had a nice pop to the upside today and volume was decent. Momentum has turned back up too.



I have to say, it's about time the DWCPF gave us S funders a break. Price did a lot of catching up on Thursday, but it hasn't quite tested its all-time high yet. It's likely that it does, but I don't know if it will be the very short-term. But I do like what I see right now as it powered through that area of resistance with ease. There may be resistance just up ahead as well, but not for the S&P 500, so resistance on this chart does not mean as much to me. If anything, this index may continue to outperform a bit longer.

Breadth, which was already positive along with liquidity, took a decided jump to the upside today. That could indicate some upside follow through is likely. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish on Thursday, but not nearly enough to be of any concern. It's bullish. And so am I for now.

 

[coolhand]

I am on travel this week and don't always have time to post, so it can be hit and miss while on the road.



So far this week, the S&P 500 has pulled back somewhat modestly and it may be forming a bull flag, so I'd not get too bearish right now. There could be another shot even higher before a more meaningful pullback.



As expected, small caps are creating bigger pullbacks for the S fund, but it too may be forming a bull flag.

The options are bearish for Wednesday, but not overly so. Breadth and liquidity are weakening, but within bullish parameters. My intermediate term system remains bullish as well.

For now, the market looks like it could very well be setting up for a surprise move higher to trap the early bears. I am not excited about the downside prospects at all.

 

[coolhand]

I am flying early tomorrow morning, so I'm just going to post a bit of commentary. The market chopped around on Wednesday and that did nothing to change my previous outlook. I still think the bears need to be very careful depending on the time frame one is trading (if you're short). Breadth and liquidity remain positive. The options are neutral. Sentiment in general is supportive for the bulls.

I do not generally try to predict market action around political events, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Comey testimony may favor Trump and that may very well rally the market. I won't see the market action until I land in the late afternoon, which is after the markets close. It's going to be an interesting day.

 

[evilanne]

Have a safe trip!

 

[coolhand]

I just got online for the first time today and saw that the Comey testimony heavily favored Trump, as I suspected it would.



The S&P 500 went nowhere on the news, but...



the DWCPF rallied back to test resistance and held most of its gains.

The rally in small caps could mean there's more upside to come. The options are a on the bearish side for Friday, but NAAIM remains solidly bullish. My indicators in general remain bullish. I suspect we get more upside before any meaningful pullback. I am just not sure how much we can expect.

 

[coolhand]

Not a ton of change today. VIX closed higher. The options are largely neutral. Breadth remains bullish as does liquidity. I still don't see a lot of downside risk. Dips are still being bought.

 

[coolhand]

Tuesday saw a moderate rally, but Wednesday has a plethora of economic data being released. Is some degree of a reversal on tap?



The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high Tuesday. Not by much, but a fresh high none-the-less.



The DWCPF easily closed at a fresh all-time high as well. Momentum is rising nicely.

The EFA bounced, but no new high.

Breadth is lifting off and looks very bullish. Liquidity looks very good too. The options are neutral for Wednesday.

I see no reason not to be bullish, but the market could pull back on Wednesday. I think it's a buying opportunity if we get that weakness.

 

[nasa1974]

Might be a good day to make a move.