coolhand's Account Talk

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JamesE said:
Looks like a non event or even a sell the news now. CH, any prognostications on the S fund through the end of May? I'm starting to think about checking out...
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I have no solid reason to exit the S fund yet, though I am a bit frustrated with it myself. It has its weeks. I am looking for a reason to sell in order to reload, but they have made it impossible so far with the quick decline off the top. The fact that the S&P 500 has been relatively steady makes me think it's too early to bail. If we get another rally this month, I'll likely be a seller. But I need to see where my indicators are before I make any decisions.
 
With the exception of the DWCPF, most major indexes started the week flat.

SPX.jpg

Price on the S&P 500 is knocking on the door of resistance again. I sure looks like it's poised to break it too. Assuming that happens, it could trigger another broad-based rally to include the DWCPF.

DWCPF.jpg

The DWCPF dipped back down to test the 50% Fib level again and bounced fairly well, though it did close the day with a moderate loss. But the action itself suggests more upside sooner or later.

I remain bullish on equities.
 
Well, Tuesday brought us another flat day. It would be easy to feel at least somewhat bearish right now, but with the S&P still hovering near its all-time high, I'd not get too bearish.

SPX.jpg

I can hear Jim Morrison now, "Break on Through to the Other Side". That's what I hear when I look at this chart. This is not a bearish chart and I'm not buying the double top argument either. Not in this market.

DWCPF.jpg

In spite of the sideways action since falling from its recent top, the DWCPF is still above its 50 dma. How bearish can that be?

Let the indicators deteriorate. It gives the bears hope. And then the market dashes that hope. Over and over again. And I'm expecting it to happen once more. I just don't know exactly when.
 
So, we're minus 1 FBI Director today and the market shrugged :banana:. That was the big news item of the day, though it happened after the close on Tuesday.

S&P 500.png

Everything I have been saying the past few days still stands. The S&P 500 continues to eyeball that line of resistance.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF had a decent bounce and managed to get back to about where it was last Friday. It seems to be consolidating and I believe the main move will be to the upside at some point, though another test of the 50 dma is possible first. I'm not looking for it, but it's still possible.

Breadth and liquidity have been tracking sideways, but have remained bullish. The Bank Index continues to fight its 50 dma. The options smart money is leaning bullish for Thursday.

NAAIM Reports tomorrow. My bet is they remain bulled up. We'll see.
 
Well, no one got fired today (I'm actually disappointed :frown:) and the market took a dive. But as frustrating as it's been to ride this yo-yo, it's been so for both bulls and bears. But it is bullish action.

S&P 500.png

The S&P 500 has not given up much ground anytime the bears have tried to drive price lower. That line of resistance has remained in play even as many signals are beginning to flat line or move sideways.

DWCPF.png

I said yesterday that although I wasn't expecting it, the DWCPF may still retest its 50 dma. And it did and promptly bounced...hard. It's bullish.

NAAIM came in with virtually no bears in the survey. That's bullish in the longer-term context. This smart money is not seeing any serious bearish reasons to take short positions.

How can I not be bullish? Yes, I'm getting impatient, but I see no reason to abandon my long position.
 
The market rallied today, which I was looking for, but I though it would come after some follow through weakness from last week. But I'm not complaining.

S&P 500.png

The S&P 500 tagged a fresh high high, though I'd really like to see price clear that line of resistance in decisive fashion. I suspect I won't be waiting long.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF has more work to do, but this fund has a habit of outperforming, just as it often under-performs. If it can hit a higher high, I think we're there.

The EFA is back to its high after Monday's strength.

My intermediate term system improved on Monday, though it never shed its positive disposition. It just looks like it's ready to turn back up and get more positive. The options are neutral, but the dumb money is bullish, which is bearish. The problem I have with that is they have been positioned correctly quite often for some time now. And with NAAIM flat out bullish, I wouldn't argue with them, so I'm looking for more upside as the week plays out.
 
Up, down, up, down. Should be easy making money in this market when the direction seems to alternate each day or two. :rolleyes:

S&P 500.png

Price on the S&P 500 hit another high on Tuesday, but fell back to close with a very modest loss near that pesky resistance line.

DWCPF.png

Price recovered nicely on the DWCPF, but no higher high.

EFA.png

The EFA rallied smartly and posted yet another high.

Nothing has changed in my outlook. I hate when I can't change up the narrative from time to time, but the market isn't giving me all that much to talk about. Boring, isn't it? Never short a dull market. I remain long the S fund. :cool:
 
I feel like I've been ambushed after Wednesday's rout. It seems to be politically motivated (manipulated).

SPX.jpg

We now have some significant technical damage on the S&P 500 after just 1 day as price plunged on volume to close well under its 50 dma. But we've seen this before. Mid-March saw a similar drop, though not on a gap.

DWCPF.jpg

Similar story for DWCPF.

My intermediate term system is still positive, but it took a hit. Breadth flipped negative today and liquidity dove, but is still in expansion. There are no shortage of gloom and doomers out there, but I'm not ready to join them. I am willing to move from my bullish stance to a neutral sentiment though. But I'm still 100% S fund. The next day or two may be more telling. NAAIM reports tomorrow. Let's see how sentiment stacks up after this market slam.
 
mikekellyonline said:
Coolhand,

I'm still new around here and understand a few things, but I was trying to figure out your closer. 100% C - 10/3? What is the 10/3?
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Hello Mike. The 10/3 is almost certainly a date, but I don't what "closer" you are looking at. I don't know what that means and I can't find what you are looking at. Currently, I am 100% S fund, but I noticed my autotracker says 30% C and 70% S. Close, but not perfectly accurate. I try, but I'm pretty busy and travel, so sometimes I get distracted. I'm not exactly a spring chicken either. :smile:
 
The retrace continued on Monday as the major averages erased even more of its recent losses.

S&P 500.png

The S&P 500 is now just one moderate "up" day away from challenging its previous high set last week.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF pushed past and closed above its 50 dma. Upside momentum is only now starting to turn up. This move may have legs. At least I'm hoping it does. But my indicators do suggest as much and that smart money at NAAIM is darn long too.
 
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