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I think that the housing values fluctuation has largely become localized. For example, while I know that values in Florida are going down the home values here in Central Illinois are now on the rise since hitting their low sometime last summer. My 2001 153000 went to 201000 before dropping to 175 last summer. It is now back up to 185000 (as of February when I refied at 3.5% on another 15). To boot, a very similar house 3 blocks from me just sold for 201000.

My big question on this topic is what is going to happen to commercial real estate?
 
It is localized. But there are millions of homes affected similar to mine across the country. In aggregate, it really affects the housing market big time. There's just too many distressed homes in relation to those that are not in distress for it not to have a major impact on the overall economy. What's happening here in Orlando is at the extreme part of the spectrum. When the housing boom was in full gear the national average for "home speculators" was about 15%. In Orlando that number was 22%. So a lot of "investors" were buying homes they had no intention of living in. There are many homes in the Orlando area that have been built for more than 4 years, but never lived in. And reliable renters are hard to find, which contributes to the problem.

Every time I think our home prices here can't get much lower, they get much lower. :mad:


Mcqlives said:
I think that the housing values fluctuation has largely become localized. For example, while I know that values in Florida are going down the home values here in Central Illinois are now on the rise since hitting their low sometime last summer. My 2001 153000 went to 201000 before dropping to 175 last summer. It is now back up to 185000 (as of February when I refied at 3.5% on another 15). To boot, a very similar house 3 blocks from me just sold for 201000.

My big question on this topic is what is going to happen to commercial real estate?
Click to expand...
 
A home is like a stock portfolio - it will fluctuate in value. And should be treated as an investment over time which can take years in the real estate cycle.
 
For some, I suppose that could be true. But if one wants the flexibility to move to another home for whatever reason, this is a major issue. And I would seriously consider moving if I thought it wouldn't negatively affect my financial situation. I darn sure don't want to take a huge loss over it. But I also feel trapped. This is yet another unfortunate aspect of this housing bust.

I'll be talking to a lawyer sometime down the road to get a better handle on what my options may be.

Birchtree said:
A home is like a stock portfolio - it will fluctuate in value. And should be treated as an investment over time which can take years in the real estate cycle.
Click to expand...
 
The silver lining is that mom and pop won't be in the equity market until much later and at higher prices. I'm in the market for some property in N.C.
 
jp,

Primarily because of the elevation and cooler summers with mild winters. It's a half back location for me rather than going further north. My daughter thinks the location will be perfect for visitation. The step up is expensive but prices are coming down with more property available.
 
Euro Weakens Before Greece Auctions Bills Amid Debt Restructuring Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...greece-s-rating-cut-renews-debt-concerns.html

China Has Bigger-Than-Forecast Surplus on Record Exports

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...timated-11-4-billion-april-trade-surplus.html

Andrew Hall, the $100 Million Man, Loses Big on Oil and Silver

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/05/09/andrew-hall-the-100-million-man-bets-wrong-on-commodities/

Reports of Mortgage Fraud Reach Record Level

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...46.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird

Boehner's Debt-Limit Marker

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...02806557610.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

Pro: Early Stages Of EU Falling Apart?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42962500

Greece: What’s next? Restructuring. When? Sooner than you think.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greece-what’s-next-restructuring-when-sooner-you-think

And Here They Go For Round Two: CME Hikes Brent, Crude Margins By 25%, First Of Many Such Moves

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/an...-brent-crude-margins-25-first-many-such-moves

PIMCO raises bet against U.S. government debt

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/09/us-investing-pimco-fund-idUSTRE7486LU20110509

Greece angered by S&P rating cut

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/8503345/Greece-angered-by-SandP-rating-cut.html
 
coolhand said:
Home Values See Biggest Drop Since 2008

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42955097


My home's value has been dropping like a rock again since February. I'm also seeing another wave of homeowners in my neighborhood throwing in the towel and opting to do short sales or any other method to stop the insanity of paying a high mortgage on a quickly depreciating asset.

This is in Orlando, FL, which was one of the worst housing markets in the country. Right now my home has a value (according to zillow) of about $151K. In mid-2006 it was near $375K. After more than 7 years of mortgage payments I'm underwater to the tune of about $75K, and I bought this home about 4 years before the peak. In many cases our homes are being priced at early to mid 1990's levels. AND THEY'RE STILL DROPPING!
Click to expand...

We're down about 20% from valuation, and about 25k underwater.
Bought near the peak when financing was loose and fast, but got a very good deal on a 3BD 1B that we added a 1/2 bath to.

Your situation and market sound similar to Central Oregon, where "out of town" properties that used to be considered rural were dubbed "bedroom" communities and the prices jacked up like you were a premium buyer looking to "get out in the country".
This is an area sparsely populated anyway!
So much cash moved up from CA that it drove that area to be the hottest RE market in US, then with no supporting industry, the crash & burn came along and home values are now at or below 45% of 2007.

i.e. sales of 360K+ are now being offered @ 160K.

The smarter natives of the area were hammered with non-grandfathered prop tax and split, those who stayed along with the service industry folks trying to rent a place for 10/hr wages are now bitterly divided against the transplants, the latter of which have taken over city gov'ts- each pointing the finger at the other.
What a mess.
Big money, big problems.
Good news is, those who were of conservative nature and didn't run wild with the banks' mantra and marketing of "Your House = Your ATM" -for what you want NOW!, are basically back where things were before the madness, considering they are able to appeal their RE tax appraisals.

I still think a net zero value for us folks (the majority perhaps?) who aren't leveraged into the sky will be a good place to arrive.
 
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