coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

BTW, what's your position on tommorrow? Thx

My gut says we rally hard on bad economic numbers, but that's a big risk to take one day ahead of this market. We could get an ugly decline too, in order to scare the bulls one more time at least.

 

[nasa1974]

My gut says we rally hard on bad economic numbers, but that's a big risk to take one day ahead of this market. We could get an ugly decline too, in order to scare the bulls one more time at least.

Might not have to wait until tomorrow. Getting hammered now.

 

[coolhand]

The wife drives a 2003 Malibu and loves it. Great get-up-and-go. Have you looked at the new Ford Taurus. Great looking body. Not sure about the inside features.

I realize the Taurus is completely redesigned and I saw one recently at a car show locally, but I had 1990 Taurus wagon that left a bad taste in my mouth and that's the last American car I've bought. Never had a problem with any of the Toyotas or Hondas.

 

[coolhand]

I'll sure be glad when you guys turn bullish. Can't you smell the sweet smell of superlative bull manure that is wafting the board?

I think you're smelling that pile of manure that payloader just dumped on you.

VIX below 20...you had your chance.

(Now that I poked you in the eye the market will bounce back. You can thank me later. )

 

[Birchtree]

You know this is all psychological with panic in the air - the sign of the March bull market. We are now in correction territory on many sectors so the bottom may in fact be close. Don't be surprised if we do rally strongly off these lows - the money has been waiting for just this opportunity during the last ten months. Come get'em while the sale lasts.

 

[Bullitt]

Birch it's nice to see you appreciate a good panic on the buy side, that way we know you're buying into weakness, but to call this a buying opportunity? Maybe another couple points lower on the S&P and about 15 points higher on the VIX and then I'm with you. Still too much complacency out there IMO.

 

[Birchtree]

This could simply be a repeat of Jan-Feb'09 before this new cyclical bull market made a 65% run from the March 9th lows. I'd settle for that - another 65% run would be tremendous. The big risk now is being out rather than being in - who knows what is going to happen in the future once those nonfarm payrolls make their debut. Much better days ahead with perhaps fewer on board - classic bullish maneuver.

 

[McDuck]

This could simply be a repeat of Jan-Feb'09 before this new cyclical bull market made a 65% run from the March 9th lows. I'd settle for that - another 65% run would be tremendous. The big risk now is being out rather than being in - who knows what is going to happen in the future once those nonfarm payrolls make their debut. Much better days ahead with perhaps fewer on board - classic bullish maneuver.

Birch is wish I was your kid. Since you probably also believe in the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, and Tooth Fairy, your daughter must have really made out like a bandit.

 

[Bullitt]

What about a comparison to July-October 2007? That's my best case scenario.

 

[Birchtree]

McDuck,

Buzz is on pins and needles waiting to hear about a job offer in the Chicago area. I told her to relax and practice some of that discipline and patience she learned while in the military. She is currently at a local book store relaxing - father does know best at times.

 

[Bullitt]

Another warning sign.

Blue Mountain Capital Hedge fund related to the credit markets is unwinding, basically calling a top in this credit driven frenzy.

“We’ve captured most of the big opportunity,” BlueMountain co-founder Stephen Siderow, 42, said. “It isn’t going to happen again anytime soon and that’s why we urged our clients to move on.” They’re reinvesting in other credit funds of the New York-based manager that aren’t dependent on markets rising, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atzRTq71piYw

 

[coolhand]

Another warning sign.

Blue Mountain Capital Hedge fund related to the credit markets is unwinding, basically calling a top in this credit driven frenzy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atzRTq71piYw

Nice find. Thanks!

 

[Mcqlives]

Nice find. Thanks!

Double ouch!!!

 

[Silverbird]

Gah! Selling their risk again!

 

[coolhand]

I think I'm going to be tied up buying a car this evening, so my nightly blog post will be late tonight.

Today may be a game changer. Of course we'll have to let the market decide that as the days go by.

If you've been trading off the SS, you have to be happy right now. Caught the gains in Dec/Jan and avoided to big losses so far in Jan/Feb.

 

[coolhand]

They're all crooks I tell ya...

http://www.businessinsider.com/does...veal-secret-banker-plan-to-rig-markets-2010-2

 

[coolhand]

Based on early sentiment readings on Trader's Talk (they are pretty evenly split sentiment wise, which usually means weakness), and their poll is showing a fair number of longs in spite of the selling pressure we've seen. I'm not so sure we bounce today and futures are falling this morning. Of course we could see an intraday reversal, or the futures could change after the employment numbers are released. But which direction?

I'm also thinking that sooner or later Monday is going to turn black. Maybe we tag the 200 dma soon.

 

[coolhand]

This is probably the major source of our whipsaw problems.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/04/chicago-fed-weighs-making-high-speed-trading-safer/

 

[coolhand]

I'm holding some junk bonds (Vanguard High Yield Corporate), which have done very well since last year, but they seem to be topping. Looking to make a jump to something safer. Anyone have any thoughts on GOV? It's got a very attractive yield and appears to be a good bet based on its market strategy.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703357104575045550098993756.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 

[coolhand]

http://www.politico.com/arena/perm/Robert_B__Reich_7EDA2813-AA1E-4B57-98E7-112A1503AA14.html