coolhand's Account Talk

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Cool indeed. I'm going to steel that MACD setting and see how it plays with various charts, thanks.
 
fedgolfer said:
Wow, that chart gives the green light to buy the dips. What's the vertical dotted yellow line... where the golden crosses occured?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure exactly what those lines represent, but there are two sets of them. One (with the red vertical line) represents a bear transition. The other (with the green line) represents a bull transition. According to that chart, we just crossed over into a new bull market. It's compelling stuff really. Those signals don't happen often.
 
coolhand said:
I'm not sure exactly what those lines represent, but there are two sets of them. One (with the red vertical line) represents a bear transition. The other (with the green line) represents a bull transition. According to that chart, we just crossed over into a new bull market. It's compelling stuff really. Those signals don't happen often.
Click to expand...

from eyeballing it quickly and without much data to support it... looks like the golden cross happened in June about where a dotted yellow line occured... but then the bearish cross happened late Dec 07, about where another dotted yellow line occured.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47966957147

What really may be helpful to ALL Tsp'ers is if we knew how many false signals occured in the golden crosses throughout the complete history of the S&P, if at all, and if they did occur how long were those signals quickly reversed. If there aren't any fake signals, then its pretty obvious we should all have the cap preservation bearish tilt when is says BEAR and a bullish tilt it says BULL. My charts don't go back far enough in history... anyone?
 
wow, CH & FG - this is one of those `..and your assignment is: .........:D
Surely there is someone out there that has what you need ! -
..Birch, Tractor, Lobo .... who?
 
fedgolfer said:
What really may be helpful to ALL Tsp'ers is if we knew how many false signals occured in the golden crosses throughout the complete history of the S&P, if at all, and if they did occur how long were those signals quickly reversed.
Click to expand...

Are you talking about this chart?

View attachment 7229
 
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Thanks, JTH... you da man.

Not as obvious as I was hoping -- seems like a jumbled crossover in '94, but other than that pretty straight forward. Is it hard to do a golden cross over that same time frame using 50 and 200 SMAs, on the dailys... may look messy?

So far, what do you think?
 
fedgolfer said:
Thanks, JTH... you da man.

Not as obvious as I was hoping -- seems like a jumbled crossover in '94, but other than that pretty straight forward. Is it hard to do a golden cross over that same time frame using 50 and 200 SMAs, on the dailys... may look messy?

So far, what do you think?
Click to expand...

It's only messy due to the size limitations in the forum. But I can clean it up a bit using 6 charts. Sorry Cool hand, it would hi-jack up your thread so I'll post it here.

Golden Cross
 
JTH,

Great charts! (MA 50 crossing over MA 200). The indications that we are still on the profitable side of the Golden Cross is comforting. The understanding that, despite some profit taking or some market corrections, the upside continues to be the prevailing direction of the closely followed benchmark S&P 500, and threfore the markets, reduces the anxiety and strengthens the decision to remain significantly invested in stocks. Thank you.
 
Thanks again JTH. I just viewed those other charts on the other golden cross link you provided. It really adds to the confidence of playing the golden cross long term. I mentioned in the other thread that as long as one was steadfast in wearing the bull hat once the price went above the 50 day moving average, one wouldn't be so severly whipsawed during those false/or quickly reversed signals. I hope everyone finds this as enlightening as I did. Before it was a "general rule of thumb"... now I'll think of it as the golden rule in the long term chart. Almost everything else is noise.
 
fedgolfer said:
Thanks again JTH. I just viewed those other charts on the other golden cross link you provided. It really adds to the confidence of playing the golden cross long term. I mentioned in the other thread that as long as one was steadfast in wearing the bull hat once the price went above the 50 day moving average, one wouldn't be so severly whipsawed during those false/or quickly reversed signals. I hope everyone finds this as enlightening as I did. Before it was a "general rule of thumb"... now I'll think of it as the golden rule in the long term chart. Almost everything else is noise.
Click to expand...

FG,

Indeed, I agree with you. Of course, with TA we can increase our gains by profit taking on the potential tops and reinvesting at the perceived bottom of the cycles, channels, with the help of other program indicator signals.
 
airlift said:
FG,

Indeed, I agree with you. Of course, with TA we can increase our gains by profit taking on the potential tops and reinvesting at the perceived bottom of the cycles, channels, with the help of other program indicator signals.
Click to expand...

Agreed :)

Also, the July price action went below the 50 dma, and that sucked in enough shorts to get the next extended upswing/embedded slow stochastic in the overbought range for a healthy stretch. My hunch, is that the late Oct/Nov2 visit under the 50 dma did the same thing along with the current double top action... this gets the short term traders to get too short, and then the short squeeze pushes it above the intermediate pattern (this time the s&p double top).
 
Thanks guys. I just noticed that scan was both shorts & longs. Going long was substantially better statistically. I've got some more homework to do to perfect a 3ma system, and need to figure out a way to factor in a delay for the 1 day IFT
 
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