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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Wow, that chart gives the green light to buy the dips. What's the vertical dotted yellow line... where the golden crosses occured?
coolhand
Well-known member
I'm not sure exactly what those lines represent, but there are two sets of them. One (with the red vertical line) represents a bear transition. The other (with the green line) represents a bull transition. According to that chart, we just crossed over into a new bull market. It's compelling stuff really. Those signals don't happen often.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
from eyeballing it quickly and without much data to support it... looks like the golden cross happened in June about where a dotted yellow line occured... but then the bearish cross happened late Dec 07, about where another dotted yellow line occured.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47966957147
What really may be helpful to ALL Tsp'ers is if we knew how many false signals occured in the golden crosses throughout the complete history of the S&P, if at all, and if they did occur how long were those signals quickly reversed. If there aren't any fake signals, then its pretty obvious we should all have the cap preservation bearish tilt when is says BEAR and a bullish tilt it says BULL. My charts don't go back far enough in history... anyone?
JTH
Well-known member
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JTH
Well-known member
Last edited:
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Thanks, JTH... you da man.
Not as obvious as I was hoping -- seems like a jumbled crossover in '94, but other than that pretty straight forward. Is it hard to do a golden cross over that same time frame using 50 and 200 SMAs, on the dailys... may look messy?
So far, what do you think?
Not as obvious as I was hoping -- seems like a jumbled crossover in '94, but other than that pretty straight forward. Is it hard to do a golden cross over that same time frame using 50 and 200 SMAs, on the dailys... may look messy?
So far, what do you think?
JTH
Well-known member
It's only messy due to the size limitations in the forum. But I can clean it up a bit using 6 charts. Sorry Cool hand, it would hi-jack up your thread so I'll post it here.
Golden Cross
JTH
Well-known member
Last edited:
JTH
Well-known member
JTH
Well-known member
Here are the results of the Golden Cross backtested from 1961 to today.
I really do need to get outside more...
View attachment 7250
I really do need to get outside more...
View attachment 7250
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JTH,
Great charts! (MA 50 crossing over MA 200). The indications that we are still on the profitable side of the Golden Cross is comforting. The understanding that, despite some profit taking or some market corrections, the upside continues to be the prevailing direction of the closely followed benchmark S&P 500, and threfore the markets, reduces the anxiety and strengthens the decision to remain significantly invested in stocks. Thank you.
Great charts! (MA 50 crossing over MA 200). The indications that we are still on the profitable side of the Golden Cross is comforting. The understanding that, despite some profit taking or some market corrections, the upside continues to be the prevailing direction of the closely followed benchmark S&P 500, and threfore the markets, reduces the anxiety and strengthens the decision to remain significantly invested in stocks. Thank you.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Thanks again JTH. I just viewed those other charts on the other golden cross link you provided. It really adds to the confidence of playing the golden cross long term. I mentioned in the other thread that as long as one was steadfast in wearing the bull hat once the price went above the 50 day moving average, one wouldn't be so severly whipsawed during those false/or quickly reversed signals. I hope everyone finds this as enlightening as I did. Before it was a "general rule of thumb"... now I'll think of it as the golden rule in the long term chart. Almost everything else is noise.
FG,
Indeed, I agree with you. Of course, with TA we can increase our gains by profit taking on the potential tops and reinvesting at the perceived bottom of the cycles, channels, with the help of other program indicator signals.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Agreed
Also, the July price action went below the 50 dma, and that sucked in enough shorts to get the next extended upswing/embedded slow stochastic in the overbought range for a healthy stretch. My hunch, is that the late Oct/Nov2 visit under the 50 dma did the same thing along with the current double top action... this gets the short term traders to get too short, and then the short squeeze pushes it above the intermediate pattern (this time the s&p double top).
