coolhand's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

A drop below the 20 level (15 used to be the normal) would definitely send a strong message that normalacy has returned as participants will be feeling confident about the future. It tends to move inversely with the markets and I'm going to use it as a contrarian indicator.

 

[FAB1]

A drop below the 20 level (15 used to be the normal) would definitely send a strong message that normalacy has returned as participants will be feeling confident about the future. It tends to move inversely with the markets and I'm going to use it as a contrarian indicator.

Break that down a little someone, please. Not hip w/ the lingo yet!

 

[FAB1]

Guys. All I know is if I pull out now, if the market goes up anytime before end of month....Im out and miss making money until the next month.

Im sticking on 3rd, waiting to steal home.

 

[Show-me]

Guys. All I know is if I pull out now, if the market goes up anytime before end of month....Im out and miss making money until the next month.

Im sticking on 3rd, waiting to steal home.

Don't look at it like that, it will get you burned. It burned me bad.

 

[Birchtree]

If the VIX breaks and sustains beneath support, then I have to think it will continue lower - and that it will coincide with more additional strength in the equity market. Low levels mean the investor is complacent and comfortable with the current environment. When no one is nervous that's exactly the time to get nervous. More information can be found here: http://www.vixandmore.blogspot.com/

 

[FAB1]

If the VIX breaks and sustains beneath support, then I have to think it will continue lower - and that it will coincide with more additional strength in the equity market. Low levels mean the investor is complacent and comfortable with the current environment. When no one is nervous that's exactly the time to get nervous. More information can be found here: http://www.vixandmore.blogspot.com/

I see. thanks!

Well it seems like some on this MB are getting nervous so that must be a good sign not to be nervous, right? Tricky business.

 

[Steadygain]

I'm staying right where I am at 65C/20S/15I until the VIX drops further.

Birch -- the 4 posts prior to the one above are not by begginers...

....these guys are 'Pros' and when all 4 say G Fund....

....you're taking a huge chance making this kind of statement

....aren't you afraid you'll 'eat crow' ?? ...do you have No fear ?

 

[Birchtree]

As the saying goes - when the VIX is high it's time to buy. When the damn thing was at the 89 level I was dumping multi-hundreds of thousands of dollars down the dark well, making well over 400 individual stock purchases. And fortunately for me that turned out to be the correct strategy. Now that we are approaching the 20 level I plan to pull back some on my tugboat account (TSP). But the oceanic account (big money) will stay fully invested because I depend on dividend reinvestments to do some of the heavy lifting. I should also tell you that when the VIX was at the 89 level I was taking a $1M haircut - but I absolutely refused to sell my assets so I didn't lock any losses - just felt the sting of a firm devaluation and then I stepped forward and absorbed even more pain. No pain no gain.

 

[Birchtree]

Steady,

When have the "pros" been correct? Big money does not mean smart money. This bull arena is wide open on throttle - and we all take are chances. I see you are still in.

 

[dannyboy]

Guys. All I know is if I pull out now, if the market goes up anytime before end of month....Im out and miss making money until the next month.

Im sticking on 3rd, waiting to steal home.

**************************************
In a way, I wish I had bailed too. I looked at the calender date and it says 11-18, without thinking, so I just said hold tight DannyBoy, you still got half a crazy month to go? :embarrest: I forgot to check the holidays + vacation, this month! Actually there's only about 6 working days left this Month for me. So, I'm stuck and I guess I'll just lower my head and charge, Birch style, and I'll crash into the wall while, " waiting to steal home. [/QUOTE] " I've done that before and " What doesn't kill you will make you stronger?" (this time richer?). :nuts:
DB

 

[Birchtree]

FAB1,

The VIX came down nicely today to 21.95 down .46 for the momeny. The VIX is signaling a likely pull higher in coming days by equities. Tomorrow could be a good day - there is no way I'd get out of this market at this time.

 

[FAB1]

FAB1,

The VIX came down nicely today to 21.95 down .46 for the momeny. The VIX is signaling a likely pull higher in coming days by equities. Tomorrow could be a good day - there is no way I'd get out of this market at this time.

Wow, thats getting might close the "20" mark...Well I noticed a little ralley late this afternoon - we didn't lose much at all today. Let the good time roll tomorrow!

 

[coolhand]

Well I noticed a little ralley late this afternoon - we didn't lose much at all today.

That's often a hook to get the bulls to bite. We had a bullish close yesterday that resulted in selling most of today. I'm not saying we can't rally from here, we certainly could. But one has to be comfortable doing it with our limited trading structure. Remember, BT is a very knowledgeable guy, but he's looking very long term. And that's okay. Many of us are looking at different timeframes, which is why it can be confusing when folks are moving in different directions. I'm just looking at the next two weeks. Others are looking years ahead. And then you have everything in between.

Each person on this board has to decide what their timeframe is and execute moves accordingly.

 

[Frixxxx]

Each person on this board has to decide what their timeframe is and execute moves accordingly.

Amen, used both IFT's and can only jump back on the lily pad. I'm watching consumerism numbers and if I even think Black Friday is not going to be well, I'm out!

 

[350zCommTech]

Amen, used both IFT's and can only jump back on the lily pad. I'm watching consumerism numbers and if I even think Black Friday is not going to be well, I'm out!

With this economy, one would think that sales might be lackluster but when you're not making mortgage payments, you should have some extra cash in your pockets.

 

[coolhand]

Nice (and sobering) analysis of the unemployment picturel.

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/...estor&ArticleId=NS20091116091703TheBigPicture

 

[Warrenlm]

.... Remember, BT is a very knowledgeable guy, but he's looking very long term. And that's okay. Many of us are looking at different timeframes, ....

Indeed, Birchtree said once that he was investing for his grandchildren. While admirable, that timeframe exceeds those timeframes of many TSP members and creates a completely different view.

 

[CountryBoy]

Nice (and sobering) analysis of the unemployment picturel.

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/...estor&ArticleId=NS20091116091703TheBigPicture

Yeah a similiar article, with the U-6 unemployment figures, makes me leery, but still buy stock on our 2 ROTH's. I believe that when the Feds stop pumping money into the economy and keeping it artifiicially pumped up, we're going to see how bad we are.

I read a bad foreclosure report, yesterday, of the number left to come and it was like 4x's more than what we've seen so far. Sorry I didn't link, but it was Bloomberg or CNBC and figgered others had seen it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34040009 And many jobs aren't coming back and how they are all related to housing.

 

[coolhand]

Yeah a similiar article, with the U-6 unemployment figures, makes me leery, but still buy stock on our 2 ROTH's. I believe that when the Feds stop pumping money into the economy and keeping it artifiicially pumped up, we're going to see how bad we are.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34040009 And many jobs aren't coming back and how they are all related to housing.

While I was in San Diego, the Ramada I stayed at said vacancy rates were up. I've stayed there numerous times in previous years and it was obvious they were hurting. The restaurant and bar were fairly quiet and the number of empty parking spaces were very telling.

I had no trouble getting through the airport either. A year or two ago that by itself could be a trial. Not this time.

 

[coolhand]

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20091120084953PageOne

Strikingly, there appears to be a different train of thought in the Treasury market where the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill hit 0.005% yesterday. Essentially, investors at that yield are not concerned with a return on their money so much as they are concerned with the return of their money.

To say the least, the interest in parking money at the front end of the Treasury curve for almost nothing in return is peculiar in the face of continued strength in the stock market (notwithstanding yesterday's trade). It is a tacit statement that the road ahead may not be as smooth as equity investors would like to believe.