coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Coolhand,

Looks like the SS's all went back to a buy today except $BPCOMPQ which is just a hair away from a buy. What are your thoughts? Low volume rally on Wednesday and Friday?

I've posted a blog about it, but the short answer is that I don't trust today's strength. Not for long anyway. This is a holiday shortened week and I think post holiday trading (Friday and especially Monday) may see some significant action. But it's just a hunch. We need to see how each day plays out.

 

[WorkFE]

But it's just a hunch. We need to see how each day plays out.

Personally I believe today was rebound from last week. We could possibly see flat days (up or down) for the next few days including friday. All this will be a set up for monday. Be in and you could lose your shorts, be out and you could miss a huge day. Have not made up my mind yet. If we trend up over the next few days the VIX will be under 21 for sure which smells like profit taking.
I for sure will be watching what everyone else is doing.

 

[coolhand]

I for sure will be watching what everyone else is doing.

Do the Top 25% charts help you?

 

[coolhand]

Great article on Windows 7!

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...tor&ArticleId=NS20091124080801AheadOfTheCurve

 

[WorkFE]

Do the Top 25% charts help you?

Absolutely. Although I have met my objective for 2009 I aspire to be part of that group. They are doing something right.

 

[coolhand]

Absolutely. Although I have met my objective for 2009 I aspire to be part of that group. They are doing something right.

I'll be interesting to see how the names within that group change next year once we start at zero again. I'm not sure how much consistency we'll see.

But it's not the names that matter. It's what market position one needs to be successful as the market changes character.

 

[WorkFE]

It would not surprise me to see some of those with nice recoveries move to a some what more conservative approach

 

[Boghie]

It would not surprise me to see some of those with nice recoveries move to a some what more conservative approach

I would hope not...
Folks should be gettin' while the gettin' is good.

I think the market will be flat-lined from a certain point (probably not set yet) onward. But, it is probably smart to let the market reach its flat-line - and, therefore, not guess when it is to happen. It will tell you - yuk, yuk

Grab all you can

 

[WorkFE]

I would hope not...

Not everybody but some of the top returns will want to ensure they don't make the same mistake twice. Of course time left in the market will have more to say about it than anything else. Atleast for me anyway.

 

[Boghie]

Not everybody but some of the top returns will want to ensure they don't make the same mistake twice. Of course time left in the market will have more to say about it than anything else. Atleast for me anyway.

I just hope for an investment environment where trading my TSP account is not necessary. Like the bygone era of 1995 - 2005 or so. Probably like the 80s as well. When the market didn't dump 8% in a day...

I kinda like the slow and steady...

Don't like booms and busts...

 

[CountryBoy]

Well, I know I'll have to step it up next year, since the previous 2 years or so were so good to me that I'm still ahead for where I wanted to be for 2009, but next year, I'll need to sack up, so I'm hoping the SS's are in top form.

But then I'll settle for being lucky also. :laugh:

CB

 

[JTH]

Coolhand, any idea how often the timing point projector is updated?

 

[Tubman83]

I want to know if next year will be as volatile as this year was.
I'd like very much to be prepared to take advantage of these ups and downs.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand, any idea how often the timing point projector is updated?

Mark hasn't updated it in awhile. I suspect he's decided the market is no longer following the projection well enough to use it. But I really don't know. I do know that the TPP seemed to indicate a top next week. I'd be on my toes next month in any event just in case it nails the top. It doesn't have to be next week to be accurate either. Hand gernades are good enough.

 

[coolhand]

I want to know if next year will be as volatile as this year was.
I'd like very much to be prepared to take advantage of these ups and downs.

The ups and downs would be fine if they'd get spread out a little more. The action is actually too fast unless we get lucky enough to front run the signals accurately. And even then we only get one, or at most two chances a month to cash in. But keep in mind a change in market character would demand a change of strategy too, and sooner or later we'll get that change.

 

[KevinD]

Only 3 more trading days to 2 new IFTs.

 

[coolhand]

Only 3 more trading days to 2 new IFTs.

So far my trade this month has worked out well. My only concern was being forced to sit on my hands for a little over two weeks. But with only 3 trading days left (two of which will be low volume) it's beginning to appear that I'm not missing anything.

 

[airlift]

So far my trade this month has worked out well. My only concern was being forced to sit on my hands for a little over two weeks. But with only 3 trading days left (two of which will be low volume) it's beginning to appear that I'm not missing anything.

CH,

Although we are extremely limited by the TSP board allowing only two IFTs, you have done excellent work in timing the market and interpreting the signals profitably to our benefit. As noted by JTH, other systems are independently confirming the signals. Uptrend's system went to G a couple of days ago. I believe this also is good news.

I hope that you can remain inspired, sharp, and focused. Lot's of people are on the road this weekend. Best wishes and Happy Thanksgiving to you and all! Thank you.

 

[KevinD]

CH,

Best wishes and Happy Thanksgiving to you and all! Thank you.

+1

 

[coolhand]

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/11/25/ritholtz-buy-and-hold-is-a-disaster/