clester's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

2500 posts. Nice job.

Yesterday would have been a good day to be in the "I" fund.

 

[clester]

2500 posts. Nice job.

Yesterday would have been a good day to be in the "I" fund.

I fund was WAY oversold. I have it as a buy but only 50% since its in a bear market. S fund should get up to its 50DMA for a test. The C fund needs to break above its 200DMA. That will happen first so lets hope for a bust though! S fund should outperform on this rally since it was down much more.

Still looking for a good 4th quarter!

 

[clester]

Man. I must have not followed through on my transfer to S fund last week! Just checked my TSP and I'm still in C fund! That cost me about 1% or so I think.

 

[nnuut]

Bummer! I always save a copy of my IFTs.

 

[Whipsaw]

I'm still in C... Was going to jump over to S but it is Monday... Mondays are not always conducive to a move.

 

[clester]

C and S funds should head to the 50DMA now since the C fund gapped over its 200DMA. S fund is slightly outperforming the C fund again today.

 

[clester]

C and S funds should head to the 50DMA now since the C fund gapped over its 200DMA. S fund is slightly outperforming the C fund again today.

That means my error of not making the trade to S fund in my actual TSP has cost me 2% so far

I'm not sure if its worthwhile to make the trade now though.

 

[jkenjohnson]

That means my error of not making the trade to S fund in my actual TSP has cost me 2% so far

I'm not sure if its worthwhile to make the trade now though.

i went 100% s yesterday, and forgot to post on the autotracker

 

[clester]

i went 100% s yesterday, and forgot to post on the autotracker

Good for you.

I think we will go up to test the 50 Dma on s&p and pause. But we should bust through and head to new highs imo.

 

[clester]

Good for you.

I think we will go up to test the 50 Dma on s&p and pause. But we should bust through and head to new highs imo.

Well the October "V" bottom happened like it does most of the time and we are now back to the 50DMA on the C fund. If we can bust through then we can head to the highs for a test. I would like to see a jump over on Monday. If we fail Monday then we could may have to hang out below it for a few days. Last time we failed we had a big drop!

I am still thinking that will happen and the 4th quarter will be good.

 

[clester]

Well the October "V" bottom happened like it does most of the time and we are now back to the 50DMA on the C fund. If we can bust through then we can head to the highs for a test. I would like to see a jump over on Monday. If we fail Monday then we could may have to hang out below it for a few days. Last time we failed we had a big drop!

I am still thinking that will happen and the 4th quarter will be good.

We are now back up and over the 50dma! That's a great sign and should get us climbing back up to new highs. Its a strong buy form my system in C fund. S and I funds are still in bear markets (50 dma below 200dma) but the S&P should lead them out of it.

 

[clester]

We tested the 50 dma and bounce yesterday and looks like another test this morning is coming. If we can hold it then off we go to new highs imo.

I'm still looking for a good 4th quarter and expect to hold stocks for a while. I think the bull market will last until the fed starts raising rates next summer.

 

[clester]

We tested the 50 dma and bounce yesterday and looks like another test this morning is coming. If we can hold it then off we go to new highs imo.

I'm still looking for a good 4th quarter and expect to hold stocks for a while. I think the bull market will last until the fed starts raising rates next summer.

Getting close to new high on S&P! We should keep going past it. I'm now watching the RSI for overbought reading but we are still well below 70

 

[bmneveu]

Getting close to new high on S&P! We should keep going past it. I'm now watching the RSI for overbought reading but we are still well below 70

What period do you use for RSI? I use 10 on a daily chart and see 88.5 for SPY.

 

[jkenjohnson]

What period do you use for RSI? I use 10 on a daily chart and see 88.5 for SPY.

Don't want to answer for Craig but I'm pretty sure he uses the 50sma. If you use a 50 day period for RSI it is about 55.5. He and I have talked about this before.

 

[jpcavin]

I believe he uses the typical 14-period RSI which currently puts it at 64.55 as I type

 

[clester]

You are correct. I go for the simplest version. Nothing special about why I use the sma and 14 period rsi. It's just the easiest. I think you just need to be consistent. So RSI is about 65. Got another 2 percent or so to get to 70.

 

[clester]

We are looking good for the C fund to continue up another 1-2% IMO based on the RSI being below 70 at about 65-66. So, its still a strong buy.I fund failed at its 50 DMA and is in bear market. That's a sell. S fund has a buy because its above the 50 and 200 DMA's.

Just watching the RSI at this point!

 

[clester]

We are looking good for the C fund to continue up another 1-2% IMO based on the RSI being below 70 at about 65-66. So, its still a strong buy.I fund failed at its 50 DMA and is in bear market. That's a sell. S fund has a buy because its above the 50 and 200 DMA's.

Just watching the RSI at this point!

RSI over 67...getting close to a 50% sell signal if we get to 70. Maybe next week?

 

[InsaneZane1]

I'm thinking the same thing. As I just noted in my account thread, Micros are continuing to lag on a daily basis now, and S Fund's strength is alternating between value vs growth. With Small Caps still showing more strength than Large Caps, I agree that there appears to be a bit more room for gains - but not a lot - before I would expect a bear raid.