clester's Account Talk

[clester]

My final in atomic and nuclear physics is next week. Then, I can look forward to quantum mechanics in January. It's been an interesting semester. We talked a bit about quantum mechanics this semester with the introduction of the schrodinger wave equation and the Heisenberg uncertainty principle.

 

[Cactus]

Good think Dec 7 is on a Sunday this year. I always hated taking a final on the 7th. It was a psychological thing. It always felt like a good day to bomb a test.

 

[clester]

I fund looks weak and in a bear market. S fund at a triple top and may need to build an inverted head and shoulders before moving higher. C fund has a rounded top and is extended above the 50 dma and could use a pull back to test the 50 dma. All in all, markets looking tired but C fund is still in a strong bull market so I will stay in at least 50% (My system stays in at least 50% in a bull market), I'll be looking for a re entry to 100% if we can get a test of the 50 dma.

 

[clester]

I fund looks weak and in a bear market. S fund at a triple top and may need to build an inverted head and shoulders before moving higher. C fund has a rounded top and is extended above the 50 dma and could use a pull back to test the 50 dma. All in all, markets looking tired but C fund is still in a strong bull market so I will stay in at least 50% (My system stays in at least 50% in a bull market), I'll be looking for a re entry to 100% if we can get a test of the 50 dma.

Things are starting to get interesting with the futures down. Looking for a good re entry point. Sell off will be muted imo. We may get all the way to the 50dma but I doubt it. Support at 2040, 2020 and the big one about 2000 (50 dma)

 

[clester]

Things are starting to get interesting with the futures down. Looking for a good re entry point. Sell off will be muted imo. We may get all the way to the 50dma but I doubt it. Support at 2040, 2020 and the big one about 2000 (50 dma)

Successful test of the 2040 level on S&P and RSI has come off a bit. Maybe it's enough. A new high would probably give me a buy signal. The s fund still needs to breakout to new highs to confirm a new uptrend. I fund is still a sell.

 

[clester]

Successful test of the 2040 level on S&P and RSI has come off a bit. Maybe it's enough. A new high would probably give me a buy signal. The s fund still needs to breakout to new highs to confirm a new uptrend. I fund is still a sell.

Ok. So, the sell off continues. Love to see that 50dma test! A 1.5% sell off is a sell in a bear market but we are in a bull!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Ok. So, the sell off continues. Love to see that 50dma test! A 1.5% sell off is a sell in a bear market but we are in a bull!

Yeah, I think we're just getting started. The 50 day is what I'll be looking for.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Craig,

If the S fund moves back above the 50dma this morning is that a buy signal for your system, or will you wait for a higher close tomorrow prior to going 100%?

 

[clester]

Craig,

If the S fund moves back above the 50dma this morning is that a buy signal for your system, or will you wait for a higher close tomorrow prior to going 100%?

Your looking at the ema and I'm looking at sma but yes, a bounce at or around the 50 dma is a buy signal. A big down day in a bull market tends to be a buy signal too. A bottom is hard to call and prices usually drop below the 50dma before bouncing. So, I'm not sure today is the day to buy but I think we're getting close. Let's see what happens today.

 

[clester]

Your looking at the ema and I'm looking at sma but yes, a bounce at or around the 50 dma is a buy signal. A big down day in a bull market tends to be a buy signal too. A bottom is hard to call and prices usually drop below the 50dma before bouncing. So, I'm not sure today is the day to buy but I think we're getting close. Let's see what happens today.

I would like to see the S fund get to an all time high before jumping in. C fund is still just basing to slightly downtrending. I'm not in a hurry to jump in 100%.

 

[clester]

I would like to see the S fund get to an all time high before jumping in. C fund is still just basing to slightly downtrending. I'm not in a hurry to jump in 100%.

The recent action is why I keep at least 50% in stocks during bull markets. The bias is up and I learned not to get on the wrong side and then try to pick a re entry point. Plus I can claim victory either way the market goes. An emotional victory helps me stay focused and not make rash decisions. I'm now looking for the 50 dma test or a breakout to new highs to get in 100%

 

[clester]

Getting to a very interesting place. I would love to see a test of the 50dma and really a dip below and then a bounce would be perfect. Might get that buy signal next week.

 

[clester]

Getting to a very interesting place. I would love to see a test of the 50dma and really a dip below and then a bounce would be perfect. Might get that buy signal next week.

Next week is really looking interesting now. Good buying opportunity coming!

 

[JamesE]

Well, either this thing is on rails and going straight to he!! or.....

I just made some serious coin by jumping back in today. I'm not about to try and time perfect tops or bottoms, but I will take a quick 3% for a few days wait.

 

[clester]

Next week is really looking interesting now. Good buying opportunity coming!

I'm not sure today is the buying opportunity but we're coming up on the last 2 weeks of the year and I expect a rally into the new year. It wold have been better to start off down today and then rally. I'll be watching this morning to see if I will make a move to 100%.

 

[clester]

I'm not sure today is the buying opportunity but we're coming up on the last 2 weeks of the year and I expect a rally into the new year. It wold have been better to start off down today and then rally. I'll be watching this morning to see if I will make a move to 100%.

I fund's RSI dropped below 30 which is a buy in a bull market but its in a bear market so I would need to see a 20 ish reading. I would like to see the C and S funds dip below th 50 dma and then bounce. I am looking to buy but I want to be patient. Let's see how things shape up by noon today. Maybe tomorrow will be the day. Not expecting to buy today.

 

[clester]

I fund's RSI dropped below 30 which is a buy in a bull market but its in a bear market so I would need to see a 20 ish reading. I would like to see the C and S funds dip below th 50 dma and then bounce. I am looking to buy but I want to be patient. Let's see how things shape up by noon today. Maybe tomorrow will be the day. Not expecting to buy today.

Got the reversal and a dip below the 50dma on C and S funds. I will now look for a bounce to signal a buy

 

[clester]

Got the reversal and a dip below the 50dma on C and S funds. I will now look for a bounce to signal a buy

So far, today feels like yesterday. Start off up and fade through day. Hope that doesn't happen. If we're still up by noon I may go ahead with a buy. Ideally, I would wait for a close up a day or two but most of my criteria have been met

 

[clester]

So far, today feels like yesterday. Start off up and fade through day. Hope that doesn't happen. If we're still up by noon I may go ahead with a buy. Ideally, I would wait for a close up a day or two but most of my criteria have been met

Ideally the RSI on S&P would hit 30 and bounce a couple days just below the 50 or 200 dma for a strong buy signal. I fund has RSI at 24 and near the October low so it may be a short term buy but no more than 50% would go there because it's in a bear market. S fund appears to be making an inverted head and shoulders formation and a buy is generated on a break out above right shoulder.

So, all in all, the C fund still looks best for now. I'm itching to buy so let's see how this morning plays out.

 

[weatherweenie]

So far, today feels like yesterday. Start off up and fade through day. Hope that doesn't happen. If we're still up by noon I may go ahead with a buy. Ideally, I would wait for a close up a day or two but most of my criteria have been met

And then the Russians hit with a huge rate hike, pulling the rug out from under the futures market. Here's hoping we get a capitulation sell off in the morning, with some long awaited dip buying.