clester's Account Talk

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clester said:
Looks like I won't make a move again today. Boy, it's hard to stay patient. I fund is close to breaking out of a cup and handle formation, so I'll wait and see what happens there. S fund has had its RSI over 70 for almost every day this year. That is very unusual. It has to fall soon IMO. Again, should have stuck to my system and stayed in 50%. I won't compound that by getting in near the top. I can feel good about this year being up 5%. That was my yearly goal when I retired which makes me even more cautious and why I don't feel left behind. Psychology is very important in investing.
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Currency will hurt I fund again. Glad I didn't buy it yesterday. The pound is getting whacked as the currency wars continue. The uk has the biggest chunck of I fund. The currency devaluation helps the stock market of effected area but is offset by the currency for US investors.
 
clester said:
Currency will hurt I fund again. Glad I didn't buy it yesterday. The pound is getting whacked as the currency wars continue. The uk has the biggest chunck of I fund. The currency devaluation helps the stock market of effected area but is offset by the currency for US investors.
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Plus, C and S funds are back in overbought areas as indicated by RSI. We need about a 5% pullback. That would be healthy and set up another sustainable move up. Parabolic moves never end well. But it's a good ride while it lasts.
 
clester said:
Plus, C and S funds are back in overbought areas as indicated by RSI. We need about a 5% pullback. That would be healthy and set up another sustainable move up. Parabolic moves never end well. But it's a good ride while it lasts.
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Gotta feeling we may finally be ready for the pull back. Most folks seem to think we won't get a pullback. The market wants to frustrate the most people. Cramer (who I use for contrarian purposes) said you gotta be in. Sellers have been getting hurt so just jump on in and ride it. Buy, buy, buy. (I'm paraphrasing).

He did this near the top of Apple's run. Etc. Plus we just need it for a healthy market.
 
clester said:
Gotta feeling we may finally be ready for the pull back. Most folks seem to think we won't get a pullback. The market wants to frustrate the most people. Cramer (who I use for contrarian purposes) said you gotta be in. Sellers have been getting hurt so just jump on in and ride it. Buy, buy, buy. (I'm paraphrasing).

He did this near the top of Apple's run. Etc. Plus we just need it for a healthy market.
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I wouldn't count on it, they don't care about healthy. Have you noticed the USD has been going up as the markets are, that is a fundamental shift in what has been happening for years.

Low volume is also a huge problem. Until some volume comes back, there won't be any dips/drops unless there is some huge event to cause major panic (and no, the sequester won't do it since the republicans will cave and taxes will go up and sequester will not happen).

Only time will tell :)
 
clester said:
Currency will hurt I fund again. Glad I didn't buy it yesterday. The pound is getting whacked as the currency wars continue. The uk has the biggest chunck of I fund. The currency devaluation helps the stock market of effected area but is offset by the currency for US investors.
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Gained 1.3% yesterday in the I fund. Waiting on a 2% gain and them I'm out.
 
It's going to be the 1990s all over again with a stronger dollar and a strengthening bull market - not a good reason though to dump the I fund.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
I wouldn't count on it, they don't care about healthy. Have you noticed the USD has been going up as the markets are, that is a fundamental shift in what has been happening for years.

Low volume is also a huge problem. Until some volume comes back, there won't be any dips/drops unless there is some huge event to cause major panic (and no, the sequester won't do it since the republicans will cave and taxes will go up and sequester will not happen).

Only time will tell :)
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I think you could be surprised. If the trend breaks folks will start selling which causes more selling. It's never a one way market.
 
Birchtree said:
It's going to be the 1990s all over again with a stronger dollar and a strengthening bull market - not a good reason though to dump the I fund.
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My goal is 2% per month. If I get it, I flee to safety and wait. That's just the way I play. Could I do better, maybe - but to me the I fund is a little too volatile.
 
clester said:
I think you could be surprised. If the trend breaks folks will start selling which causes more selling. It's never a one way market.
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If by folks you mean institutional investors, maybe. The retail investor will be caught without a stop.

The institutions are not ready yet.

clester said:
Btw, we're not that close to the trend breaking yet.
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Clarification, "they" are not ready yet.
 
bmneveu said:
I think tomorrow will be telling. Will we continue to buy the dip or finally give in to the selling pressure?

Edit: Personally, I'm sticking to G until I get a better price.
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This is what I was talking about. Once the dam breaks, lots of folks will rush to lock in profits. I'd say it will continue but with a dip buying spat here and there. Maybe tomorrow. We have gotten a big chunck today but I expect some more. Time to start looking for a good buying opportunity. I would love to see us hit the 50 dma.
 
bmneveu said:
My sell order of 900 shares of TZA filled in about half a second so i think there is definitely some interest there.
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Interest yes, but by whom... this happened last year too, went right back up and kept climbing.

So, since many of the major indices are at or right above their 20 day MA, I could see a quick dip to the 20, probably beyond to grab a few more bears and then rip up and up...

Hmmm...
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Interest yes, but by whom... this happened last year too, went right back up and kept climbing.

So, since many of the major indices are at or right above their 20 day MA, I could see a quick dip to the 20, probably beyond to grab a few more bears and then rip up and up...

Hmmm...
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This is a very popular view.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Gained 1.3% yesterday in the I fund. Waiting on a 2% gain and them I'm out.
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Sorry to say, I'm afraid the I fund will get hammered today. The currencies are making it worse too. Today it's the euro.

What a difference a day makes. Now, I hear a lot of "take some chips off". Even a big player like Dennis Gartman that's is on cnbc a lot. The snowball effect (selling causing more selling) could get us a decent correction here on profit taking. I won't be to quick to jump in the market but now I am ready when we stabilize. Maybe next week. It would be nice to be in for the 1st of March but I won't force it.
 
clester said:
Sorry to say, I'm afraid the I fund will get hammered today. The currencies are making it worse too. Today it's the euro.

What a difference a day makes. Now, I hear a lot of "take some chips off". Even a big player like Dennis Gartman that's is on cnbc a lot. The snowball effect (selling causing more selling) could get us a decent correction here on profit taking. I won't be to quick to jump in the market but now I am ready when we stabilize. Maybe next week. It would be nice to be in for the 1st of March but I won't force it.
Click to expand...

Yeppers, so much for my plan. If I break even I will probably jump to the S if the pullback continues.
 
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