clester's Account Talk

[clester]

Starting in February volatility has picked up. Swings up and down over 1%. What does that mean? I think this usually happens near tops and bottoms. We have really gone nowhere since we hit 1500 on s&p. Again, are we basing or topping? I'll just have to wait and see.

 

[clester]

Starting in February volatility has picked up. Swings up and down over 1%. What does that mean? I think this usually happens near tops and bottoms. We have really gone nowhere since we hit 1500 on s&p. Again, are we basing or topping? I'll just have to wait and see.

Chop continues today(futures down) it seems as we had another 1 % move yesterday. I repeat my thesis that this usually happens near tops and bottoms. Now, I still say this is a short term top ( if it really is) and afterwards we will have another big rally. IMHO.

 

[JTH]

Chop continues today(futures down) it seems as we had another 1 % move yesterday. I repeat my thesis that this usually happens near tops and bottoms. Now, I still say this is a short term top ( if it really is) and afterwards we will have another big rally. IMHO.

Agree.

If you take the Monthly PNF's previous 3 upwaves and average them out, then overlay them on the current upwave, that projects a 1560 Price Target.

View attachment 22243

 

[clester]

We still have dip buyers coming in to hold the market up. When will they get tired of not making much on those trades and start taking profits? If that starts then I think a lot of people will want to lock in gains once the trend breaks. That will be the catalyst for a pullback.

I get the feeling we have a tired market. The bulls have charged ahead at a brisk pace and are out of breath. Once they catch their breath we can charge on ahead. Of course, we could keep walking for a while. Anyway, the odds favor a pullback. That doesn't mean it will happen but I think you have to play the odds.

One problem is that so many folks are talking about expecting a pullback that it may not happen. I am open to getting back in if it doesnt.

Looks like I'm staying put again today.

On a personal note, my classes are going well. Did my first web site with 3 pages using CSS styling and links etc. In java, I just finished my first project. Pretty easy, although I've had some programming experience so...

I had forgotten how much fun programming can be and why i chose it for a major the first time around. I am enjoying it so far.

 

[ATCHUNTman]

Glad your classes are going well. Enjoy reading your market thoughts daily.

We still have dip buyers coming in to hold the market up. When will they get tired of not making much on those trades and start taking profits? If that starts then I think a lot of people will want to lock in gains once the trend breaks. That will be the catalyst for a pullback.

I get the feeling we have a tired market. The bulls have charged ahead at a brisk pace and are out of breath. Once they catch their breath we can charge on ahead. Of course, we could keep walking for a while. Anyway, the odds favor a pullback. That doesn't mean it will happen but I think you have to play the odds.

One problem is that so many folks are talking about expecting a pullback that it may not happen. I am open to getting back in if it doesnt.

Looks like I'm staying put again today.

On a personal note, my classes are going well. Did my first web site with 3 pages using CSS styling and links etc. In java, I just finished my first project. Pretty easy, although I've had some programming experience so...

I had forgotten how much fun programming can be and why i chose it for a major the first time around. I am enjoying it so far.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

We still have dip buyers coming in to hold the market up. When will they get tired of not making much on those trades and start taking profits? If that starts then I think a lot of people will want to lock in gains once the trend breaks. That will be the catalyst for a pullback.

I get the feeling we have a tired market. The bulls have charged ahead at a brisk pace and are out of breath. Once they catch their breath we can charge on ahead. Of course, we could keep walking for a while. Anyway, the odds favor a pullback. That doesn't mean it will happen but I think you have to play the odds.

One problem is that so many folks are talking about expecting a pullback that it may not happen. I am open to getting back in if it doesnt.

Looks like I'm staying put again today....

Couldn't agree more. Playing the odds is the only way to play.

I think you are right in staying put. I would not want to buy in at this level. Be patient, and I think you will be able to enter at a lower price in the near future.

Good luck!

 

[clester]

Glad your classes are going well. Enjoy reading your market thoughts daily.

Thanks Jeff, good to know somebody reads them. It's good therapy for me too. To get me to think things through.

 

[clester]

Couldn't agree more. Playing the odds is the only way to play.

I think you are right in staying put. I would not want to buy in at this level. Be patient, and I think you will be able to enter at a lower price in the near future.

Good luck!

Thanks. Patience is the key. It's hard though.

 

[clester]

Over on JTH's thread he was talking about the I funds poor performance which Got me interested in checking it out. The chart actually looks pretty good. The pullback has happened there but not on US funds. So, I am watching it for a possible move there soon. I don't like making a move on a Friday so I may wait till Monday and see where we go. The main thing to watch there is the Usd trend. The I fund has a big chunck of Japan and a big chunck of Brittan , and the rest mostly Europe if I remember correctly. The biggest holdings are mostly british stocks and HSBC was one of the biggest which is a bank. Anyway, I think you can look at the $ftse and the dollar/pound to get a pretty good feel for how the index will move. It's tricky though and the daily "fair valuations" can be maddening.

Something to consider.

 

[clester]

Well, this week seems to be starting out like last week with a down Monday. Will it bounce again? I just have to think that dip buyers are getting tired and most should have already bought in, so there is less money to buy in.

I don't believe small investors are ready to rotate out of bonds yet. Some will never come back. The last two big bear markets have burned many too much. They still don't trust it.

Anyway, my System doesn't have a new buy signal anywhere. Ideally, I should still be in 50% if we're following my system. In hind sight I should have. I tend to regret not following it. The problem for me now is when to get back in if the the pullback doesn't happen. My system doesn't have a plan for that because I shouldn't have gotten all out anyway. The I fund is getting interesting.if it could hit its 50 dma I may buy there. I still figure a sell off is coming but since everyone is too it may take longer. When most people figure it won't is when it will.

Even though i've missed this last bit of a rally I am still very happy with a 5% gain ytd. Psychology is a huge part stock trading. You can't force your trades. That's why a system is so helpful.

 

[clester]

Boy, it's hard waiting for a pullback. Doesn't seem like we'll ever get it. I just don't think now is the time to chase though. We may be on a repeat of last year where we were up 12% before we got a pull back. The volatility has almost stopped. Is that good? Normally, I would say yes.

 

[JTH]

Boy, it's hard waiting for a pullback. Doesn't seem like we'll ever get it. I just don't think now is the time to chase though. We may be on a repeat of last year where we were up 12% before we got a pull back. The volatility has almost stopped. Is that good? Normally, I would say yes.

Yea there's nothing worse then stepping aside, then watching the markets nickel & dime to the upside. It's action, but not enough to convince a rational person to jump in within the 2 IFT system.

 

[clester]

The charts remind me of a pencil or something. They're pointing up but tapering off to a fine point fom top and bottom. Not much movement this week but it has been up. They just look funny.

 

[Bquat]

Yea there's nothing worse then stepping aside, then watching the markets nickel & dime to the upside. It's action, but not enough to convince a rational person to jump in within the 2 IFT system.

You guys are making me nervious:worried: but not enough to convince an unrational person to jump out within the 2 IFT system. Like my play on words? I'm just one wearing the other shoe with 1 IFT left but still in.

 

[clester]

For my system, I need to be in 50% stocks and I've been out for a couple weeks. The u.s. market looks toppy to me, so I've been looking at the I fund today. The currency situation had me concerned but looking at the charts of the various currencies against the Usd I have deduced that the moves there may have topped or at least won't keep hurting the I fund as much.

 

[clester]

For my system, I need to be in 50% stocks and I've been out for a couple weeks. The u.s. market looks toppy to me, so I've been looking at the I fund today. The currency situation had me concerned but looking at the charts of the various currencies against the Usd I have deduced that the moves there may have topped or at least won't keep hurting the I fund as much.

Looks like I won't make a move again today. Boy, it's hard to stay patient. I fund is close to breaking out of a cup and handle formation, so I'll wait and see what happens there. S fund has had its RSI over 70 for almost every day this year. That is very unusual. It has to fall soon IMO. Again, should have stuck to my system and stayed in 50%. I won't compound that by getting in near the top. I can feel good about this year being up 5%. That was my yearly goal when I retired which makes me even more cautious and why I don't feel left behind. Psychology is very important in investing.

 

[clester]

Looks like I won't make a move again today. Boy, it's hard to stay patient. I fund is close to breaking out of a cup and handle formation, so I'll wait and see what happens there. S fund has had its RSI over 70 for almost every day this year. That is very unusual. It has to fall soon IMO. Again, should have stuck to my system and stayed in 50%. I won't compound that by getting in near the top. I can feel good about this year being up 5%. That was my yearly goal when I retired which makes me even more cautious and why I don't feel left behind. Psychology is very important in investing.

Besides, I have my intro to java programming class in an hour. That keeps my mind off the market some.

Public class Tsp
{
public static void main(String[] args)
{
Boolean satisfaction=true,patience=true;
}
}

 

[jkenjohnson]

Looks like I won't make a move again today. Boy, it's hard to stay patient. I fund is close to breaking out of a cup and handle formation, so I'll wait and see what happens there. S fund has had its RSI over 70 for almost every day this year. That is very unusual. It has to fall soon IMO. Again, should have stuck to my system and stayed in 50%. I won't compound that by getting in near the top. I can feel good about this year being up 5%. That was my yearly goal when I retired which makes me even more cautious and why I don't feel left behind. Psychology is very important in investing.

I have been looking for a pullback for two weeks now, and have been wrong, wrong, wrong.

 

[clester]

I have been looking for a pullback for two weeks now, and have been wrong, wrong, wrong.

Frustrating isn't it? But that's what the market likes to do. When we all quit looking for it, then it will happen.

 

[Birchtree]

The bull likes to take as few people as possible to the upside and as many as possible to the downside. The bull likes to punish the cash hoarding pole sitters.