weatherweenie
Well-known member
I sure thought Apple's action was going to take the rest of the markets down. You would think the punch bowl has to be taken away sooner or later.
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I agree clester, it's a market much like January of last year, when it got ridiculously overheated, but kept climbing week after week. I like to use the RSI like the engine temperature gauge in my car. Yeah it's getting hot, but we're still accelerating, and the tachometer hasn't pegged yet!
There is no doubt that the next move is down, but I'm buckling up and enjoying the ride until I see the technical indicators turn down.
Keep the money flowing, boys, I like the positive returns going into my TSP!
clester
Well-known member
When the RSI gets over 80 the engine is going to blow unless you slow down. I would rather slow down than blow up.I agree clester, it's a market much like January of last year, when it got ridiculously overheated, but kept climbing week after week. I like to use the RSI like the engine temperature gauge in my car. Yeah it's getting hot, but we're still accelerating, and the tachometer hasn't pegged yet!
There is no doubt that the next move is down, but I'm buckling up and enjoying the ride until I see the technical indicators turn down.
Keep the money flowing, boys, I like the positive returns going into my TSP!
Today the $tran is finally having a down day. It's RSI was about 86 yesterday. The $emw RSI is just below 80. That's what I'm in, the S fund. So, I may go ahead and sell my last 25% today. I will be looking for a buying opportunity because I think after a pullback we will have another big rally. When will a pullback happen? As soon as everyone thinks it won't. We are about there IMO.
clester
Well-known member
So far you are right.
clester
Well-known member
Boy, I am glad I left some in the market. Of course, if I had stuck to my system I would have stayed 50% in. According to my system is should go to G fund now since the S fund has RSI over 80. I talked about waiting for a confirmation to go all cash and if I had waited for that I would still be in 50% waiting for a break of the trend. I took 25% out just to lock in profits. The 50-50 strategy has worked great. Although, I missed a little gain. I am still looking for a break of trend to get out. I'll let it ride until then.
The problem with getting out is then to decide when it's prudent to get back in. That's when you could easily make a mistake. Which I have done many times. I can't move back into markets until February so I get to watch. I would love to get a good pullback before then. It's going to be a good year and a good spring.
The problem with getting out is then to decide when it's prudent to get back in. That's when you could easily make a mistake. Which I have done many times. I can't move back into markets until February so I get to watch. I would love to get a good pullback before then. It's going to be a good year and a good spring.
Kaufmanrider
Member
Better to miss out on some gains then to suffer loses. Feb is just a few days away.
NiteFlyer
Member
I have never liked this thought. I prefer, "Better to be in the market when it is going up and not in it when it is going down (within the range of IFT limitations)."
Kaufmanrider
Member
You have three choices, In/Out/sidelines. I prefer to play it safe. But to each their own. I am not a gambler and try to minimize risk.
Yes, darn those IFT limitations. When I roll my money out next year I can actually expand my investments, use stops, and not
be limited to just two IFT's. It'll be nice to be able to buy in two, three, four times a month if I want to.
clester
Well-known member
this is a key point. We all have our own comfort level with risk. Plus if you young or retired makes a difference. That's why everyone should listen to themselves first. Trust your instincts but not your emotions. Take other peoples opinions on this site with a grain of salt. Listen, but don't Blindly follow someone. You will not be happy in the long run. I used to be swayed by folks arguments then be mad because it didn't work out and I lost money and change to someone else's position etc.
I have moved to the more conservative approach and have come up with a system that helps eliminate emotions. that works for me. I am happy even though I wasn't 100% in for the whole month. I dont always follow my own system and usually regret it. The 100% moves in and out only is very risky IMO. I think it's prudent to take profits on the way up and in bear markets don't put all your money at risk.
Patience is very hard and with 2 IFTs you have to be patient. It makes you slow way down. It was a hard transition for me to go from daily trades to 2.
For my position this week, I don't expect to make a trade this week unless the trend breaks down. February is close at hand and a lot could happen before Friday at noon deadline. Still hoping for and expecting a pull back but the trend I'd your friend.
clester
Well-known member
I think the pullback may have started. The RSI's are coming down and the trend for higher RSI has broken. The leader, $tran, has slowed is climb and may be exhausted finally. The price trend is still intact but if we do break that trend we could get a wave of profit taking. It will start slowly because there are still a lot of dip buyers out there.
Time to start looking for buying opportunities. The 50 dma would be a good one. We may not get that much if a pull back though. I should follow my system and go to cash. Only 2 days left untill a new month.
Time to start looking for buying opportunities. The 50 dma would be a good one. We may not get that much if a pull back though. I should follow my system and go to cash. Only 2 days left untill a new month.
clester
Well-known member
I've decided to follow my system and go 100% G. The RSI over 80 on $emw is my trigger since that's the fund I'm in.
JTH
Well-known member
So the question for me is what principle will get you back in?
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
You might be making a good call here. We all know it's just a matter of time till we go down. Like JTH, I'm also wondering what level on the RSI you use to get back in.
Good luck!
FishinFool
Member
Follow Inspector Clouseau.
"Instinct!!!"
I went largely to G on 1/23 and regretted missing some gains but was worried about pullback. It was imminent then... and by golly it still is!!!
I think most people are wondering when to jump back in... I know I am. And I sure wish we could trade in closer to real time
With my luck the Dow/S&P will sink about 167 points one day, be down another 125 the next a.m., I'll fire away on IFT and then by COB it'll be up 45 points...Believe me it happens! Keep saying this to yourself- "The trend is your friend" " The trend is your friend" "The trend is your friend" Trading and investing is not an exact science! I have lots of bruises to prove it!
clester
Well-known member
Well, that's a good question. I am looking for some area of support like maybe the 50 dma or a good chart formation or an RSI back around 50. I don't expect much of a pullback (maybe 3-5%) so a oversold type of a bounce is probably out of the question. My system says I should be in at least 50% since we're in a bull market, so I'll probably be looking for any decent place to put that back in. The s fund underperforming today could be a sign that the markets are exhausted. It usually leads.
Anyway, the problem with being out is that you have to make a decision to get back in. That is usually hard.
clester
Well-known member
It's hard sell during a rally too!
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