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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
I think we are at a near term top now. But I expect the pullback to fairly short and i expect another big rally this spring. Jmho.
clester
Well-known member
New month. New trades. So now I have to make a decision on when to get back in. The overbought indicaters have come down some. I would like to see more if a pullback though. My system is to be at least 50% in stocks during a bull market unless rsi gets iver 80. For s fund its come down to 71 but is that enough. My thinking is to put that 50% back in soon. Maybe today.
clester
Well-known member
I have that left behind feeling. Like I'm missing out ! That's as good a contrarian signal as I can get. Not buying today.
Kaufmanrider
Member
I agree, the month is early yet. Save my IFT's for another day. But I did stay 25% in for this bull market, 13-S, 12-I.
clester
Well-known member
I've been in this position before and ruined a year by buying back in too soon and then not getting back out. Timing is hard. The easy part has already played out. But, I've seen the market ride higher and not give you another chance. I'm leaning toward staying safe. I have a 5% year so far and that's not bad. Of course, I play the odds and the odds usually pan out but not always and I am more conservative these days. I still see a pullback coming. I think March-June will be good though.
Cactus
Well-known member
I certainly wouldn't be thinking of buying in based on today's market action. I think a large part of this could be attributed to the First-Day-of-the-Month effect. :nuts: You'd probably feel better sleeping on it over the weekend and looking at it again on Monday. You might not feel left behind by then.
clester
Well-known member
You sound just like everyone on cnbc. Man are they bullish. Buy, buy, buy.... Especially the fast money guys. I've never heard them so bullish. It's a little scary.
Btw, I'm not greedy. But I do like to make money. I don't like to lose it. Being retired I am more conservative than some and I'm happy with that.
clester
Well-known member
I was just thinking. Remember how a few months ago apple was going straight up. Everyone was jumping on board. Cramer said its going to the moon because it was under owned by fund managers. It was cheap by valuation. Everyone was so euphoric about it. It was the most valuable company. Well, look where it is now. I'm not saying this will happen to the market but when everyone is in love it could be a top. The market feels now like apple did then. Most people are euphoric over the market. They hedge their comments to cover themselves but they are almost giddy on tv. just my 2 cents.....
ILoveTDs
Member
I believe your right it will come back down, I see a -7 or 8% month this year I just don't see it in February and probably not in March, but I'll call that one later. My perdiction on February S fund 1.something%, I fund 3.something%. just my 2 cents....
Birchtree
Well-known member
Don't you remember the huge ranges of 400 points when the market was bottoming back in 2008-2009 - well the opposite may transpire as we move to new all time highs. It would simply be delicious if we opened up with a +500 banger. The 200 day moving average is now upward sloping and we may not see much give back within the indexes nor are we going to see lukewarm, steady buying - nope a strong buying panic approaches.
wavecoder
Active member
500? why not 1000? would be freakin awesome to have a 1000 or 2000 point day like 2008, but the up direction :nuts:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Big money hedge funds that missed the move up so far are starting to pile in quickly - that's power to move prices higher with big open gaps. It's only the little guy, who doesn't understand what has just happened, that continues to fight the trend change. This is usually about the time that I see the technicians start calling for this or that resistance level or trend line to put a halt to the rally. They are, of course, assuming this is a bear market rally and it will soon be over.
clester
Well-known member
Will the dip be bought today? If not, it could finally be the start of a pullback. I knew it would be slow at first if it ever came. It has been slow to start because so many were buying the dips intraday. If profit taking kicks in and momentum players get out we could get a decent pullback. I am still looking for a good spring and a good place to get back in.
jkenjohnson
Active member
You're sitting pretty nice at 5+ %. Congrats. I just got back form Jamaica and have been out of touch.
clester
Well-known member
Yeah mon.
clester
Well-known member
If the pullback continues I'm looking at about Spx about 1460 for a bottom. Trends line support and 50 dma will be there soon. RSIs have come off some and somewhere around 40-50 value would be a perfect buy. I hope all that comes to be. Then we're off to the races again IMO.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Looks like you timed your exit pretty well. Depending on tomorrow's open, I may join you in the G Fund. I'm not expecting a major correction, but we're due for a pullback for a few days. If the markets rebound, I will hang on for a few more points.
Good luck!
clester
Well-known member
Thanks. I think this is a common sentiment. That's why I think that if we start down a lot of folks will jump off the train and we could get a decent pullback. Today, it looks like the dip buyers are back. But, we have started to chop around here. This could be a sideways consolidation or the slow start to a pullback. We have worked of the overbought status. Time will tell. There nothing compelling for anyone to buy or sell here IMO. I do want to get my 50% back in there soon. Maybe if we make a new high or if we get a good pullback. I don't like being all out.
