clester's Account Talk

[clester]

I have my finger on the sell button but today wasn't the day. We are inching closer to an 80 RSI on $Emw (74) as well as $tran. These are 2 leaders of the indices. An 80 is a extreme overbought value and almost always leads to a pull back. Not necessarily a big one. In my system that would be a sell and override my other indicators. So, it's coming and probably any day now we will get to 80 IMO. Usually, on the s&p we don't get much above 70. In stong trends we can stay up over 70 for a while like the Nasdaq did last year.

 

[clester]

Still not much different today. Yesterday S fund outperformed and today is lagging. I fund looks to be starting a pullback.

One interesting thing I saw this morning is the $tran chart. Wow, is all you can say. It's been straight up and it's RSI is at 76 this morning and has been over 70 for a while. This index may be a canary in the coal mine for when we start a pullback. I'm surprised at the strength of the market but a pull back is coming. I hear lots of analysts saying stuff like "this is a generational buying opportunity". Perhaps it is, but as soon as average folk give in and buy we will have a pullback. I think that's happening now.

My crystal ball says we have a pullback soon that lasts til mid February and then it's off to the races. That coincides with the debt ceiling cliff as well. Seems to me the debt ceiling isn't getting enough attention. The stock market is too complacent about it.

So, still looking for a confirmation to sell. Nothing yet.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Still not much different today. Yesterday S fund outperformed and today is lagging. I fund looks to be starting a pullback.

One interesting thing I saw this morning is the $tran chart. Wow, is all you can say. It's been straight up and it's RSI is at 76 this morning and has been over 70 for a while. This index may be a canary in the coal mine for when we start a pullback. I'm surprised at the strength of the market but a pull back is coming. I hear lots of analysts saying stuff like "this is a generational buying opportunity". Perhaps it is, but as soon as average folk give in and buy we will have a pullback. I think that's happening now.

My crystal ball says we have a pullback soon that lasts til mid February and then it's off to the races. That coincides with the debt ceiling cliff as well. Seems to me the debt ceiling isn't getting enough attention. The stock market is too complacent about it.

So, still looking for a confirmation to sell. Nothing yet.

I just noticed that you are within about 1% of the top of the Autotracker.

 

[clester]

I just noticed that you are within about 1% of the top of the Autotracker.

Hey. Don't jinx me.

 

[JTH]

Hey. Don't jinx me.

You're right, I haven't noticed it yet, pretty soon the news stories will start shifting to the negative, trying to scare the markets into a pullback, it should be fun

 

[jkenjohnson]

Hey. Don't jinx me.

Ok. I'll rattle my chicken bones and de-jinx you.

 

[jkenjohnson]

You're right, I haven't noticed it yet, pretty soon the news stories will start shifting to the negative, trying to scare the markets into a pullback, it should be fun

BAC might do that today?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

BAC might do that today?

Try over-riding good jobs and housing numbers... not

 

[jkenjohnson]

Try over-riding good jobs and housing numbers... not

I agree now after that data came out. We may see a rally!

 

[clester]

Rally again today is pushing my RSI indicator up closer to 80 on $emw as well as $tran. We could continue a little highe IMO but not much more. I still don't have a confirmation of a sell signal. I'm getting itchy to get out. The 50-50 strategy has worked well keeping me in for the last part of this rally. So, I'll stick with it.

 

[Frixxxx]

Testing of upper sides today......I think if we see good support, it's a hold and upward market.....If we see an afternoon sell-off

 

[MaStA]

I was contemplating jumping out today, but maybe I will tomorrow...we shall see. I will still have an opportunity to get back in this month, but even if I end January +3% that is just fine in my books for one month.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Rally again today is pushing my RSI indicator up closer to 80 on $emw as well as $tran. We could continue a little highe IMO but not much more. I still don't have a confirmation of a sell signal. I'm getting itchy to get out. The 50-50 strategy has worked well keeping me in for the last part of this rally. So, I'll stick with it.

I'm thinking about going to the G tomorrow with my meager earnings. I could not get in at the end of December when everyone else did, so I missed a lot of the upside.

 

[clester]

I'm thinking about going to the G tomorrow with my meager earnings. I could not get in at the end of December when everyone else did, so I missed a lot of the upside.

I'm watching it closely. The $emw is in a tight channel and it's RSI has been over 70 for a couple weeks. For me, either we hit 80 on the RSI or we drop out of the channel before I sell. These situations can go on much longer than you think. The 50-50 position is great in these cases. If I had taken all my money out when I sold 50% I would have missed another % or more.

 

[jkenjohnson]

What does your crystal ball say for today?

 

[clester]

What does your crystal ball say for today?

We must have posted at the same time. See my post above.

 

[jkenjohnson]

We must have posted at the same time. See my post above.

That's kind of scarey.

 

[clester]

I'm watching it closely. The $emw is in a tight channel and it's RSI has been over 70 for a couple weeks. For me, either we hit 80 on the RSI or we drop out of the channel before I sell. These situations can go on much longer than you think. The 50-50 position is great in these cases. If I had taken all my money out when I sold 50% I would have missed another % or more.

I am considering selling another 25% today just because I have had a good month already and the risk of a sell off is rising. But I would still have 25% in S fund. Or I could move it to another fund.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I am considering selling another 25% today just because I have had a good month already and the risk of a sell off is rising. But I would still have 25% in S fund. Or I could move it to another fund.

I might be going to the G fund with my meager gains for the month.

 

[clester]

I am considering selling another 25% today just because I have had a good month already and the risk of a sell off is rising. But I would still have 25% in S fund. Or I could move it to another fund.

After thinking it over I think this is a good plan. I will sell the last 25% based on trend or RSI. So I'm going 75G 25S.