clester's Account Talk

[clester]

I don't normally like to use comparisons like this but for some reason my gut says this time it will work and it appears to be right on. The chart here http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37338.html of the presidential cycle and s&p has worked since the election and with the debt limit coming the drop in first quarter about February looks like it could play out. The S fund seems to be following it a little better.If so, there is a big rally coming from march till July. This chart has been a factor in my trading so far and I will continue to use it in my system which means sitting out most of February. Of course, this is just one factor in my system.

The chart seems to be right on with this pullback. Bottom line though is that it will be a downtrend until sometime in February which coincides with debt limit fight. If I were following the chart only, I would just get out til then. The RSI indicator for $emw was on a sell an is now in a downtrend, another negative. Right now the only reason I'm 50% in stocks is that we are in a bull market. 50 dma above 200 dma. My gut says the chart above will play out and I should just get out for now but I surely don't want to miss the rally when it comes either. Another plus of the 59-50 strategy.

 

[Frixxxx]

Happy Birthday Clester!

 

[nnuut]

Happy BD buddy have a Good one.

 

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[eccougar]

Happy Birthday Clester.

 

[nasa1974]

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!!

 

[imike023]

Happy birthday clester and thank you for giving us you're opinion about the markets. Helps a lot in choosing what to do with our money.

 

[clester]

Thanks for all the birthday wishes. I had a nice day with my family. I've been blessed. Looking forward to another good year in tsp.

 

[clester]

I'm looking for an opportunity to get back in and I don't see anything soon. The I fund is starting to look interesting around 56 or so where there is good support and has had a decent pullback.. The S fund has RSI over 70 which is overbought signal and C fund just looks like its going nowhere.

 

[Uptrend]

I'm looking for an opportunity to get back in and I don't see anything soon. The I fund is starting to look interesting around 56 or so where there is good support and has had a decent pullback.. The S fund has RSI over 70 which is overbought signal and C fund just looks like its going nowhere.

The I fund (EFA) is moving up on the 60 minute chart, but the daily shows a MACD negative cross, and the weekly is overbought as well. So, while a short pop may be in the works, a longer timeframe does not look very promising.

 

[clester]

The I fund (EFA) is moving up on the 60 minute chart, but the daily shows a MACD negative cross, and the weekly is overbought as well. So, while a short pop may be in the works, a longer timeframe does not look very promising.

Thanks. I do think it could use more of a pullback as well.

I was looking at the chart of $emw and noticed a very similar pattern between the current market and early September. In September we had one last push before a pullback happened. So, while S is overbought its RSI is not to 80 yet like we got back then. I wouldn't be surprised if we got one more push higher and then a nice pullback before the big rally starts in march. That would be a perfect setup.

 

[clester]

Thanks. I do think it could use more of a pullback as well.

I was looking at the chart of $emw and noticed a very similar pattern between the current market and early September. In September we had one last push before a pullback happened. So, while S is overbought its RSI is not to 80 yet like we got back then. I wouldn't be surprised if we got one more push higher and then a nice pullback before the big rally starts in march. That would be a perfect setup.

New high today on S fund.

 

[JTH]

New high today on S fund.

Thanks, I didn't even notice till you pointed it out (forgot to step back and look at the forest.) The S&P 400 has also put in an all time high

 

[clester]

Thanks, I didn't even notice till you pointed it out (forgot to step back and look at the forest.) The S&P 400 has also put in an all time high

The only problem is that we are getting close to a very overbought condition based on RSI indicator but there is room for another 2% or so if we have a last push up. I expect my next trade is to get out because I think we will have another push up. That will be when $emw hits 80 on its RSI. I hope that happens. The pullback could coincide with the debt ceiling deadline which is almost to perfect a condition for a pull back. After the debt ceiling is past I expect another big rally into summer. It's going to be a good year IMO.

 

[JamesE]

CL, you might find this interesting. It goes along with your train of thought, but doesn't look like people are getting too beared up yet.

Sell - Traders-Talk.com

 

[nasa1974]

The only problem is that we are getting close to a very overbought condition based on RSI indicator but there is room for another 2% or so if we have a last push up. I expect my next trade is to get out because I think we will have another push up. That will be when $emw hits 80 on its RSI. I hope that happens. The pullback could coincide with the debt ceiling deadline which is almost to perfect a condition for a pull back. After the debt ceiling is past I expect another big rally into summer. It's going to be a good year IMO.

It's not just the debt ceiling but the budget as well. If Washington can play nice I agree with your analysis. February will give us a headache but if we can have a good outcome I think the money on the sidelines will come out like crazy.

 

[clester]

Interesting day shaping up. Things are changing. S fund is lagging today while I fund is leading and C fund is still in the middle. The S fund is more overbought so maybe it's just waiting on the others to catch up. I think the I fund will come back down soon and fill its gap it made today because there was a big reaction to the ECB today in the euro.

Ive been looking for a reversal signal and maybe a hanging man candle today would be a sign. It will be profit taking.

 

[clester]

Interesting day shaping up. Things are changing. S fund is lagging today while I fund is leading and C fund is still in the middle. The S fund is more overbought so maybe it's just waiting on the others to catch up. I think the I fund will come back down soon and fill its gap it made today because there was a big reaction to the ECB today in the euro.

Ive been looking for a reversal signal and maybe a hanging man candle today would be a sign. It will be profit taking.

I'm looking at 746 or so for a stop loss point if we start down on $emw. It's been a good month so I will lock in profits when it is time. I have a rule to be in at least 50% in a bull market but also to sell in very overbought conditions. Sentiment seems high to me which is a sell signal as well. There are lots of people starting to chase this market which could give us a little more momentum but it usually happens near a high too. I feel like I should sell today but I need confirmation like breaking support or a trend.

 

[JTH]

I'm looking at 746 or so for a stop loss point if we start down on $emw. It's been a good month so I will lock in profits when it is time. I have a rule to be in at least 50% in a bull market but also to sell in very overbought conditions. Sentiment seems high to me which is a sell signal as well. There are lots of people starting to chase this market which could give us a little more momentum but it usually happens near a high too. I feel like I should sell today but I need confirmation like breaking support or a trend.

I agree, it feels like a point in the market where it's time to put up or shut up. We've thrusted, consolidated and now we need to follow-through.

 

[nasa1974]

With market reaction does it feel like some smart money is coming in off the sidelines to take the market higher for the next week or two and then take the profits just before February when Washington tries to get serious about the debt and budget? That battle will drag the markets down until a solution is found. Why not manipulate the markets now and take advantage later.