TSP4Soccer
New member
I'm new at this but glad I pulled 50% out yesterday before deadline. My 25/25 in S and I are screaming at me...
TSP4Soccer
TSP4Soccer
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Darn Good move!
clester
Well-known member
The system predicted the pull back well. The I fund hasn't come off much though with RSI still about 70. C and S have come off a couple days now. I'm looking for a buying opportunity. Perhaps a bounce off the 50 dma? Solution to cliff? I would like to be in for jan 1 but I may not get a buy signal. Trend is down for now so I will probably stay put.
clester
Well-known member
The reversal today happened at just the right time. The C fund is back above its 50 dma and S fund tested support and bounced. Those are buy indications. The RSI's are neutral to slightly negative. We are now oversold based on stochastics. Sentiment is still negative. So, all in all I have a buy signal on S and C. I fund is still overought based on RSI so I won't go there.
So, right now it looks like I will go 100 % S fund tomorrow. I'm worried about fiscal cliff but my system doesn't take news or politics into account. If I go in, I expect a few days rally and another sell.
clester
Well-known member
Since the futures are down, this puts a buy in question for me. The Spx will break the 50 dma again. It's in a tricky spot. If folks sell big ahead of the cliff it might get an oversold buy signal next week.
jkenjohnson
Active member
I've been in Mexico. Went to the G fund to lock in my meager December gains. I'm sitting this out until a deal is done and the dust settles. Days like yesterday are a bit too wild for me.
clester
Well-known member
Turned out to be a good move. We could have a good buying opportunity soon.
jkenjohnson
Active member
I'm out of IFT's so I'll have to wait until 1/1/13 or later.
clester
Well-known member
Looking ahead to next year I see a bumpy but range bound market for about 3 months. So, I think a strategy of playing that range could be profitable. Probably around march I expect a good rally as we recover from the fiscal drag but it won't last. So I plan on being in stocks until July. Of course, I will use my system but this is an overall expectation.
I think that really most folks on this board will do well if they time the swings right. technicals will play an important role. More than last year. I actually think buy and hold this year will do OKay. But I expect to beat the market this year. Something that has been hard to do the last few years.
I don't know what news may come out the next few days but the C fund is in a little trouble, S fund looks OK, and I fund could drop a little more. So, it's cloudy for the next week. I will probably end up staying with my 50-50 exposure with S and G. I expect to buy if we have a big dip.
I think that really most folks on this board will do well if they time the swings right. technicals will play an important role. More than last year. I actually think buy and hold this year will do OKay. But I expect to beat the market this year. Something that has been hard to do the last few years.
I don't know what news may come out the next few days but the C fund is in a little trouble, S fund looks OK, and I fund could drop a little more. So, it's cloudy for the next week. I will probably end up staying with my 50-50 exposure with S and G. I expect to buy if we have a big dip.
JTH
Well-known member
I know I'm being selfish when I say this, I would love to work 2013 as a bear market, but I'll settle for a range-bound market too. It's been a long time, but next year I may start playing the I-Fund again. When it's working boy does it work!
clester
Well-known member
Glad it worked out today. I don't think today is the day to take profits. We have another day or 2 left. Rsi is not overbought yet.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Congrats. I wish I would have had an IFT. But then the Cliff Deal/No Deal had me a little undecided about which way to go.
clester
Well-known member
Thanks. It could've gone either way. I could be congratulating you instead. I just traded my system and it was right. Now the question is for me to know when to get out and for you to get in....
ATCHUNTman
Member
Great call man!! I was going in to stocks last week but I backed out. I missed the big move up. Kudos.
clester
Well-known member
Thanks Jeff. How's that retirement goung? As if I didn't kniw..
Well, we are getting close to a short term top I think. We may have a little left. Maybe hit 1500. I'm thinking of taking some off the table tomorrow. So if we are going to be in a range for a few months the this rally may set the top.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Are you looking at the RSI for DWCPF or the overall market?
clester
Well-known member
Well, today the RSI on $emw is over 71. Spx is at 62. So, since I'm in S fund I have a sell signal there. The problem is that it's an early signal and I don't want to get out too early so I'm looking for confirmation. The Spx looks to be making a huge inverted head and shoulders. It needs to break out to get a good buy signal. S has already broken out so they are on different patterns.
sentiment survey went to a sell. I don't feel like sentiment is too high with all the talk about the debt ceiling coming.
My system calls for only taking 50% out during bull markets. So, I have a tough decision to make. I am probably taking half out today but I will wait a few hours to decide. My instinct tells me we will tread water for a few weeks and once we get closer to debt ceiling we will have a drop which could be a good buying opportunity. I think the second quarter will be good.
clester
Well-known member
I'm going to go ahead and sell 50% today due to signals from my system. The idea of leaving 50% in stocks in a bull market is about not missing a rally if I get out too early. If the RSI's get to 80 then I will sell the other 50% because the odds are very good that it is making a top.
clester
Well-known member
I don't normally like to use comparisons like this but for some reason my gut says this time it will work and it appears to be right on. The chart here http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37338.html of the presidential cycle and s&p has worked since the election and with the debt limit coming the drop in first quarter about February looks like it could play out. The S fund seems to be following it a little better.If so, there is a big rally coming from march till July. This chart has been a factor in my trading so far and I will continue to use it in my system which means sitting out most of February. Of course, this is just one factor in my system.
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