clester
Well-known member
If I do take some profits, I plan to be back in after a week or so. I am bullish for next year.
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
Looks like no move today. I fund keeps hanging in there. S and C funds are still trying to bounce off support. I keep thinking I need to sell some stock but thankfully it's not been triggered yet. Dip buyers? I'm not too happy with C fund but I don't think it's worth using a trade to sell it right now.
clester
Well-known member
Here's my current analysis. C and S fund have now bounced off of a very important support areas. Those points are now my stop loss points. I fund is back over 70 and I'm watching it for a confirmation of my RSI sell signal. If I do sell I fund then I will have to decide where to put it. If C and S funds still look good I may put it there or maybe just put it in G and look for a pull back. But right now I'm still sitting tight.
clester
Well-known member
The system is working well so far. We need to make a higher high (relative to last weeks high) to keep it going. Seems the pols have taken fiscal cliff off the table till after Christmas so it's clear sailing this week and maybe sell 50% after Christmas. Anyway, it's day to day but that's seems like a reasonable scenario. Also, if we do rally all week the RSI's will be in overbought ( over 70) status which is a sell signal. Of course, if we get a deal after Christmas it could be another bounce but could be sell the news.
clester
Well-known member
I was looking at the tracker today. It's pretty sad. Only about 9% on tracker have beat the "buy and hold" strategy of any of our stock funds. I surely haven't. I feel like that's true in years where we are up a lot like this year. I think the advantage to not being buy and hold is in the down years. So, we need to focus more on when to get out more than when to get in?
This is why one of my strategies that I believe Tom (owner of this site) first posited that you should be at least 50% in stocks in a bull market (50 dma above 200 dma) and no more that 50% in stocks in a bear market. It's basically a hedge against getting it wrong.
Anyway, we are in a bull market so I should always leave at least 50% in. I know most of us want to maximize our moves by moving all in or all out but I think I have finally realized that it's not always the best. It's just to hard in our tsp accounts to make moves. So, I like to minimize the number of trades. Also, a lot depends on your age and the amount of time you want to devote to watching your money.
I also don't like trusting my money to someone else. I don't think it's good to follow anyone's trades blindly or even just buy and hold blindly. I say trust your instincts but be sure it's not an emotional one.
Wow, I should get off my soap box now.
As for the markets, I'm still looking for an exit confirmation on the I fund. S and C fund still have some room to run it looks like to me. I want a new high to confirm the uptrend though.
This is why one of my strategies that I believe Tom (owner of this site) first posited that you should be at least 50% in stocks in a bull market (50 dma above 200 dma) and no more that 50% in stocks in a bear market. It's basically a hedge against getting it wrong.
Anyway, we are in a bull market so I should always leave at least 50% in. I know most of us want to maximize our moves by moving all in or all out but I think I have finally realized that it's not always the best. It's just to hard in our tsp accounts to make moves. So, I like to minimize the number of trades. Also, a lot depends on your age and the amount of time you want to devote to watching your money.
I also don't like trusting my money to someone else. I don't think it's good to follow anyone's trades blindly or even just buy and hold blindly. I say trust your instincts but be sure it's not an emotional one.
Wow, I should get off my soap box now.
As for the markets, I'm still looking for an exit confirmation on the I fund. S and C fund still have some room to run it looks like to me. I want a new high to confirm the uptrend though.
craigerv
Member
Clester, you're right. I've looked back at some past tracker results and it is very difficult to outperform the stock funds in up years. The most important thing you can do for yourself is figure out when not to be in, especially with our IFT limitations. The strategy I follow now makes far fewer trades than I used to and mostly relies on larger momentum and getting out before a serious correction. You really only need to miss one big correction for you to outperform in the long run.
is the ~18% of us below the G Fund or the ~10% who are negative for the year. It was worse last year, but still, disheartening.
bighog
New member
I may be playing it too safe. But I am out after today. I agree on a pull back.
clester
Well-known member
I fund is overbought using several different indicators but in a strong move it can stay that way longer than you think. That's why I look for confirmation before selling. I've been expecting that signal for about a week but haven't gotten it yet. Therefore, I ride the wave. Sentiment is getting more bullish which could help short term but contrarians would say it is a reason to sell. An RSI of 80 almost always is a top. I fund is at 76.
clester
Well-known member
I hear that a lot which in my experience means it my not happen.
I was just thinking about Friday being Dec 21,2012. If there is some catastrophe but we're still here I want to be out.... If its the end of the world it won't matter.
But seriously, we are overbought and Friday may be a good day for folks to take profits. I'm considering taking 50% out for that but be back in after a couple days.
Cactus
Well-known member
On the bright side, with 50% in S & I you made a good move yesterday toward getting your head above water.
The AT today is only ~9% negative and ~15% below G. That's a definite improvement from yesterday. How quickly things can change.
clester
Well-known member
I wonder if a couple of days pullback has started. We are overbought on a couple of indicators especially on I fund. C and S still look ok. Is today the day I sell 50%?
Cactus
Well-known member
Except that this morning the I Fund (EFA) is doing better than S & C.
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clester
Well-known member
Yes, but the RSI is almost to 80 which is an overbought sell signal. I think it got to 79. That means a pull back is imminent. On that pullback I may go back there. I am thinking of going 50% S and 50% G for the pullback. C fund is just too tied up with Apple which still looks bad.Except that this morning the I Fund (EFA) is doing better than S & I.
