clester's Account Talk

[clester]

The I fund or Efa is testing a triple top. The S fund broke above it's 50 dma and is pausing and maybe it will test it. C fund tried to beak above it's 50 dma and failed. The RSI's are all still in uptrend and not overbought. We're still in bull market and sentiment is negative which is a contrarian buy signal.

So, all in all, I'm still on buy signal but if we have more than a pause it may be time to take a little off. A 2 or three day pullback is no problem. In any case, I will stay at least 50% in as long as we stay above 200 dma's.

So, it seems we're waiting on Obama after noon to speak. Not sure how that affects the market but I hope he sounds optimistic. My view is that we will go off the "cliff" and then they will start adding things back and get to a reasonable place. That means I will probably want to be at least 50% out by Christmas because the markets will probably throw a fit. I hear lots of folks saying that that will be a good time to buy. So, if everyone is looking to buy the dip then it may not happen.

 

[clester]

We should bounce today if the uptrend stays intact. I am still expecting markets to continue up until somewhere around Christmas maybe a pullback.

 

[clester]

We should bounce today if the uptrend stays intact. I am still expecting markets to continue up until somewhere around Christmas maybe a pullback.

Apple is hurting today. If had had more trades i would get out of C fund. I would move it to S or I. S and I are still looking good. S fund is testing its 50 dma. It should hold.
I'm not sure its wirth burning a trade. I'm expecting 1 trade out and back in this month.

 

[GUCHI]

clester or MB
do you know whats pulling apple down? i for 1 hate to see that,especially since i am not in the position to buy more shares.

 

[clester]

We should bounce today if the uptrend stays intact. I am still expecting markets to continue up until somewhere around Christmas maybe a pullback.

So far so good.

 

[clester]

clester or MB
do you know whats pulling apple down? i for 1 hate to see that,especially since i am not in the position to buy more shares.

I think its that the growth potential is slowing. I personally agree with that. I am a long time apple man but competition is growing in phones and tablets. laptops and desktops are not growing anymore. They've lost the "cool" factor as well because they're so mainstream.

JMHO.

 

[weatherweenie]

clester or MB
do you know whats pulling apple down? i for 1 hate to see that,especially since i am not in the position to buy more shares.

AAPL shares fell more than four percent following news that margin requirements are being raised to 60 percent from 30 percent by COR Clearing.

 

[GUCHI]

ww
it does not ease my pain from appl but it does explain why. thanks

 

[clester]

The I fund continues to drift higher. It's RSI is about 67 and at 70 I start to look for a sell. I am watching its lower trend line for a clue to get out. S fund is building a nice base and now a cup and handle formation. When it breaks out it should be a good run up. C fund is kinda in no mans land.

So, when the S fund breaks above the pivot I may move to all S fund.

Not sure how to play the fiscal cliff so I plan on following my system. Still holding.

 

[jkenjohnson]

The I fund continues to drift higher. It's RSI is about 67 and at 70 I start to look for a sell. I am watching its lower trend line for a clue to get out. S fund is building a nice base and now a cup and handle formation. When it breaks out it should be a good run up. C fund is kinda in no mans land.

So, when the S fund breaks above the pivot I may move to all S fund.

Not sure how to play the fiscal cliff so I plan on following my system. Still holding.

Looks like more sideways trading for now.

 

[clester]

Still considering a move to S fund. I'm thinking the I fund could be topping as we are almost to 70 On RSI and the dollar is strengthening. The S fund could break above the pivot on the cup and handle formation or you could call it an inverse head and shoulder formation. C fund could finally get above it's 50 dma.

 

[MaStA]

Wow we just got a nice spike in the futures from the jobs report. Lets hope it carries to the close!

 

[jkenjohnson]

Wow we just got a nice spike in the futures from the jobs report. Lets hope it carries to the close!

I would have thought that this would be very positive for the market???????????

 

[MaStA]

I would have thought that this would be very positive for the market???????????

Always seems backwards. Good news makes the market go down and vice versa lol.

 

[clester]

I would have thought that this would be very positive for the market???????????

I don't think anything matters right now but the cliff. Nobody seems interested in buying or selling. The one positive I see is all the companies giving special dividends this month. Some may buy just to get the div.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I don't think anything matters right now but the cliff. Nobody seems interested in buying or selling. The one positive I see is all the companies giving special dividends this month. Some may buy just to get the div.

Question is - Are we better off sitting on the sidelines until after January 1, or stay in hoping to get resolution and a rally?

 

[Bquat]

I don't think anything matters right now but the cliff. Nobody seems interested in buying or selling. The one positive I see is all the companies giving special dividends this month. Some may buy just to get the div.

They're giving the dividends this month for next year also to allow their clients to pay 2012 tax rates instead of the higher tax rates for those over $200,000.

 

[Bquat]

They're giving the dividends this month for next year also to allow their clients to pay 2012 tax rates instead of the higher tax rates for those over $200,000.

I'm also wandering if there will be a Santa Rally if big money takes all profit this month to advoid 2013 taxes also. I'm getting nervious about the whole deal even though the cliff will cut a lot of goverment spending.

 

[clester]

Still considering a move to S fund. I'm thinking the I fund could be topping as we are almost to 70 On RSI and the dollar is strengthening. The S fund could break above the pivot on the cup and handle formation or you could call it an inverse head and shoulder formation. C fund could finally get above it's 50 dma.

Not going to make a move today. Dollar has reversed and markets appear to be flat again.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I'm also wandering if there will be a Santa Rally if big money takes all profit this month to advoid 2013 taxes also. I'm getting nervious about the whole deal even though the cliff will cut a lot of goverment spending.

I doubt anyone is going to try to make less money next year just so they can remain in a lower tax bracket. As far as stocks, I don't think traders are going to suddenly sell just because they might have to pay higher taxes on short term gains, they'll still be buying back at some point. I also don't see longer term investors selling their winners since they pay long term capital gains tax instead of what their personal tax rate is (I don't know what they are talking about as far as possible capital gains tax increases) simply because they will only be paying tax on gains anyway. Now they might sell their losers, like Facebook, but it's been making a comeback also. Could be a non-issue, although the big money guys will probably use what amateur traders are thinking to their own advantage. Then again, I could be wrong.........