clester's Account Talk

[clester]

If negative volume is increasing and the red candle sticks are getting longer couldn't we just bounce to 50 before going for a lower low? I'm just wandering since we're below the 200 day and people may be selling peaks to get their money out before Dec 31st for this years tax base. What you think?

If I follow, I say yes. I look for a bounce up to 40ish and then a drop to lower low and retest the 30 area. That seems to be the pattern on past charts. Makes sense. Folks that rode it down will want to get out when there is a bounce.

 

[clester]

I think we could go as low as 1320 or so before bounce. That could be any day with the huge movements. I fund is green. I wonder if it will stay that way.

 

[clester]

I think we could go as low as 1320 or so before bounce. That could be any day with the huge movements. I fund is green. I wonder if it will stay that way.

So, we got a little green on the I fund and a little red on C and more red on S fund. C fund is getting very close to buy and S fund is too. Next week is thanksgiving and a counter trend over the holiday usually happens. I am considering going back in the market soon. Perhaps today. But ideally we would get another good drop to get the RSI to 20. That may not happen. I only have one buy move left or I would slowly buy in. Today we could see a little upside due to short covering for the weekend. That could be a fake out. Any buy in would be short term for 2 or 3 days maybe because I expect another drop to a lower low after a bounce.

 

[jkenjohnson]

So, we got a little green on the I fund and a little red on C and more red on S fund. C fund is getting very close to buy and S fund is too. Next week is thanksgiving and a counter trend over the holiday usually happens. I am considering going back in the market soon. Perhaps today. But ideally we would get another good drop to get the RSI to 20. That may not happen. I only have one buy move left or I would slowly buy in. Today we could see a little upside due to short covering for the weekend. That could be a fake out. Any buy in would be short term for 2 or 3 days maybe because I expect another drop to a lower low after a bounce.

I'm dying the death of a thousand cuts.

 

[clester]

I'm dying the death of a thousand cuts.

I feel for ya. Its hard to watch your funds drifting away. Very frustrating. But, better times are coming. They always do.

 

[clester]

Short covering today IMO. The test will be Monday. I'll be looking to buy if Monday is ok.

 

[clester]

Short covering today IMO. The test will be Monday. I'll be looking to buy if Monday is ok.

Looks like the near term bottom is in as stocks look to open up this morning. This week also starts the holiday season which has positive bias. The selloff shook a lot of folks out. All positive for the markets.

The RSI's have bounced back above 30. Also a positive. The never reached an extreme low to 20 or so. That is also a positive in my mind. We should at least test the 200 dma and maybe the 50 by the end of the month.

So, I have 50% to invest today. Which fund to buy....

 

[JTH]

The dollar looks to be in a position to provide a tailwind to the I-fund.

 

[clester]

Looks like the near term bottom is in as stocks look to open up this morning. This week also starts the holiday season which has positive bias. The selloff shook a lot of folks out. All positive for the markets.

The RSI's have bounced back above 30. Also a positive. The never reached an extreme low to 20 or so. That is also a positive in my mind. We should at least test the 200 dma and maybe the 50 by the end of the month.

So, I have 50% to invest today. Which fund to buy....

Today is why my system has me in stocks a minimum of 50 % during bull markets.

Such a big up day is hard to buy into but usually they have follow through. We are already back to 50 dma. Since we didn't get to extreme lows on the RSI we may not need a retest of 30. I hope to stay in until January.

 

[clester]

 

[clester]

Pulling out the crystal ball, I think we will climb up to 1410 -1420 and base for few days and the rally through Christmas. Early January might be tricky.

 

[bighog]

Pulling out the crystal ball, I think we will climb up to 1410 -1420 and base for few days and the rally through Christmas. Early January might be tricky.

I'm on board for the ride. 100% S

 

[clester]

I see a lot of folks on the tracker going to G or F today. While we have had a nice rally and may have a day or 2 pullback I think we will be in rally mode until Christmas. Maybe a pullback at the end of the month as we wait for fiscal cliff to happen or not.

 

[Khotso]

I see a lot of folks on the tracker going to G or F today. While we have had a nice rally and may have a day or 2 pullback I think we will be in rally mode until Christmas. Maybe a pullback at the end of the month as we wait for fiscal cliff to happen or not.

I'm just wondering what is giving you that confidence in the rally continuing Clester. Can you shed some light on that? Late November through end-of-year track record, contrarian?

 

[Cactus]

I'm just wondering what is giving you that confidence in the rally continuing Clester. Can you shed some light on that? Late November through end-of-year track record, contrarian?

I just bailed out to the G Fund. With my track record that is all the evidence you need to expect the rally to skyrocket from here.

 

[burrocrat]

for what its worth cactus, i think you are on the right side of the trade this time.

 

[clester]

I'm just wondering what is giving you that confidence in the rally continuing Clester. Can you shed some light on that? Late November through end-of-year track record, contrarian?

A few things. We've had a good sell off leading into the holiday season. The RSI's hit 30 or lower which is a buy signal for me and we have bounced from there. Sometimes the 30 level gets retested before rally continues but that is usually if we have a deeper selloff. We are back above 200 dma and still in bull market with the 50 above the 200 dma. We will ,of course, have a day or two pullback along the way but timing those is hard. There are also plenty of worries from Europe to china to the fiscal cliff. Sentiment is still not high as out sentiment survey shows. We have support on the weekly charts that held as well.

Just a little stream of consciousness there. Overall, I think we are fairly safe until the week after Christmas. If fiscal cliff still not resolved it could get a little rough from there through early January IMO. The rsi may get back up to sell territory by then. The 200 dma is my line in the sand if we start back down.

 

[Handballer]

I just bailed out to the G Fund. With my track record that is all the evidence you need to expect the rally to skyrocket from here.

Your WTD gain on the tracker is great.

 

[clester]

Still feeling good about the market. Today shoulda been the big pullback but folks bought the dip. That's a good sign. Still a lot of skeptics. That's good. Barring any bad headlines we should drifting up for a while.

 

[clester]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37338.html

Nice chart