clester
Well-known member
Maybe, and the momentum to the downside will be hard to break. I have to admit I'm getting nervous now. S&p down over 20 is a sell signal for me.
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
JTH
Well-known member
clester
Well-known member
I will sell unless we bounce Monday due to the sell trigger of over 20. Although I've thought about revising that to percentage down like 2% which we are under. But 20 is about 1.5% and a nice round number and indicates heavy selling that usually continues for a while.Have to re-draw all my charts this weekend
clester
Well-known member
Thankfully thing seem to have settled down this weekend. Right now looking flat. Hopefully those worried about earnings sold Friday .
Anyway, we are at or above the 50 dma In our funds. So, I'm in he same position as last week. We are still at a good spot for a rally. I expect a climb this week. I still think we could head to 1500 on s&p before we get a big pullback. A couple days confirmation below the 50 dma will be sell point. The big selloff was scary. In my system it's a sell ( over 20 point selloff in a day) but as long as we stay over 50 dma I will stay in.
jkenjohnson
Active member
I was thinking about jumping ship today. It's all news driven (earnings) again.
clester
Well-known member
Interesting market. Down yesterday then a climb back to about even by the end. Today futures down about 1%. Volitilaty is definitely picking up.
My gut say we will end today in the green. Technically, we are close to losing the 50 dma trigger on the S fund today. Otherwise I am still bullish but near sell triggers. Lots of earning and other news driving market.
My gut say we will end today in the green. Technically, we are close to losing the 50 dma trigger on the S fund today. Otherwise I am still bullish but near sell triggers. Lots of earning and other news driving market.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Good luck, I'm out.
clester
Well-known member
Looks like that was the best move.
Emotionally things seems very scary. Sentiment is terrible. Seems like a good time to buy from a contrarian standpoint. But these things can continue longer than you think.
MaStA
Member
What I struggle with the most these days is what moves to make with my Roth IRA. I've only been investing in it for two years and have 80% of my money in CAT/MCD. My CAT was up about $400-500 and now is back down to under $100 in the green. Most people have said to just buy and hold on your Roth, but letting those earnings slip away kinda sucks. Dividends are nice as well, but still...
How do you play the cards on your Roth if you don't mind me asking? Thanks!
How do you play the cards on your Roth if you don't mind me asking? Thanks!
clester
Well-known member
My Roth and regular Ira accounts are in 100% stock funds. I don't trade them often. So, I would say they're buy and hold accounts.
As far as the stock market, I can't explain it but I feel optimistic. Maybe it's denial. But in these big selloffs I usually get really nervous. Why aren't I this time? I will probably take some off the table because my system says to.
As far as the stock market, I can't explain it but I feel optimistic. Maybe it's denial. But in these big selloffs I usually get really nervous. Why aren't I this time? I will probably take some off the table because my system says to.
Clester, I doubt if it makes you feel much better right now, but I too feel the market will turn around before the close and finish in the green. That's why they call today "Turn-around Tuesday". However, you should know that I am rarely correct in my judgement of what the market will do. I do think it will drop considerably more before the bulls come in with "horses and bayonettes" charging at the close. Markets do not like uncertainty, and after hearing the debate last night, foreign markets are still trying to figure out how they stand in Americas shadow, and it will take a while for our traders to figure all the angles of chance if their candidate wins or doesn't. That is my crude way of justifying my obvious unscrupulous premise of todays market action. We need a miracle today. By the way, did you know we have fewer ships today than we had in 1916? I didn't. Wish they would fact check that.:laugh::laugh::laugh:
sniper
Active member
i doubt it's going to finish in the green, the dow has over 200 points to cover to do that.
clester
Well-known member
I fund bounced off 50 dma and is filling its gap, s fund is at bottom of descending channel, and c fund doesn't have much positive on chart except it's above 200 dma. Sentiment is very bearish.
So, I expect a bounce for at least a few days and perhaps a run back up toward highs going into election day. Futures are positive. If we can finish that way there will be traders jumping back in or closing short positions.
So, I expect a bounce for at least a few days and perhaps a run back up toward highs going into election day. Futures are positive. If we can finish that way there will be traders jumping back in or closing short positions.
clester
Well-known member
The market appears to be bottoming or at least consolidating. The reversal of futures this morning suggests a bottom. We are at a pivotal point. To be honest, I was set to sell this morning. I think as long as that 1400 area holds there will be buyers.
I knew a buying opportunity was coming this month, I just jumped a little early. I think we are at a buying opportunity now. As bad a earning season has been we have had a mild selloff. It coulda been much worse. The RSI indicator I use is not at buy signal yet but it's close. We could go down another 1-2% and trigger that buy signal. So downside is limited to that and upside is back to highs or about 5%. So risk/reward is good.
clester
Well-known member
Well, been a few days since I posted. Long weekend, hurricane etc. Election next week. I was on the edge of the heavy snow area but we missed it.
Its been interesting.
As far as the markets, I was glad to see we didn't sell off after the storm. I still think we are basing here and should start to climb back up. There are still a lot of worries but there usually are. I expect to be in stocks for a while. I fund looks the best right now and c fund feels like the weakest. S fund is ok. I repeat my earlier feeliing that I fund may be the best due to election and fiscal cliff. I'm looking at moving more funds there.
Its been interesting.
As far as the markets, I was glad to see we didn't sell off after the storm. I still think we are basing here and should start to climb back up. There are still a lot of worries but there usually are. I expect to be in stocks for a while. I fund looks the best right now and c fund feels like the weakest. S fund is ok. I repeat my earlier feeliing that I fund may be the best due to election and fiscal cliff. I'm looking at moving more funds there.
clester
Well-known member
Ok.now back to Europe ? Ahhhh, I am so tired of hearing about it and the fiscal cliff. The news cycle again...
Well I wouldn't be surprised with some buying coming in. We seldom sell off this much and stay down. As long as we stay above the 1400-1395 area I'm staying in. If I wasn't in I would probably buy today with a stop at 1395. Let's see how it plays out. Volatility has definitely picked up. We probably opened up gaps too all over the place that will need filling.
Well I wouldn't be surprised with some buying coming in. We seldom sell off this much and stay down. As long as we stay above the 1400-1395 area I'm staying in. If I wasn't in I would probably buy today with a stop at 1395. Let's see how it plays out. Volatility has definitely picked up. We probably opened up gaps too all over the place that will need filling.
clester
Well-known member
Another thought. If this is sell the news, then it is too obvious and telegraphed to stick.
clester
Well-known member
I heard that too. All the indicies were down exactly the same percentage which is odd. Some big player must've dumped everything.
Looking at the charts, the I fund looks the best, S fund is next, and C is last. My inclination is to move to all I fund. It would avoid a lot of our political fighting. Although it woul get pulled along. It could be safer.IMO
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