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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
Hind sight is always 20-20 but I try to learn from my mistakes. A couple weeks back when google reported and we dropped over 20 points on s&p ( a sell signal for my system) I decided to stay in. It has cost me. When will I learn. The system is there for a reason.
Thats history. Moving ahead I am reviewing my system for appropriate moves. Sentiment is very negative ( a buy signal) The RSI below 30 (ideally down to 20) is a buy but we are still above that by a little but another good down day will do it. Also, the 50 dma is above the 200 ( bull market) which means I should be at least 50% in stocks. If we don't get a confirmation of 2 or 3 trades below the 200 dma then I will stay in. We have had 1 on s&p. So, at this point we are too close to a buy on RSI indicator to sell now and haven't gotten confirmation of 200 dma. So, maybe I will have to endure some more pain. My resolve is to learn from my mistakes and just follow my system.
These big down days are hard on the psyche. But, I do feel in my gut we will be ok.
Thats history. Moving ahead I am reviewing my system for appropriate moves. Sentiment is very negative ( a buy signal) The RSI below 30 (ideally down to 20) is a buy but we are still above that by a little but another good down day will do it. Also, the 50 dma is above the 200 ( bull market) which means I should be at least 50% in stocks. If we don't get a confirmation of 2 or 3 trades below the 200 dma then I will stay in. We have had 1 on s&p. So, at this point we are too close to a buy on RSI indicator to sell now and haven't gotten confirmation of 200 dma. So, maybe I will have to endure some more pain. My resolve is to learn from my mistakes and just follow my system.
These big down days are hard on the psyche. But, I do feel in my gut we will be ok.
clester
Well-known member
As it looks right now I will be making an IFT today. S fund has had several days closing below 200 dma and C fund is right at it and will probably follow. I fund is still in neutral area. In my system, I stay 50% in stocks minimum when we are in a bull market. So, my choice will be the I fund. F fund is in uptrend so instead of G I will go there. 50I and 50F as of this morning. If we rebound before noon and get above 200 dma I will stay the course. When RSI's get under 30 and preferably down to 20 I will get back in. We still have several percentage points down to get there.
I feel like we will rally soon. I hope it starts today. I want to stay in.
I feel like we will rally soon. I hope it starts today. I want to stay in.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Today isn't looking to good right now.
Bquat
Well-known member
I don't see the rally today but when the deal is struct with congress it should be a 6-8 % rally. I may have to look at risk to gain after the market drop this morning because I would like to be in for it too.
clester
Well-known member
Looks like we are getting it. At least we're back to even. Good to see some buyers coming in. Maybe I can stay 100% stocks.
Bquat
Well-known member
I still need to see 1391 to trust this move and the 200 day has held twice as resistance. So I wait and see. We did have a short term double bottom but it's not working. Yet?
clester
Well-known member
Noon deadline..... Now I'm back on selling 50% tomorrow. I got faked out.
clester
Well-known member
With futures up I may get to stay in again. We keep bouncing around the 200 dma. Who knows.Noon deadline..... Now I'm back on selling 50% tomorrow. I got faked out.
jkenjohnson
Active member
If we don't rally soon, I'm going to stroke out.
JTH
Well-known member
I feel for ya, the post-holiday reversal has yet to materialize, if we don't get some decent action today, I'm close to writing this swing-low off...
clester
Well-known member
The only real positive is that have have stopped the bleeding to a trickle. Basically flat here for a few days. Either it's a base before dropping or a real bottoming. I'm tempted to wait and see. If we can make it through this week I think we could start a bounce. Maybe the fiscal cliff will be priced in?
jkenjohnson
Active member
Looks like we may be headed for a 1% or more loss in the S fund today. I knew I should not have bought in before the election. It has been downhill ever since Obama won.
clester
Well-known member
I am go 50% G 50% I because I have confirmation of closes below the 200 dma. The C fund is getting close to an a oversold buy by way of RSI. If we get to 20 I'm buying back. I've noticed that once the RSI rebounds it retests it before taking off. So we may have a bounce soon. It may be next week though.
clester
Well-known member
Wish I had stayed in now. We are very close to a bottom IMO. Today feels like a panic wash out and the RSI for s&p is below 30 at about 27 as I write this. 20 is probably as bad as it will get before we at least get a bounce. That's my target. Not sure if I'll buy there or wait till we get back over 30 on a bounce. Im also expecting another selloff after the bounce to another lower low before we bottom. That may coincide with some fiscal cliff deal at the end of December. That is the pattern that I have discovered in my research.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Today will be as bad or worse than yesterday.
clester
Well-known member
Looks like it, so far. I don't know how low we need to got to get to a 20 on the RSI but it could be soon if we keep dropping this fast. I'm thinking by monday or Tuesday?
clester
Well-known member
The s&p is below 30 which is in buy territory but it can go to 20. So, I'm looking for a buy any day. S fund is still above it and it's more likely to drop under and go to 20. Efa or I fund looks much better on the chart. Still above its 200 dma. I may look to add there if a bounce starts.
Bquat
Well-known member
If negative volume is increasing and the red candle sticks are getting longer couldn't we just bounce to 50 before going for a lower low? I'm just wandering since we're below the 200 day and people may be selling peaks to get their money out before Dec 31st for this years tax base. What you think?
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