clester's Account Talk

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I know I should be scared, worried, etc with all the doom and gloom out there. But... I feel really good about the market, politics, and our future. Why?......it's just my gut feeling. My sub-conscience mind (sounds better if you remember the movie Dumbo)
 
Hind sight is always 20-20 but I try to learn from my mistakes. A couple weeks back when google reported and we dropped over 20 points on s&p ( a sell signal for my system) I decided to stay in. It has cost me. When will I learn. The system is there for a reason.

Thats history. Moving ahead I am reviewing my system for appropriate moves. Sentiment is very negative ( a buy signal) The RSI below 30 (ideally down to 20) is a buy but we are still above that by a little but another good down day will do it. Also, the 50 dma is above the 200 ( bull market) which means I should be at least 50% in stocks. If we don't get a confirmation of 2 or 3 trades below the 200 dma then I will stay in. We have had 1 on s&p. So, at this point we are too close to a buy on RSI indicator to sell now and haven't gotten confirmation of 200 dma. So, maybe I will have to endure some more pain. My resolve is to learn from my mistakes and just follow my system.

These big down days are hard on the psyche. But, I do feel in my gut we will be ok.
 
As it looks right now I will be making an IFT today. S fund has had several days closing below 200 dma and C fund is right at it and will probably follow. I fund is still in neutral area. In my system, I stay 50% in stocks minimum when we are in a bull market. So, my choice will be the I fund. F fund is in uptrend so instead of G I will go there. 50I and 50F as of this morning. If we rebound before noon and get above 200 dma I will stay the course. When RSI's get under 30 and preferably down to 20 I will get back in. We still have several percentage points down to get there.

I feel like we will rally soon. I hope it starts today. I want to stay in.
 
clester said:
As it looks right now I will be making an IFT today. S fund has had several days closing below 200 dma and C fund is right at it and will probably follow. I fund is still in neutral area. In my system, I stay 50% in stocks minimum when we are in a bull market. So, my choice will be the I fund. F fund is in uptrend so instead of G I will go there. 50I and 50F as of this morning. If we rebound before noon and get above 200 dma I will stay the course. When RSI's get under 30 and preferably down to 20 I will get back in. We still have several percentage points down to get there.

I feel like we will rally soon. I hope it starts today. I want to stay in.
Click to expand...

Today isn't looking to good right now.
 
clester said:
As it looks right now I will be making an IFT today. S fund has had several days closing below 200 dma and C fund is right at it and will probably follow. I fund is still in neutral area. In my system, I stay 50% in stocks minimum when we are in a bull market. So, my choice will be the I fund. F fund is in uptrend so instead of G I will go there. 50I and 50F as of this morning. If we rebound before noon and get above 200 dma I will stay the course. When RSI's get under 30 and preferably down to 20 I will get back in. We still have several percentage points down to get there.

I feel like we will rally soon. I hope it starts today. I want to stay in.
Click to expand...
I don't see the rally today but when the deal is struct with congress it should be a 6-8 % rally. I may have to look at risk to gain after the market drop this morning because I would like to be in for it too.
 
Bquat said:
I don't see the rally today but when the deal is struct with congress it should be a 6-8 % rally. I may have to look at risk to gain after the market drop this morning because I would like to be in for it too.
Click to expand...
Looks like we are getting it. At least we're back to even. Good to see some buyers coming in. Maybe I can stay 100% stocks.
 
clester said:
Looks like we are getting it. At least we're back to even. Good to see some buyers coming in. Maybe I can stay 100% stocks.
Click to expand...
I still need to see 1391 to trust this move and the 200 day has held twice as resistance. So I wait and see. We did have a short term double bottom but it's not working. Yet?;)
 
The only real positive is that have have stopped the bleeding to a trickle. Basically flat here for a few days. Either it's a base before dropping or a real bottoming. I'm tempted to wait and see. If we can make it through this week I think we could start a bounce. Maybe the fiscal cliff will be priced in?
 
clester said:
The only real positive is that have have stopped the bleeding to a trickle. Basically flat here for a few days. Either it's a base before dropping or a real bottoming. I'm tempted to wait and see. If we can make it through this week I think we could start a bounce. Maybe the fiscal cliff will be priced in?
Click to expand...

Looks like we may be headed for a 1% or more loss in the S fund today. I knew I should not have bought in before the election. It has been downhill ever since Obama won.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Looks like we may be headed for a 1% or more loss in the S fund today. I knew I should not have bought in before the election. It has been downhill ever since Obama won.
Click to expand...
I am go 50% G 50% I because I have confirmation of closes below the 200 dma. The C fund is getting close to an a oversold buy by way of RSI. If we get to 20 I'm buying back. I've noticed that once the RSI rebounds it retests it before taking off. So we may have a bounce soon. It may be next week though.
 
Wish I had stayed in now. We are very close to a bottom IMO. Today feels like a panic wash out and the RSI for s&p is below 30 at about 27 as I write this. 20 is probably as bad as it will get before we at least get a bounce. That's my target. Not sure if I'll buy there or wait till we get back over 30 on a bounce. Im also expecting another selloff after the bounce to another lower low before we bottom. That may coincide with some fiscal cliff deal at the end of December. That is the pattern that I have discovered in my research.
 
clester said:
Wish I had stayed in now. We are very close to a bottom IMO. Today feels like a panic wash out and the RSI for s&p is below 30 at about 27 as I write this. 20 is probably as bad as it will get before we at least get a bounce. That's my target. Not sure if I'll buy there or wait till we get back over 30 on a bounce. Im also expecting another selloff after the bounce to another lower low before we bottom. That may coincide with some fiscal cliff deal at the end of December. That is the pattern that I have discovered in my research.
Click to expand...

Today will be as bad or worse than yesterday.
 
The s&p is below 30 which is in buy territory but it can go to 20. So, I'm looking for a buy any day. S fund is still above it and it's more likely to drop under and go to 20. Efa or I fund looks much better on the chart. Still above its 200 dma. I may look to add there if a bounce starts.
 
clester said:
The s&p is below 30 which is in buy territory but it can go to 20. So, I'm looking for a buy any day. S fund is still above it and it's more likely to drop under and go to 20. Efa or I fund looks much better on the chart. Still above its 200 dma. I may look to add there if a bounce starts.
Click to expand...
If negative volume is increasing and the red candle sticks are getting longer couldn't we just bounce to 50 before going for a lower low? I'm just wandering since we're below the 200 day and people may be selling peaks to get their money out before Dec 31st for this years tax base. What you think?
 
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