clester's Account Talk

[clester]

New month, new quarter... Starting off with a rally it looks like. I'm still skeptical. My system is leaning more towards buying stocks but I have a couple issues. One is sentiment. My read is that it is still too high. Our tracker show a huge move into stocks and the talking heads seem to be very bullish to me. This is not a scientific analysis but what my sense of the way it is. My other indicators are mostly neutral. I would like a better reason to buy. We did bounce off the breakout point at 700 $(s fund) though.

October usually has a good buying opportunity. If my analysis is right we will again. I am content being patient for now.

 

[crommie]

New month, new quarter... Starting off with a rally it looks like. I'm still skeptical. I am content being patient for now.

I concur Clester. Too much unresolved in the EU this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see today's gains gone tomorrow. I too am looking for a better buy-in price, but probably not until next week at the earliest. Best of luck to you!

 

[clester]

I concur Clester. Too much unresolved in the EU this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see today's gains gone tomorrow. I too am looking for a better buy-in price, but probably not until next week at the earliest. Best of luck to you!

Same to you.

So far today I have noticed some more volatility with some pretty big swings. That makes me think something is happening that will resolve our direction. Probably down but I still am bullish overall and looking for a good entry point. That's hard to do but I am patient. Still feel like the talking heads are too positive and our tracker shows a lot of folks moving to stocks.

 

[clester]

After watching the action today and studying the charts I have to say I'm starting to get more positive vibes. The only real negative is the positive sentiment but the charts look pretty good and we have started building a base (or is it a bear flag?). I would prefer a test of lower levels but at the moment I'm feeling like I may make a move into stocks soon unless we have a big bounce before then. News from Europe is still the big thing. Who knows how that will turn out.

Anyway, I'll sleep on it and see how I feel tomorrow.

 

[clester]

After considering all the charts, sentiment, indicators etc. my system says I should be half in stocks. So, I will put 50% in S.

Reason are: S fund has come off the most, it is above 50 and 200 dma, 50 dma is above 200, its near lower trend line and in a basing formation (or bear flag?), sentiment seems too high to go all in, my indicators are neutral.

 

[jkenjohnson]

After considering all the charts, sentiment, indicators etc. my system says I should be half in stocks. So, I will put 50% in S.

Reason are: S fund has come off the most, it is above 50 and 200 dma, 50 dma is above 200, its near lower trend line and in a basing formation (or bear flag?), sentiment seems too high to go all in, my indicators are neutral.

Wonder if the dabate will affect the markets tomorrow? I know you don't trade on news - just thinking out loud. I'm still in 100%S.

 

[clester]

probably and Friday jobs will too. Next week begins earnings I think.

 

[jkenjohnson]

probably and Friday jobs will too. Next week begins earnings I think.

I get an error message every time I try to get on TSP.GOV. Have you tried to log on today? Anyone else havng the same problem?

 

[BP171]

I had the same problem when I only entered tsp.gov, on the other hand when I entered www.tsp.gov it works like a charm.

 

[Valkyrie]

I get an error message every time I try to get on TSP.GOV. Have you tried to log on today? Anyone else havng the same problem?

same here for the last couple of days.

had to use

https://www.tsp.gov/tsp/login.shtml

to get in, and sometimes that is slow.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I had the same problem when I only entered tsp.gov, on the other hand when I entered www.tsp.gov it works like a charm.

Thanks, that worked for me.

 

[jkenjohnson]

same here for the last couple of days.

had to use

https://www.tsp.gov/tsp/login.shtml

to get in, and sometimes that is slow.

Thanks.

 

[jkenjohnson]

probably and Friday jobs will too. Next week begins earnings I think.

Did you make the move?

 

[clester]

I did.

 

[clester]

My move to 50% S has worked well so far but the F fund hurt me as it will again today. I think we may have another few days of a rally. Maybe a week or so and I will prob get back out. Sentiment is way too high. RSI reading are still ok though.

 

[clester]

My move to 50% S has worked well so far but the F fund hurt me as it will again today. I think we may have another few days of a rally. Maybe a week or so and I will prob get back out. Sentiment is way too high. RSI reading are still ok though.

Its amazing how things work. Futures are down this morning and every talking head is negative. If futures are up they are positive.

Anyway, if we continue down we may still get that test of the 50 dma. S&p has a double top but S fund never got back up there. F fund has tested its breakout and needs to bounce here.

So, medium term charts are still bullish. The nice thing about a 50-50 allocation is that you can feel good if it moves either way.

 

[nnuut]

Bond Market is closed today.

 

[respro]

Bond Market is closed today.

So is TSP! My IFT on Sat. morning will have to wait until Tues night to go into effect. Two days of risk that I didn't want. TSP offices should be open every single day the market is! At least let our electronically entered IFTs go into effect that same night. Or better yet, How bout let our IFTs go into effect immediately.

 

[Old_School]

At least let our electronically entered IFTs go into effect that same night. Or better yet, How bout let our IFTs go into effect immediately.

From an organization that still uses FAXes for official business? Blasphemy!

 

[clester]

Bond Market is closed today.

The etf that our F fund tracks (AGG) did trade today.