clester's Account Talk

[sniper]

Looks like your right. At least starting out. Could be action opposite to yesterday though. Start up an fade through th day.

S fund is back in neutral area but C fund is over 70 on RSI which is a yellow flag. Sentiment is very positive also a warning. These are 2 things my system uses. These can stay this way for a while but the risk is still to the downside IMO. I would like to buy a dip. S fund looks the best for that.

I was starting to think sentiment was either neutral or negative. Seems like a lot of people on the tracker are in G fund, and for 3 days in a row, CNN was saying that the breakout was over and to protect your money haha.

But yes anything can happen today, but so far it's looking promising. I'll check the charts after the day is over to see what went on. cheers

 

[clester]

I was starting to think sentiment was either neutral or negative. Seems like a lot of people on the tracker are in G fund, and for 3 days in a row, CNN was saying that the breakout was over and to protect your money haha.

But yes anything can happen today, but so far it's looking promising. I'll check the charts after the day is over to see what went on. cheers

We could both be a little biased based on our positions I was talking mainly about guests on cnbc and Bloomberg

 

[clester]

Looks like your right. At least starting out. Could be action opposite to yesterday though. Start up an fade through th day.
.

Ther you go. Seems the market is back to its old ways. Start up or down and finish flat. I know it was options expiration but this has been happening a lot. That's not necessarily bad. Slows Down the volatility which is overall good for the market IMO. we still need the s&p to sell off some to create any buy the dip scenario for me. We are up a lot already for the month and RSI's are still high. Although s fund is looking like the best opportunity to me when the time comes.

 

[rcknfrewld]

For once CNN maybe right...this market is up nearly 20percent...how many years does the market gain that much

 

[sniper]

Ther you go. Seems the market is back to its old ways. Start up or down and finish flat. I know it was options expiration but this has been happening a lot. That's not necessarily bad. Slows Down the volatility which is overall good for the market IMO. we still need the s&p to sell off some to create any buy the dip scenario for me. We are up a lot already for the month and RSI's are still high. Although s fund is looking like the best opportunity to me when the time comes.

the intraday move was a little disappointing to me, but I'm still holding my position unless the bull flag fails and 849 doesn't hold. on the positive note, the downward move at EOD didn't prevent it from closing over the breakout line. my strategy leans on the aggressive side and is all about trying to catch breakout signals and jump out if it doesn't pan out. some hit, some don't, it's the nature of the market next week should be interesting

 

[clester]

RSI on $emw is at 70 and my price target was 720-730. Getting close to time to lighten up. RSI of 80 is a definite sell signal. 70 is red flag and gets me cautious. May sell some tomorrow if we're up.

S fund beat my target by a little. Too bad a got out a little early based on RSI. Now that we have hit a near term target we should head down soon to test the bottom of trend which is about the 50 dma. That would be a healthy market.
The sentiment seems to me to be bullish based on unlimited fed action. I know there are quantitative measures that say otherwise but sentiment is a hard thing to quantify. The money managers on tv say you need to get in, buy the dip. That's a red flag to me. I want to get in but I'm willing to be patient for now.

I think the s&p is doing well because of fed and how it supports big banks but other indices are pulling back nicely. S fund in particular as well as transports. I would like to see RSI's down to 30 for a solid entry point. I don't know if we'll get there for a while though. Perhaps F fund is a possibility in the mean time. I'm conservative though.

I think we will continue to have a slow pullback this week but what will October bring?

 

[Sensei]

S fund beat my target by a little. Too bad a got out a little early based on RSI. Now that we have hit a near term target we should head down soon to test the bottom of trend which is about the 50 dma. That would be a healthy market.

Looks like today you will likely have your pullback. Why do you think the 50 dma would be healthy? That would be a pretty steep drop. 20 not enough?

 

[clester]

Looks like today you will likely have your pullback. Why do you think the 50 dma would be healthy? That would be a pretty steep drop. 20 not enough?

its just a major moving average that I like. folks use different periods. with our limited trades it seems to work better for me. I use it in my system.

I have tried playing the market on short term trades and gotten burned more often than not. We would need a good drop to get there but it would be a pretty solid buy if it did. The lower trend line is in that area also.

 

[clester]

Markets are doing what they do a lot . Frustrate the most people. This sideways, nowhere markets doesn't make many happy. We need some action soon. It usually ends up with a big move. Lately it's been up but what will this time bring? The risk is now to the downside IMO. Seems to me a lot of good news is baked in now. It's a guessing game to play that anyway.

My target for a buy is around 700 (bottom of trend line) on S fund or $emw. Indicators on most markets have moved back to neutral except S&p which still looks overbought. All markets are in bull markets based on moving averages and sentiment is too positive IMO which is a mixed signal. f fund may breakout soon to new high so I will be looking for a possible move there.

So, bottom line is that I am probably out of the market for this week looking for a big move soon.

 

[clester]

S fund beat my target by a little. Too bad a got out a little early based on RSI. Now that we have hit a near term target we should head down soon to test the bottom of trend which is about the 50 dma. That would be a healthy market.
The sentiment seems to me to be bullish based on unlimited fed action. I know there are quantitative measures that say otherwise but sentiment is a hard thing to quantify. The money managers on tv say you need to get in, buy the dip. That's a red flag to me. I want to get in but I'm willing to be patient for now.

I think the s&p is doing well because of fed and how it supports big banks but other indices are pulling back nicely. S fund in particular as well as transports. I would like to see RSI's down to 30 for a solid entry point. I don't know if we'll get there for a while though. Perhaps F fund is a possibility in the mean time. I'm conservative though.

I think we will continue to have a slow pullback this week but what will October bring?

The 50 dma is now in sight. Hope it stops there. I'm watching the S fund for signs. The F fund may have a triple top breakout today and instill think it may be a decent place to wait out the downtrend.

 

[clester]

The 50 dma is now in sight. Hope it stops there. I'm watching the S fund for signs. The F fund may have a triple top breakout today and instill think it may be a decent place to wait out the downtrend.

Its getting interesting now. I don't buy on downtrends or try to catch the falling knife but I'm thinking a buying opportunity is coming. I will be patient though. If S fund hits the 50 dma I will buy once we get a bounce started. I could go to F for the last 2 days of the month...it broke out of a triple top today.

 

[clester]

Its getting interesting now. I don't buy on downtrends or try to catch the falling knife but I'm thinking a buying opportunity is coming. I will be patient though. If S fund hits the 50 dma I will buy once we get a bounce started. I could go to F for the last 2 days of the month...it broke out of a triple top today.

Not sure I'm buying the pop up in futures. A bounce is coming but not yet IMO. This may be a bounce on the way lower. I'm thinking we will get a buying opportunity next week. I would feel better if we tested the 50 dma. Since F fund is down today I may look there for the short term.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Not sure I'm buying the pop up in futures. A bounce is coming but not yet IMO. This may be a bounce on the way lower. I'm thinking we will get a buying opportunity next week. I would feel better if we tested the 50 dma. Since F fund is down today I may look there for the short term.

Looks like the POP may occurr today?

 

[clester]

Looks like the POP may occurr today?

Maybe, but I tend to think we will fade through the day. If we do bounce it may be a one or 2 day small bounce. We have a news based bounce this morning. A bigger move is a week or so away IMO.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Maybe, but I tend to think we will fade through the day. If we do bounce it may be a one or 2 day small bounce. We have a news based bounce this morning. A bigger move is a week or so away IMO.

Yeah, after seeing the jobs data, durable goods, etc. you are probably correct. I am actually back in right now.

 

[clester]

Yeah, after seeing the jobs data, durable goods, etc. you are probably correct. I am actually back in right now.

Don't know when you got in but I think a lot of folks were ready to pounce to buy the dip. This is where the market likes to frustrate people. Of course they ( and you ) could be right. I don't see a lot of downside but I have become very patient and willing to wait for a really good setup. That's what I think may happen next week.

 

[clester]

Don't know when you got in but I think a lot of folks were ready to pounce to buy the dip. This is where the market likes to frustrate people. Of course they ( and you ) could be right. I don't see a lot of downside but I have become very patient and willing to wait for a really good setup. That's what I think may happen next week.

Well, I was surprised by the magnitude of the pop yesterday. My move to F seems to be working so far. So, my thesis is still that we will go a little lower. Hopefully test the 50 dma nextvweek. Hoping for a move to stocks next week.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Don't know when you got in but I think a lot of folks were ready to pounce to buy the dip. This is where the market likes to frustrate people. Of course they ( and you ) could be right. I don't see a lot of downside but I have become very patient and willing to wait for a really good setup. That's what I think may happen next week.

I was up about 0.6% but it looks like that and more may disappear today. Consumer confidence is the only positive news today. I am hoping dip buyers may kick in (please).

 

[nnuut]

Buying DIPS is along the same line as Calling The Bottom, very risky! I wait for conformation of a turn around before I try it and still get burnt sometime.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Buying DIPS is along the same line as Calling The Bottom, very risky! I wait for conformation of a turn around before I try it and still get burnt sometime.

Agreed