clester's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

I would like to see a nice pull back since I got out two days too soon. I still have one IFT left if I feel like I have to get back in this month. Not unhappy with my YTD but it would be nice to pad it a little more before I take a one time withdrawl. Hoping for a good October and maybe a good November with the elections.

 

[clester]

I would like to see a nice pull back since I got out two days too soon. I still have one IFT left if I feel like I have to get back in this month. Not unhappy with my YTD but it would be nice to pad it a little more before I take a one time withdrawl. Hoping for a good October and maybe a good November with the elections.

Got a little pullback today. I would love to see the S fund $emw test 700 which is the breakout point. I think we could bounce there.

 

[clester]

Got a little pullback today. I would love to see the S fund $emw test 700 which is the breakout point. I think we could bounce there.

It looks like a bounce this morning. The RSI has gone below 70 again from just this one day minor pullback but is still very close. I guess we could bounce around it while the market climbs. I would have liked another day or two down to feel better about getting back in. I still think we go sideways to slightly down this week. We are at the top of the current trend lines.

Another week of big news events. Seems they just keep coming. I expect I will be watching from the sidelines.

 

[jkenjohnson]

It looks like a bounce this morning. The RSI has gone below 70 again from just this one day minor pullback but is still very close. I guess we could bounce around it while the market climbs. I would have liked another day or two down to feel better about getting back in. I still think we go sideways to slightly down this week. We are at the top of the current trend lines.

Another week of big news events. Seems they just keep coming. I expect I will be watching from the sidelines.

Too difficult to trade under these conditions.

 

[clester]

Too difficult to trade under these conditions.

Agreed. What does your system say?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Agreed. What does your system say?

On a buy, but I did not act on it. I'm in the G because of Europe and Bernanke. Don't want to take the risk of no QE3 or no Greece bailout.

 

[jkenjohnson]

On a buy, but I did not act on it. I'm in the G because of Europe and Bernanke. Don't want to take the risk of no QE3 or no Greece bailout.

Dam it. I now have the feeling that this week could turn out pretty nice and I'm sitting on the wrong side of the trade, like usual.

 

[clester]

Dam it. I now have the feeling that this week could turn out pretty nice and I'm sitting on the wrong side of the trade, like usual.

Well, I also have a bit of that feeling but that usually means we are near a pullback. When I get that "I'm getting left behind" feeling I have to go back to my indicators. They say we may have a little room to move up but not enough to take a tsp trade. It takes patience. My emotions say buy..buy..buy. The last time this happened to me we kept rallying and I gave in and bought. Of course, we had a pullback and I got out and then we went back up. Man that's frustrating. That's when I made myself follow my system.

For anyone reading this: don't follow me or anyone else. Do your own research and make your own decisions. It can be very frustrating to follow someone when there are bad days. It's your money. Don't trust it to anyone. I've done it. Btw, I've been in tsp for over 25 years and learned a lot of lessons. Most of them from the school of hard knocks. The biggest thing I learned was to trust myself and go opposite my emotions.

 

[clester]

Waiting on another news event...Boy this is getting old. If we can get a little sell off I would get back in. Maybe a little disappointment today from fed will do it. Who knows. Nothing to do today.

 

[Valkyrie]

read your thread everyday. thanks for the guidance

looks like dollar is going to reverse, bad for stocks good for the F fund where I'm parked right now.

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
After breaking support just above 81, the index has collapsed and is rapidly approaching a more important secondary support level just above 79. This is a logical spot to expect the dollar to bounce. And given the severity of the decline, it could be one heck of a bounce.

The blue lines on the chart show the Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands help measure the most probable trading range for a security. Any move outside of the bands is considered extreme, and is vulnerable to a reversal.

On Tuesday, the dollar closed below its lower Bollinger Band. It is now extremely oversold, and we'll have a "buy" signal on the buck when it closes back inside the bands. The last time that happened was back in late April... just before the Dollar Index rallied 6% in five weeks.

 

[clester]

read your thread everyday. thanks for the guidance

looks like dollar is going to reverse, bad for stocks good for the F fund where I'm parked right now.

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
After breaking support just above 81, the index has collapsed and is rapidly approaching a more important secondary support level just above 79. This is a logical spot to expect the dollar to bounce. And given the severity of the decline, it could be one heck of a bounce.

The blue lines on the chart show the Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands help measure the most probable trading range for a security. Any move outside of the bands is considered extreme, and is vulnerable to a reversal.

On Tuesday, the dollar closed below its lower Bollinger Band. It is now extremely oversold, and we'll have a "buy" signal on the buck when it closes back inside the bands. The last time that happened was back in late April... just before the Dollar Index rallied 6% in five weeks.

Thanks. Glad it's helpful. The dollar is a good barometer but I don't use it unless I'm in the I fund. I think I may move some into I fund next time. Also, bollinger bands are helpful but it's only one indicator to use. I've seen prices above it for 7 days before. It should be a warning though.

 

[MaStA]

$40 Billion / month QE was just announced...these people are idiots...$40 BILLION PER MONTH?! I'm obviously not in the know on finance stuff, but how does buying bonds boost an economy exactly? I guess the dollar will be worth less now...? I assume they just print this money?

 

[jkenjohnson]

$40 Billion / month QE was just announced...these people are idiots...$40 BILLION PER MONTH?! I'm obviously not in the know on finance stuff, but how does buying bonds boost an economy exactly? I guess the dollar will be worth less now...? I assume they just print this money?

They are building a house of cards that will fall and lead to further financial uncertainty for the US.

 

[clester]

They are building a house of cards that will fall and lead to further financial uncertainty for the US.

Here's what I think happened today. We were expecting QE but we got surprised by how much he is throwing at the problem. It was shock and awe IMO. All the tsp funds are topping out and perhaps it was a blow off top. I watch the RSI as a key indicator and we are in sell territory and almost to extreme levels. I can't buy here because the risk is too high now. If I was still in I would be selling. I felt a little Euphoria today as well which if you are a contrarian is also a negative.

I am still bullish long term but the extreme readings need to back off first. Since they're buying mortgages maybe my rate lock can be re- negotiated lower?

So, IMHO we may do ok tomorrow but watch out for next week. Do your own thing but keep your emotions out and look at your analysis.

 

[nasa1974]

Here's what I think happened today. We were expecting QE but we got surprised by how much he is throwing at the problem. It was shock and awe IMO. All the tsp funds are topping out and perhaps it was a blow off top. I watch the RSI as a key indicator and we are in sell territory and almost to extreme levels. I can't buy here because the risk is too high now. If I was still in I would be selling. I felt a little Euphoria today as well which if you are a contrarian is also a negative.

I am still bullish long term but the extreme readings need to back off first. Since they're buying mortgages maybe my rate lock can be re- negotiated lower?

So, IMHO we may do ok tomorrow but watch out for next week. Do your own thing but keep your emotions out and look at your analysis.

It is a little scary. I just got out one week too soon.

 

[clester]

Thanks. Glad it's helpful. The dollar is a good barometer but I don't use it unless I'm in the I fund. I think I may move some into I fund next time. Also, bollinger bands are helpful but it's only one indicator to use. I've seen prices above it for 7 days before. It should be a warning though.

The RSI is another good indicator but it can stay overbought for a while also. I feel like for the next few months now folks will be buying the dips. I just hope we get one. Got that left behind feeling this morning. Got to keep my emotions out of it though. Bernanke never disappoints the market and this time he blew out expectations. It's seems like a desperation move though a little. In any case, you can't fight the fed. Just be careful, it can come down just as fast.

 

[clester]

After some research, I noticed a few interesting items. The transports spiked up then sold off finishing only up .5% and the s fund was only up about 1%. I would have expected a much bigger rally on theses two. The big rally was in s&p.

I would expect some profit taking soon (maybe at the end of the day today) but I doubt there will be much shorting so maybe a 2 or 3 day pullback at some point and then back up. This morning is probably folks buying that didn't get a chance to buy yesterday. Also, all the talking heads are bullish stocks. There has been some questioning the QE but they still say you got to buy. That makes me cautious. I get the feeling the so called retail investors will start piling into stocks now.

 

[clester]

Wow, what an impressive rally. Up over 5% in 7 days ! 2.5% in 2 days!

Where it stops nobody knows.

 

[KneednDough]

It will stop when I buy back into the market.

 

[clester]

It will stop when I buy back into the market.

I know how you feel!