clester's Account Talk

[clester]

We are in prime position for a nice pullback. How much will be the question. Sentiment has gotten very positive and indicators are all extended. S fund or $emw has RSI over 78 which almost always means we will pull back. The only caution is that these can stay high longer than you think. The risk/reward heavily weighted in the risk side. Picking tops and bottoms is difficult if not impossible but IMO we are near a short term top.

For this week I think we may settle back into a sideways to down market. If folks start taking profits we could have a nice pullback this week.

Full disclosure, I am out of the market looking for a pull back to get back in. Dont follow anyone. Do your own analysis and trust yourself, just keep your emotions out.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

We are in prime position for a nice pullback. How much will be the question. Sentiment has gotten very positive and indicators are all extended. S fund or $emw has RSI over 78 which almost always means we will pull back. The only caution is that these can stay high longer than you think. The risk/reward heavily weighted in the risk side. Picking tops and bottoms is difficult if not impossible but IMO we are near a short term top.

For this week I think we may settle back into a sideways to down market. If folks start taking profits we could have a nice pullback this week.

Full disclosure, I am out of the market looking for a pull back to get back in. Dont follow anyone. Do your own analysis and trust yourself, just keep your emotions out.

Don't forget, this is options expiration week. The option houses holding calls and puts will manipulate prices so that they expire worthless or manipulate prices so that they make money... either way, its going to be whippy...

 

[clester]

We are in prime position for a nice pullback.

For this week I think we may settle back into a sideways to down market. If folks start taking profits we could have a nice pullback this week.

Lets see if we can get a little more selling. We are still over 70 on RSI.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Lets see if we can get a little more selling. We are still over 70 on RSI.

Let's get a lot more selling.

 

[clester]

Let's get a lot more selling.

S&P doesn't want to go Down it seems. I would like to see it test 1420. S fund has had a better pull back but I would like it to test the breakout about 700 ($emw). Efa would be interesting a little below 53. If the profit taking stops kick in we could get there

 

[clester]

Well, the quiet week seems to be playing out so far. I get the feeling as the market pauses we may get some more selling or profit taking as selling leads to more selling and stops kick in. Overall, things feel better but exhausted. I think we may drift lower. Nothing big. Although a good sell off would be good for the market for the long term.

 

[clester]

Some anecdotal evidence about housing. As you may remember, I am in the process of refinancing my house. My loan will be with my local credit union. The process went very smoothly and closing set for next week. So, I hear there's a backlog and banks don't want to lend but I don't see it around here. Houses are moving snd prices going up modestly. My house is up about 25% in value according to my appraisal in 8 years, so about a 3% a year average. This market has always been stable. We have a large company Eastman chemical who employees a lt of folks and they have been doing pretty well. We never really had the price inflation like las Vegas for example. So, we may be insulated but things look good here. Maybe the rest of the country will follow suit. I sure hope so.

 

[clester]

We still have way too many people bullish. Here and on tv. Tracker show lots of folks buying the dip. I think it's still a sucker play trying to get folks to go ahead and buy. We will sell off soon IMO. Talking heads keep saying we go up and buy. That's a red flag. The RSI indicators have come off a little but not enough. The longer we stay up here the more painful the sell off will be. Im happy waiting it out for now.

 

[clester]

We still have way too many people bullish. Here and on tv. Tracker show lots of folks buying the dip. I think it's still a sucker play trying to get folks to go ahead and buy. We will sell off soon IMO. Talking heads keep saying we go up and buy. That's a red flag. The RSI indicators have come off a little but not enough. The longer we stay up here the more painful the sell off will be. Im happy waiting it out for now.

A little side note. Apple.....

I have been a fan for a while. My excitement has waned recently. In fact I'm now almost anti Apple. I can't really put my finger on why I feel that way. Maybe it's the contrarian in me. Now that everyone has jumped on board I feel like jumping off. You used to hear a lot of negative comments when they put out new products. Now, everyone has only positives and glowing reports. Feels wrong. For one thing, can you be trend setting when everyone has one? I am up for a new phone next month. I am leaning toward the Samsung 3s galaxy. My son has a apple 4s and my wife has a 4. They like them. My other son has a galaxy. He also likes his. So, I guess the positive is that you will get a good phone in either case.

 

[weatherweenie]

A little side note. Apple.....

I have been a fan for a while. My excitement has waned recently. In fact I'm now almost anti Apple. I can't really put my finger on why I feel that way. Maybe it's the contrarian in me. Now that everyone has jumped on board I feel like jumping off. You used to hear a lot of negative comments when they put out new products. Now, everyone has only positives and glowing reports. Feels wrong. For one thing, can you be trend setting when
everyone has one? I am up for a new phone next month. I am leaning toward the Samsung 3s galaxy. My son has a apple 4s and my wife has a 4. They like them. My other son has a galaxy. He also likes his. So, I guess the positive is that you will get a good phone in either case.

Did you see the $1500 price target one analyst put on Apple? Granted, it was 10-12 years down the road.

I have a Galaxy II and I like that it has a bigger display. My brother has a Galaxy III S and loves it.

 

[JamesE]

I'm an Android fan all the way, maybe this will help...

Maximum PC | 10 Things Android Does Better Than iPhone OS

Btw, I do agree with your market thoughts in that there will be some give back before long. Its like the market does its own thing and the followers can only guess about what's next. I'm actually very very close to just lettin' it all ride because over the last two years of "guessing" and following market experts, I'm probably down 15%.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Did you see the $1500 price target one analyst put on Apple? Granted, it was 10-12 years down the road.

I have a Galaxy II and I like that it has a bigger display. My brother has a Galaxy III S and loves it.

AAPL would grow faster if they would split. Few retail investors will buy a $700 stock...

 

[MaStA]

I decided to never buy an Apple product again after them unleashing lawsuits against the world. I have an iPhone 4, but I am eagerly awaiting the release of new phones next month with android and windows phone. I will make my choice then. I love the Galaxy S III, but I want to wait and see if anything new comes out that I may want instead.

 

[clester]

I decided to never buy an Apple product again after them unleashing lawsuits against the world. I have an iPhone 4, but I am eagerly awaiting the release of new phones next month with android and windows phone. I will make my choice then. I love the Galaxy S III, but I want to wait and see if anything new comes out that I may want instead.

I didn't like that either although they should protect their copyrights.

 

[MaStA]

I didn't like that either although they should protect their copyrights.

Our patent system is flawed. If auto makers patented things like Apple did we would be driving around in pink circular automobiles. What Apple does kills competition and I don't care for it much.

 

[Aitrus]

Our patent system is flawed. If auto makers patented things like Apple did we would be driving around in pink circular automobiles. What Apple does kills competition and I don't care for it much.

I seem to remember hearing the same things about Microsoft for many years, and those saying it went to Apple or Linux for the same reasons.

To me, if it works then I'll use it. The only reason Apple stuff isn't subject to all the viruses and the like that Microsoft users have to suffer through is that nobody has taken the time to focus on it. Back in the day the first virus attacked Apple computers. When Microsoft grew big, hackers had to decide where to focus their efforts - the paltry few using Apple, or the majority using Windows. Seemed like a simple answer. Now the trend is starting to reverse. I would be very surprised if we didn't see Apple and Android stuff getting the same level of attention by hackers that Microsoft users have had the dubious pleasure of experiencing.

For the record, I don't have an iPhone, Android, Galaxy, etc. I have an old Samsung flip-phone that I fuel for $100 worth of minutes a year. I also have an ITouch, but that's for the MP3 player and a few Chess and Stock Market apps. I've got a Kindle Fire, but I got it when it was on sale, and I use it for books and a few games and light 'net surfing when I'm traveling.

 

[clester]

Kind of odd action with small caps and transports selling off much more than s&p. I think big banks are holding I up. At some it will start to follow though. I'm looking at 52 on Efa and 700 on $emw ( I and S funds) for a possible entry. Can't get excited about buying yet.

 

[sniper]

Kind of odd action with small caps and transports selling off much more than s&p. I think big banks are holding I up. At some it will start to follow though. I'm looking at 52 on Efa and 700 on $emw ( I and S funds) for a possible entry. Can't get excited about buying yet.

What I did like about today's action is the Russell 2000 bounced nicely off that 849 resistance and held above it, I think we're going back up.

 

[clester]

What I did like about today's action is the Russell 2000 bounced nicely off that 849 resistance and held above it, I think we're going back up.

Could be. I just doesn't feel like we have come off enough yet. I don't really follow the russell 2000 since we have $emw or Dwcpf that tracks our s fund.

 

[clester]

What I did like about today's action is the Russell 2000 bounced nicely off that 849 resistance and held above it, I think we're going back up.

Looks like your right. At least starting out. Could be action opposite to yesterday though. Start up an fade through th day.

S fund is back in neutral area but C fund is over 70 on RSI which is a yellow flag. Sentiment is very positive also a warning. These are 2 things my system uses. These can stay this way for a while but the risk is still to the downside IMO. I would like to buy a dip. S fund looks the best for that.