clester
Well-known member
Looks like we are in a short term down trend. Glad the system got me out now. We need to break out of this down trend channel.
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
Looks like we may test the multi year breakout top of 1576 (intraday) or 1564 (closing) or perhaps just the 50 dma. There is not much resistance until there. But what we need is to break this downtrend. If this selling continues it could be the sell off everyone has been waiting for. I was thinking July.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Well played is all I can say. You have nailed it from the beginning.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
You have been calling it about as accurately as possible.
When are you starting your premium service? ;-)
clester
Well-known member
Hmmm.
clester
Well-known member
Thanks.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future returns
or whatever the saying is. I feel like I have it wrong.
MaStA
Member
Just wanted to say I'm also here listening to what you have to say. I check in every day on multiple occasions to see what your thoughts are. I am still holding my TZA that I bought on May 3rd and May 14th. I am still down a little bit, but I am hoping that we will get this pullback so I can at least break even or make a few bucks.
czapor1967
Member
shhhhhhh, don't give him any ideas! HA! :laugh:
clester
Well-known member
I'm thinking 1600 as the first target for S&P. that is a good support area. The real test will be 1576 area where we broke out should we get there. It could go either way this week. I'm intently watching for some signal to get back in like breaking the current short term downtrend. I'll be watching the RSI too for a oversold signal. We're a long way from that though.
clester
Well-known member
What's happening now is that since no one is buying the dip everyone starts running for the exit which can exacerbate the sell off. The good news is that flushing out the market will create a good buying opportunity sooner than a slow drift lower. The S fund is near its 50 dma and the long term breakout point coinciding with S&P 1576 but S&P is still well above 1576. That is a good support. If that breaks...
Days like today demonstrate why the TSP plan is a bad one. If you exit and try to avoid losses then you arn't able to get back in when things bottom unless you still have 2 IFT's for the month. Also, there are no funds that let you short your position. It looks like the Board would relize that some changes should be made immediately if they really are looking out for your best interest. For me I'll be withdrawing my money when I reach retirement.
Birchtree
Well-known member
It wasn't that long ago (3-9-09) when the C fund was at $7.86 and the S fund was at $9.06 and the I fund was at $10.29. Look where prices are now - just holding long you would have scored. You have the advantage of dollar cost averaging and prices are only going higher, probably much higher. Your retirement will bloom if you remain disciplined. I plan to only take my required minimum distributions and let the rest grow. You can see the advantages of owning multi-thousand share positions - the more the better.
This is true with the current restrictions ;however, I doubled my account when we had an unlimited number of IFT's and I have done a terrible job trying to time this market since we have been restricted. I have even tried some services and haven't done that well. So I think maybe you're approach might be what I need. Thanks
coolhand
Well-known member
Yes, those restrictions largely force a buy and hold game plan in at least the intermediate term and perhaps longer for many of us. It's a much different strategy than the short term trading we were able to do a few years back. Like you, I did much better in those days.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Where are the dip buyers? Everbody in panic mode?
Cactus
Well-known member
That's because they know Ben is holding off the QE a few days so Congress can borrow more from our G Fund. They can't take it if it aint in there.
jkenjohnson
Active member
That's because they know Ben is holding off the QE a few days so Congress can borrow more from our G Fund. They can't take it if it aint in there.
It disappoints me to think that you might be right. This country is in trouble.
clester
Well-known member
Too many folks are long and arguing that we should hold or buy. This is the reverse of how it was in the midst of the rally. Especially the talking heads on cnbc.
clester
Well-known member
I just realized. Another down Wednesday (3 in a row?) and Tuesdays up streak has broken. Is there some manning there?
Anyway, C and S funds are almost to their 50 dma which will provide some support. If we do bounce from here it may be worth a shot but the 50 dma is usually broken below before a bounce. I don't buy on down trends unless I see signs it's turning around. An up day today wouldn't be enough especially if its only at noon. Ideally, I would like to see the RSI get down to 30 and then a couple up days. That's conservative but that's my system.
Anyway, C and S funds are almost to their 50 dma which will provide some support. If we do bounce from here it may be worth a shot but the 50 dma is usually broken below before a bounce. I don't buy on down trends unless I see signs it's turning around. An up day today wouldn't be enough especially if its only at noon. Ideally, I would like to see the RSI get down to 30 and then a couple up days. That's conservative but that's my system.
