clester's Account Talk

[clester]

We have a nice base building. The problem is deciding which way it will break from the base. On the downside you have a good level to put a sell stop loss target. Mine is about 837 on $emw which tracks the S fund. I am still bullish thinking we will rally though early July. The sentiment survey looks neutral at this point but the brought up the USA today headline about the bull market which could be a warning flag. Things don't appear overly bullish to me. So, at this point I have no reason to sell but watching my sell stop.

 

[clester]

We have a nice base building. The problem is deciding which way it will break from the base. On the downside you have a good level to put a sell stop loss target. Mine is about 837 on $emw which tracks the S fund. I am still bullish thinking we will rally though early July. The sentiment survey looks neutral at this point but the brought up the USA today headline about the bull market which could be a warning flag. Things don't appear overly bullish to me. So, at this point I have no reason to sell but watching my sell stop.

Just looking at the tracker. Everyone in the top 50 list is in stocks. I counted 5 in the top 100 in bonds. That's a very bullish crowd. But our sentiment survey is about 50-50. So, which is right? I'm not really sure how to view sentiment right now. It feels sorta neutral but I haven't seen the bears out on tv much lately.

 

[Birchtree]

Chicago May PMI just exploded to 58.7 vs 49.0 for April. The bull has a good feel to it.

 

[clester]

Chicago May PMI just exploded to 58.7 vs 49.0 for April. The bull has a good feel to it.

The economy definitely is improving. I still say its hard to play news events because you have to out guess the market reaction. The technicals I watch still look good. The basing is continuing and perhaps next week we will find out which way it will resolve..up or down. I think up. Lots of negative talk about June's historical returns. They talked that up in May and we know how that turned out. So all the negative talk is fuel for the fire IMO. I think we go up in June. Of course, we will have a correction sometime. I'm thinking it could come in July.

 

[jkenjohnson]

The economy definitely is improving. I still say its hard to play news events because you have to out guess the market reaction. The technicals I watch still look good. The basing is continuing and perhaps next week we will find out which way it will resolve..up or down. I think up. Lots of negative talk about June's historical returns. They talked that up in May and we know how that turned out. So all the negative talk is fuel for the fire IMO. I think we go up in June. Of course, we will have a correction sometime. I'm thinking it could come in July.

I finally capitulated and joined you in the S fund COB. The markets will tank for sure now.

 

[clester]

I finally capitulated and joined you in the S fund COB. The markets will tank for sure now.

Looks like they did. Hope you picked the bottom. One of my rule is to sell when S&p drops over 20 points. This seemed a little odd today so im not sure if i should follow it. But right now I it looks like I will sell 50% monday.

 

[clester]

Looks like they did. Hope you picked the bottom. One of my rule is to sell when S&p drops over 20 points. This seemed a little odd today so im not sure if i should follow it. But right now I it looks like I will sell 50% monday.

I'm on the fence about selling. I've heard that a MSCI fund rebalanced Friday and was the reason for the end of the day selloff. I am above the sell stop I have been watching. I'm leaning on letting this play out another day but let's see what's going on at noon.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I'm on the fence about selling. I've heard that a MSCI fund rebalanced Friday and was the reason for the end of the day selloff. I am above the sell stop I have been watching. I'm leaning on letting this play out another day but let's see what's going on at noon.

RSI is around 50 I think, well below the 70 mark.

 

[clester]

RSI is around 50 I think, well below the 70 mark.

Stop loss target has been breached along with the 20+ point drop rule. Going 50G 50S

 

[bmneveu]

I'm on the fence about selling. I've heard that a MSCI fund rebalanced Friday and was the reason for the end of the day selloff. I am above the sell stop I have been watching. I'm leaning on letting this play out another day but let's see what's going on at noon.

Interesting. Rebalancing to what though, to make that kind of move (T-notes maybe? their yields have been shooting up). I could understand the market reacting like that if the volume/liquidity was low, but at the end of the day is when all the volume usually ramps up, right?

 

[clester]

Stop loss target has been breached along with the 20+ point drop rule. Going 50G 50S

Correction. 100% G

I decided to go 100% because I wanted the flexibility to get back in and if we continue down and I then go 100% I would have no moves left to get back in. Also, the 20+ point decline on S&P rule dictates it.

 

[clester]

Correction. 100% G

I decided to go 100% because I wanted the flexibility to get back in and if we continue down and I then go 100% I would have no moves left to get back in. Also, the 20+ point decline on S&P rule dictates it.

Just my thoughts. I don't think this sell off will last long. In fact it may rebound anytime, maybe this afternoon. I really didn't want to sell today but I'm following my system. That's why I have a system...right?

 

[clester]

Just my thoughts. I don't think this sell off will last long. In fact it may rebound anytime, maybe this afternoon. I really didn't want to sell today but I'm following my system. That's why I have a system...right?

I guess it was this afternoon. Damn that deadline!

 

[jkenjohnson]

I guess it was this afternoon. Damn that deadline!

You still have 1 IFT.

 

[JamesE]

I guess it was this afternoon. Damn that deadline!

When I sold my 60% S for the G last Friday the market was positive at the dealine. Come 4 o'clock,,,, negative 1%, that was a nice little kick in the nads.

Anyhoo, I'm still leary of the recent swings. After all, it is summer and when the wild swings start it usually means the account takes a hit.

 

[clester]

When I sold my 60% S for the G last Friday the market was positive at the dealine. Come 4 o'clock,,,, negative 1%, that was a nice little kick in the nads.

Anyhoo, I'm still leary of the recent swings. After all, it is summer and when the wild swings start it usually means the account takes a hit.

I guess I should be happy I didn't lose 1% today as it was at noon. The 20 point rule did come into play which implies volatility.

 

[Khotso]

I guess I should be happy I didn't lose 1% today as it was at noon. The 20 point rule did come into play which implies volatility.

So did you decide to hang tight with S afterall Clester? Or is your signature line waiting to be updated?

 

[imike023]

So did you decide to hang tight with S afterall Clester? Or is your signature line waiting to be updated?

[TABLE="width: 90%"]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #336699, colspan: 12, align: left"] clester -- [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: text"]
[TD="width: 15%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] Allocation date/time[/TD]
[TD="width: 15%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] IFT date[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] L2050[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] L2040[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] L2030[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] L2020[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] Income[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 15%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]2013-06-03 11:32:14[/TD]
[TD="width: 15%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]2013-06-03[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]100[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Looks like he went to the G fund today Khotso.

 

[clester]

[TABLE="width: 90%"]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #336699, colspan: 12, align: left"] clester -- [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: text"]
[TD="width: 15%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] Allocation date/time[/TD]
[TD="width: 15%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] IFT date[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] L2050[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] L2040[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] L2030[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] L2020[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] Income[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 15%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]2013-06-03 11:32:14[/TD]
[TD="width: 15%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]2013-06-03[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]100[/TD]
[TD="width: 7%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Looks like he went to the G fund today Khotso.

Sorry about that. Fixed my signature line. I'm looking for an entry point again.

 

[clester]

Sorry about that. Fixed my signature line. I'm looking for an entry point again.

I may end up waiting until Friday to see the Market reaction to the jobs report to re-enter. We are in a kinda no mans land right here. No reason to buy or sell until we get another signal. On the downside, A test if the 50 dma would be nice. On the upside I would probably need a new high.