clester's Account Talk

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clester said:
Well, my timing was not so bad this time. We are approaching the previous high on S fund and I expect a pause there for a day or so but not worth trying a trade out and back in.
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We got pretty close to the previous high and backed off yesterday and today futures are down. This may be the pause before we bust through. Still watching the 50 dma though.
 
clester said:
We got pretty close to the previous high and backed off yesterday and today futures are down. This may be the pause before we bust through. Still watching the 50 dma though.
Click to expand...

You say "dma" which I am assuming you mean daily moving average, but are you using a simple or exponential MA on your daily chart?
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
You say "dma" which I am assuming you mean daily moving average, but are you using a simple or exponential MA on your daily chart?
Click to expand...
yeah, the 50 day moving average. I also like the 200 day moving average. Some use shorter ones like the 20 dma.

It really anyone's preference, but I use the simple moving average. I know many like the exponential moving average.
 
clester said:
yeah, the 50 day moving average. I also like the 200 day moving average. Some use shorter ones like the 20 dma.

It really anyone's preference, but I use the simple moving average. I know many like the exponential moving average.
Click to expand...

I have a preference for the SMA myself, I don't need the faster reaction times from an EMA since I focus on the 50/200.
 
clester said:
yeah, the 50 day moving average. I also like the 200 day moving average. Some use shorter ones like the 20 dma.

It really anyone's preference, but I use the simple moving average. I know many like the exponential moving average.
Click to expand...

True, just wasn't sure what one you were using. Tom and others have an affinity for EMA, I like the SMA.
 
We are coming up on the sell in May time and it's do or die on my thesis that this year will be different. The charts look eerily close to last years.
 
clester said:
We are coming up on the sell in May time and it's do or die on my thesis that this year will be different. The charts look eerily close to last years.
Click to expand...

Yep, I've been spaming that for a while now, the last 3 years May has been miserable.
 
Alright, this is a make or break week for my thesis that this May will be different.

We should make it to new highs this week. The first part of May is the tell. In the past if we started off down we stayed down. The futures are up this morning. Let's see if we can finish that way.

The chart set up looks good and there are no warning signs in my system. Let's keep it that way.
 
clester said:
Alright, this is a make or break week for my thesis that this May will be different.

We should make it to new highs this week. The first part of May is the tell. In the past if we started off down we stayed down. The futures are up this morning. Let's see if we can finish that way.

The chart set up looks good and there are no warning signs in my system. Let's keep it that way.
Click to expand...

Last year the first two trading days of May were good days. Then the bottom fell out and the month stunk.
 
nasa1974 said:
Last year the first two trading days of May were good days. Then the bottom fell out and the month stunk.
Click to expand...

So, if that holds true again jobs Friday will be very important since its May 3. My crystal ball says we will rally through June.
 
clester said:
We are a little over 1% away from new highs on all stock funds. I bet we get to the old high and pause a day or 2 and then bust through. Since I'm in S fund I'm watchings it's 50 dma for a sell signal or stop loss. If my thesis holds true, we will bust through 1600 on S&P. I don't have an upside target but I'll be watching the RSI for an overbought condition. I have a bias to be in through June.
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Seems things are working out as planned so far. :)

That crystal ball is hitting on all 8 cylinders.

The s fund via $emw needs to break above 821 for a clear break out.
 
clester said:
Seems things are working out as planned so far. :)

That crystal ball is hitting on all 8 cylinders.

The s fund via $emw needs to break above 821 for a clear break out.
Click to expand...
Not quite a clear breakout yesterday but a good day. Perhaps today will be the day. The S fund has a nice "w" formation and the C fund has a cup and handle type setup. We need to break out to continue the rally. If we fail up here it would be the sell in May phenomenon. I am watching the 50 dma as my sell stop in case that happens. All stock funds are in solid bull territory. Above both the 50 and 200 dma and in uptrend. You have to have a bullish bias IMO.

My thesis again is that this year will be different and we rally through June or July and then have a nice correction. But I will change my mind should the facts turn against me.
 
Lots of folks on the tracker selling today because of the sell in May phenom. That's a mistake IMO. It sorta like the sentiment survey. 8ts a buy signal. 8 het the survey will be on a buy because everyone thinks next week will be bad.
 
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