clester's Account Talk

[clester]

Top holdings in S fund. I dont like some of these. Maybe I should be out of S fund.......


Company Symbol % Assets
Facebook, Inc. FB 1.05
Las Vegas Sands Corp. Common St LVS 0.73
General Motors Company Common S GM 0.66
Air Methods Corporation AIRM 0.56
General Growth Properties, Inc. GGP 0.53
Sirius XM Radio Inc. SIRI 0.49
LinkedIn Corporation Class A Co LNKD 0.48
Annaly Capital Management Inc C NLY 0.46
Delta Air Lines, Inc. Common St DAL 0.40
Liberty Media Corporation LMCA 0.40

 

[clester]

Top holdings in S fund. I dont like some of these. Maybe I should be out of S fund.......


Company Symbol % Assets
Facebook, Inc. FB 1.05
Las Vegas Sands Corp. Common St LVS 0.73
General Motors Company Common S GM 0.66
Air Methods Corporation AIRM 0.56
General Growth Properties, Inc. GGP 0.53
Sirius XM Radio Inc. SIRI 0.49
LinkedIn Corporation Class A Co LNKD 0.48
Annaly Capital Management Inc C NLY 0.46
Delta Air Lines, Inc. Common St DAL 0.40
Liberty Media Corporation LMCA 0.40

Although the sectors look ok to me.

Sector Weightings (%) *
Sector * WXSP
Basic Materials
*
5.33
Consumer Cyclical
*
15.14
Financial Services
*
12.55
Realestate
*
10.92
Consumer Defensive
*
3.58
Healthcare
*
9.20
Utilities
*
3.74
Communication Services
*
2.29
Energy
*
5.18
Industrials
*
17.52
Technology
*
14.55

 

[clester]

Unfortunately, a 2% drop is a sell for my system . S fund is down 2% at noon so, I sold 50% today.

But, we are still in a bull market.

 

[clester]

Unfortunately, a 2% drop is a sell for my system . S fund is down 2% at noon so, I sold 50% today.

But, we are still in a bull market.

oops. Well I apparently missed the deadline so I'm still in. I just happened to look at the market at 11:55 am and tried to bail. I have to hope for dip buyers now.

 

[clester]

oops. Well I apparently missed the deadline so I'm still in. I just happened to look at the market at 11:55 am and tried to bail. I have to hope for dip buyers now.

On the plus side, we are right at the 50 dma. That was my sell stop. So, we may end up holding there.

 

[clester]

oops. Well I apparently missed the deadline so I'm still in. I just happened to look at the market at 11:55 am and tried to bail. I have to hope for dip buyers now.

from bad to worse. A terrorist event on top of a huge sell off. Reminds me of 9-11. I remember it well.

 

[clester]

Well, yesterday was something, huh. In many ways. As for the stock market, It felt wierd. I didn't see any reason for the huge sell off except that some big funds had to raise cash to cover their gold positions that were tanking. I never really felt any panic myself. I'm not sure why.

I have to make a decision today. One one hand, I have a sell signal(S fund) with the big one day drop and breech of the 50 dma. On the other hand, today we are bouncing at the open and may be able to regain the 50 dma, we are in a bull jarket and I still expect a good spring.

 

[craigerv]

I felt strange yesterday too. I think its just that I'm trusting my system more so that when we have a drop like yesterday I'm not freaking out about it. I'm getting close to a sell signal myself but I'm not quite there yet. I think by the end of the week or next I'll probably have a more clear direction.

 

[clester]

After having some time to get over the shock of everything I think I'm finally thinking clearly. I have a rule in my system that if we have a sell off of more than 20 s&p points then it's an automatic sell. The 20 points is not hard and fast and should probably be a little higher but the point is that it's a marker that something isn't right and of higher volatility. Generally, you don't get 1 big down day and an immediate bounce. I made this rule after enduring many big drops waiting for a bounce.

So, I am following the rule. I really don't expect this to last long and I'll be looking for a buying opportunity. We tested the 50 dma from underneath. It we fail we we drop.

 

[clester]

After having some time to get over the shock of everything I think I'm finally thinking clearly. I have a rule in my system that if we have a sell off of more than 20 s&p points then it's an automatic sell. The 20 points is not hard and fast and should probably be a little higher but the point is that it's a marker that something isn't right and of higher volatility. Generally, you don't get 1 big down day and an immediate bounce. I made this rule after enduring many big drops waiting for a bounce.

So, I am following the rule. I really don't expect this to last long and I'll be looking for a buying opportunity. We tested the 50 dma from underneath. It we fail we we drop.

We are back above the 50dma and now a buy is issued because we also had over 20 point positive day. Very volatile. Guess I wasted a trade but volatility usually comes at tops and bottoms.

I may not jump immediately back in because we are so close to the top. I'll have to do some more analysis. Luckily my trade yesterday didn't take. Better lucky than good as the say.

 

[MrBowl]

I can't blame you. The shaky market can mean that the overall trend is changing. Thanks for posting your thoughts.

 

[clester]

I can't blame you. The shaky market can mean that the overall trend is changing. Thanks for posting your thoughts.

Your welcome.

An interesting tidbit of trivia. There are only 11 members above the C fund on the tracker. To me this is why you should have a bias to be in stocks during a bull market. So far this year buy and hold is a winning strategy. The trick is to know "when to foldem' "

 

[clester]

We are back above the 50dma and now a buy is issued because we also had over 20 point positive day. Very volatile. Guess I wasted a trade but volatility usually comes at tops and bottoms.

I may not jump immediately back in because we are so close to the top. I'll have to do some more analysis. Luckily my trade yesterday didn't take. Better lucky than good as the say.

Well, it seems I made a good move getting out. If I was in I would be careful here. Watch the previous support levels and make an exit plan. Don't just hang on because you are stubborn. You need a plan. Caution though, don't be emotional. Make a decision based on facts.

That said, I'm looking for a good buying opportunity. Below the 50 dma is caution zone. If I buy below the 50dma it will be 50% only. I only go 100% in when we are above the 50 dma and it's above the 200dma.

 

[clester]

Well, it seems I made a good move getting out. If I was in I would be careful here. Watch the previous support levels and make an exit plan. Don't just hang on because you are stubborn. You need a plan. Caution though, don't be emotional. Make a decision based on facts.

That said, I'm looking for a good buying opportunity. Below the 50 dma is caution zone. If I buy below the 50dma it will be 50% only. I only go 100% in when we are above the 50 dma and it's above the 200dma.

Also, this is why my system sells when we have such big down moves. I've been caught in this type of scenario too many times and got burned.

 

[jpcavin]

Also, this is why my system sells when we have such big down moves. I've been caught in this type of scenario too many times and got burned.

Remember 2011 when the market was going down and all the dip buyers started jumping in in droves and the market kept tanking? That was a nightmare. I hope this is not a repeat.

 

[MrBowl]

Well, it seems I made a good move getting out. If I was in I would be careful here. Watch the previous support levels and make an exit plan. Don't just hang on because you are stubborn. You need a plan. Caution though, don't be emotional. Make a decision based on facts.

That said, I'm looking for a good buying opportunity. Below the 50 dma is caution zone. If I buy below the 50dma it will be 50% only. I only go 100% in when we are above the 50 dma and it's above the 200dma.

Absolutely, on all points. You made an excellent decision on your exit.

 

[ravensfan]

Absolutely, on all points. You made an excellent decision on your exit.

It looks like we are still in the up one day and down the next pattern, so I am going to hang in until at least next week. I was 100% S until 11 Apr when I changed to 50%G, 25% C and 25% S. That has softened the losses somewhat and hey the futures are up again this evening, so tomorrow should be an up day. But you are right, it is time to think about that exit plan...

 

[clester]

It looks like we are still in the up one day and down the next pattern, so I am going to hang in until at least next week. I was 100% S until 11 Apr when I changed to 50%G, 25% C and 25% S. That has softened the losses somewhat and hey the futures are up again this evening, so tomorrow should be an up day. But you are right, it is time to think about that exit plan...

The C fund tested and bounced off the 50 dma and the I fund is right at it. It's really just the S fund that broke the 50dma. It's is always more volatile. So, C fund still looks OK but could follow. I fund doesn't look to bad either but it's testing it's 50dma.

 

[clester]

We have a mixed picture this morning. The C fund held its 50 dma but all the stock fund have a pattern now of lower lows and lower highs. We need that to change to get me enticed to get back in. Volatility last week was high. 2 days had over 20 point s&p moves. That's 1 sell signal followed by a buy signal. Also, the s&p looks like it could be starting a head and shoulders pattern(bearish).

So, I'm really watching the markets for a break of the lower high, lower low pattern.

 

[clester]

The market seems to be acting better the last few days. We've had some intraday volatility but it seems to be calming down which is a good sign for my system. I'm looking at about 806 on s fund or $emw for a buy signal. That would get back over the 50dma and take out the last high on April 16. The C fund bounced nicely off its 50 dma but needs to take out its last high from April 16 to counter the downtrend. I fund doesn't seem to have any good direction just sideways.