clester's Account Talk

[clester]

This sideways movement is just as good as a pullback. Some would say its trouble. The rally is losing steam. Flat tops bring market drops etc.

All that could be true or it could be a high base as some others would call it. The bottom line is that we are consolidating here. Catching our breath. My crystal ball says we continue up but I have an exit plan like everyone should.

A lot of bears have come out recently. That's good. More fuel for the fire. Sentiment isn't too high yet. There are no sell signals with my system yet.

Can we just get this new high out of the way!!!

 

[JTH]

Can we just get this new high out of the way!!!

The fun part is that this last week typically has an end of quarter sell-off. But hey, we did get the highest close today!

 

[clester]

The fun part is that this last week typically has an end of quarter sell-off. But hey, we did get the highest close today!

Holiday this week too. It getting old...this sideways movement. Maybe a lot of others think so too and sell. The good part is we aren't selling off. It will just take one good breakout day to get us started. Up I hope.

 

[clester]

Holiday this week too. It getting old...this sideways movement. Maybe a lot of others think so too and sell. The good part is we aren't selling off. It will just take one good breakout day to get us started. Up I hope.

Prices to watch. 797 on $emw (S fund) and 1540 on spx(C fund) which are sell points for me. 1576 on Spx for the breakout ( or 1565 closing)

 

[clester]

Holiday this week too. It getting old...this sideways movement. Maybe a lot of others think so too and sell. The good part is we aren't selling off. It will just take one good breakout day to get us started. Up I hope.

Can we finally get this new high? Today is the last trading day of the month. We couldn't het it last week but maybe this week. Looking for a good April too.

 

[clester]

Can we finally get this new high? Today is the last trading day of the month. We couldn't het it last week but maybe this week. Looking for a good April too.

Finally, got that out of the way. Now what?

I've got to be honest, I'm getting nervous just because I've done so well this year and I'm afraid of losing it. But, I don't have any sell signals on my system. We could get to overbought soon but we have some room still. We really need to take out 1576 (the intraday all-time high) to feel confident of the breakout. If we do, that will become support and I'll move my stops up. Right now my sell stops are still the same 1540 for S&P and 797 for $emw (S fund).

I'm still hearing a lot of the pros on TV saying we will get a sell off soon, maybe next week. They are Bearish. But they also say, a lot of fund managers need to get in and will buy the dips. Thats almost a perfect setup.

Longer term, I am expecting the rally to continue until around the first of July and then a big sell off on profit taking. Lets see if that works out.

Have a "good" Good Friday" and a Happy Easter.

 

[clester]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37338.html

I've got this chart in the back of mind as a sorta blueprint for how the year might go. It has the 4 year presidential cycle vs Dow charted. I don't usually like these kind of seasonality charts but this seems to be pretty accurate so far.

 

[clester]

So....will this mornings dip get bought? S fund is getting hit the most. We are still in the basing pattern that we have been in for a couple weeks now. 797 is my stop loss on $emw (S fund). 1576 on S&P would be a clear break out on the upside or 1540 on the downside. So, I'm still holding.

 

[clester]

So....will this mornings dip get bought? S fund is getting hit the most. We are still in the basing pattern that we have been in for a couple weeks now. 797 is my stop loss on $emw (S fund). 1576 on S&P would be a clear break out on the upside or 1540 on the downside. So, I'm still holding.

Not a bad day. It seemed like a little profit taking to me. No damage done to the system. The levels above are still what I'm watching. Also, still looking for more gains this month and this quarter.

 

[clester]

Not a bad day. It seemed like a little profit taking to me. No damage done to the system. The levels above are still what I'm watching. Also, still looking for more gains this month and this quarter.

One concerning thing to me is that the last 2 days the s fund has been lagging the c fund. Perhaps the C is just catching up. Things usually even out, so I would expect the S to take off again soon or it could be a problem. We've had a nice long consolidation in the S and we should be ready for another climb.

 

[clester]

One concerning thing to me is that the last 2 days the s fund has been lagging the c fund. Perhaps the C is just catching up. Things usually even out, so I would expect the S to take off again soon or it could be a problem. We've had a nice long consolidation in the S and we should be ready for another climb.

The divergence continues and I see everyone has noticed now. That means it may not continue (from a contrarian pov). Another thing I noticed is that the us and euro markets aren't as correlated as usual. We're up when they're down. Perhaps the euro traders are moving money over here like I've heard some analysts say. I don't know but I'm not expecting a repeat of last year. That would be too easy. The market likes to frustrate traders. I'm thinking the sell off will come later this year around July. We could be up 20% by then and the sell off take us back down to 10% for the year before an end of the year rally. That seems to be what my crystal ball is saying.

That said, I have my stops in place ...797 on $emw (S fund).

 

[clester]

Obviously, we have some classic profit taking. The big winners like transports and small caps are getting sold. I have said 797 is a stop loss for me on $emw or S fund but looking at the charts I believe the 50 dma may be a better one. I wouldn't be surprised with some dip buying soon. Maybe this afternoon. I have nothing in my system saying sell yet but I use the 50dma as a gauge. The Dow and S&P are still okay. We are still in a bull market. Sentiment is neutral. If I do get a sell I will probably just sell 50%.

 

[clester]

Well, I obviously not happy with the action this week. The 50dma held on S fund but we are perilously close to a sell signal. This would be a perfect spot for a bounce. If we don't get it we could be trouble. Let's see how tomorrow turns out.

 

[MrBowl]

Things got real interesting this week. I agree that it's not "run for cover" yet. Worth watching closely, tho.

 

[bjean]

I believe this is the third time my tsp balance has gotten this high and then 1-2 % profit is taken! I have to get prudent here as I am probably going to withdraw half my balance to purchase 4 small houses for rental income. Is anyone familiar with tspkey.com services?

 

[MrBowl]

No, I'm not, but good luck. I think that's a good investment choice, especially since the real estate market now has great upside potential and little downside, in addition to the rental income.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I believe this is the third time my tsp balance has gotten this high and then 1-2 % profit is taken! I have to get prudent here as I am probably going to withdraw half my balance to purchase 4 small houses for rental income. Is anyone familiar with tspkey.com services?

I don't know anyone who uses TSPKEY, but I am aware they offer a service. They are one of many available outside of our Premiums available on this site. There are others, you can do a search to see them.

Rental Property is a good idea if you can get ones at the right price with a good market for tenants $$$$. My parents have a few. My mother says it is a full time job managing them and doing fix-ups and repairs.

Put a few bucks away each month in a slush account for unforeseen repairs. You can write them off, but you still have to pay for them before you write them off.

 

[clester]

We need a bounce from here or I will need to exit. I can never figure out how news events play out in the market. We had a bad ADP report and a fed person saying they could stop QE and north Korea saber rattling. If traders are worried the fed may stop easing the bad adp and today's unemployment report should stop any worrying. QE is going to continue forever it seems. So, that should be good for the market..right? I guess if things are too bad then it's bad but just a little bad is good.

Anyway, that's why I don't figure news events into my system. We are at the 50dma on the s fund and that is usually good support. If it breaks I'll get out. It's do or die for me today. I also have class this morning so any decision will take place by 11.

 

[clester]

We need a bounce from here or I will need to exit. I can never figure out how news events play out in the market. We had a bad ADP report and a fed person saying they could stop QE and north Korea saber rattling. If traders are worried the fed may stop easing the bad adp and today's unemployment report should stop any worrying. QE is going to continue forever it seems. So, that should be good for the market..right? I guess if things are too bad then it's bad but just a little bad is good.

Anyway, that's why I don't figure news events into my system. We are at the 50dma on the s fund and that is usually good support. If it breaks I'll get out. It's do or die for me today. I also have class this morning so any decision will take place by 11.

Thank goodness we got our bounce today. The markets seemed much more normal today as small caps outperformed again.

 

[clester]

Thank goodness we got our bounce today. The markets seemed much more normal today as small caps outperformed again.

Based on futures we just had a "dead cat bounce" so I am on watch again for an exit. I would think dip buyers would come in but they haven't yet. I have an IFT to burn so if I get out I would expect to get back in soon. We'll see. Maybe the jobs report will help but I doubt it. Profit taking seems to be in control for now.