clester's Account Talk

[clester]

So far so good. We could have that slow grind up again like we did in January. I think it will,be hard to play the dips because they should be short. I still think we are trending up through spring. When we do get a correction it will be steep because we have gone up so much. But for now, the trend is your friend IMO.

This seems to be playing out. It feels a lot lie January did. We are now over 70 on RSI's which is overbought. So, keep an eye on the uptrend line for a hint on a pullback. A pullback at the all time high is what I would expect but the slow climb makes it more likely we keep going up. Be wary of an exhaustion up move though.

 

[JTH]

This seems to be playing out. It feels a lot lie January did. We are now over 70 on RSI's which is overbought. So, keep an eye on the uptrend line for a hint on a pullback. A pullback at the all time high is what I would expect but the slow climb makes it more likely we keep going up. Be wary of an exhaustion up move though.

If you're a bear, this market is like Chinese water touture, 1 drop at a time. Tomorrow is Triple Witching, I do wonder how that plays out.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I got me a mug when I was ignorant. Now I can't even get close.

Ya, that happened to me once.

I was all like... "I did what? You gotta be kidding me!"

 

[clester]

Well, we are finally here, almost, at the record high. Triple top. Overbought. But, In a nice uptrend. Low volatility. I knew we would get here but now the question is: how will the market react?

Ive been hearing a lot of talk about the lack of a pullback and even some pros throwing in the towel and buying in. That's concerning to me. The market has a way of frustrating the most folks. It could get us a little more juice short term but we are definitely nearing the danger zone. My plan has been to start taking profits towards the end of the month but if we get a new high I may have to do it earlier. I'm watching the trend lines for clues too. I don't have a sell signal but some warning flags are out.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I like your reasoning, Clester. I can tell you've got a good feel for the market. Keep up the good work.

 

[clester]

I like your reasoning, Clester. I can tell you've got a good feel for the market. Keep up the good work.

Thanks. I've learned a lot over the years and now that I'm retired I have time to mull things over. I make plenty of mistakes though. You gotta just keep plugging along.

 

[bjean]

Clester, I also like to read your comments as I retired last August. I have been caught up in too many pullbacks in past few years. I then started making too many transfers to safety and missing the slow meltup. I am now trying to buy and hold but would like to miss the 5% pullback everyone keeps on mentioning.

It has been a blessed year since I retired last August, I got my retirement annuity handled by OPM in two months, deposited my annual leave lump sum into savings, dont have to tap into my tsp yet and my daughter just got accepted into a Honors College. At least we dont have to pay for the first four years of college, let the angels sing!!! I really appreciate everyone's comments on this wonderful site.

I feel for you members who still have to work and deal with this furlough crap and pay freezes, I am very grateful!

bjean

 

[clester]

Clester, I also like to read your comments as I retired last August. I have been caught up in too many pullbacks in past few years. I then started making too many transfers to safety and missing the slow meltup. I am now trying to buy and hold but would like to miss the 5% pullback everyone keeps on mentioning.

It has been a blessed year since I retired last August, I got my retirement annuity handled by OPM in two months, deposited my annual leave lump sum into savings, dont have to tap into my tsp yet and my daughter just got accepted into a Honors College. At least we dont have to pay for the first four years of college, let the angels sing!!! I really appreciate everyone's comments on this wonderful site.

I feel for you members who still have to work and deal with this furlough crap and pay freezes, I am very grateful!

bjean

Thanks for stepping by and letting me know. Sometimes I wonder if anyone reads my posts.

Great to hear about how retirements going. My kids got most of their college paid for as well. It takes a big burden off. Sounds like your enjoying it so far. Try not to get too stressed about the market. You could try a 50-50 allocation. It takes some risk out but keeps you in the market. I like it because I always felt like I could claim victory either way the market goes. ie. when it goes down you can tell yourself " at least I was 50% out".

 

[nnuut]

I reads your posts every day, because I value your opinions.

 

[clester]

I reads your posts every day, because I value your opinions.

Thanks. You've been here as long or longer than me. I also value your opinion.

I just wanted to pass along a little anecdote.

Before the last crash and in the 90's there were lots of shows about the wealthy. What kind of house can you buy for a million etc. what are the rich buying and spending on etc. the idea was, I guess, to play on feeling of investors that one day they could be one of this group.

Anyway, when these shows were every where the crash was soon to follow. Cnbc has started a new segment where they showcase this kind of stuff. There was a mansion in new jersey, Fancy cars, big parties etc. what are the uber rich doing.

This really scares me because it could be a sign that we are headed for another crash. It just all seems so familiar. It's a contrarian sign.

 

[Cactus]

Real interesting observation there, Clester. I think you're right that it's a contrarian sign. The problem I have in trying to follow signs like that is that I want to go out and head for the lillypad Monday morning when the crash could be over a year away. It's that problem I have with timing again.

 

[Birchtree]

Time in the market can often be more rewarding than timing the market. The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.

 

[clester]

Real interesting observation there, Clester. I think you're right that it's a contrarian sign. The problem I have in trying to follow signs like that is that I want to go out and head for the lillypad Monday morning when the crash could be over a year away. It's that problem I have with timing again.

I agree. It just makes me more vigilant. Something to keep in the back of your mind. You shouldn't count on any one thing to make you moves. Just be aware.

 

[clester]

Time in the market can often be more rewarding than timing the market. The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.

I agree there should always be a bias to be in the market. Timing is very difficult. But, you don't have to be 100% in all the tim or make moves of 100% in and out. Most timers here use that strategy but it's very risky IMO. I have learned to use the 50% rule. It's one of my strategies that has served me well.

 

[clester]

In my system a daily selloff of over 20 points On s&p is sell. It's a long way to noon though. I don't know how serious it is but with this kind of rally profit taking here is normal. A test of the breakout is also normal and could happen today or tomorrow.

 

[jkenjohnson]

In my system a daily selloff of over 20 points On s&p is sell. It's a long way to noon though. I don't know how serious it is but with this kind of rally profit taking here is normal. A test of the breakout is also normal and could happen today or tomorrow.

I would not be surpised to see the market climb back and end the day positive.

 

[clester]

I would not be surpised to see the market climb back and end the day positive.

Maybe. At least it's not 20 or more points down.

 

[clester]

I'm encouraged so far by the modest pullback. I think folks that were looking for a dip are going to go ahead and jump in now. Their tired of waiting. In the past a EU event would knocked us down by 2%. The news has given a reason to sell. We're not down much and in a way I would prefer a little more down. We were also right up against the all time high where I expected a pause. Next time will bust through IMO.

 

[clester]

I'm encouraged so far by the modest pullback. I think folks that were looking for a dip are going to go ahead and jump in now. Their tired of waiting. In the past a EU event would knocked us down by 2%. The news has given a reason to sell. We're not down much and in a way I would prefer a little more down. We were also right up against the all time high where I expected a pause. Next time will bust through IMO.

Seems the pullback is over. I expect us to bust through the 1565 area this week. There is nothing to complain about on the charts.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Seems the pullback is over. I expect us to bust through the 1565 area this week. There is nothing to complain about on the charts.

What happened just before noon?