clester's Account Talk

[clester]

That would be nice. I just don't want to enter here. I am waiting for a pullback.

I hear ya. Its hard to buy when the market is up so much.

BTW, for anyone interested :
an up day over 20 points in S&P is a buy signal in my system and a down day over 20 points is a sell.

The theory being such a strong move usually causes more action in the same direction.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I hear ya. Its hard to buy when the market is up so much.

BTW, for anyone interested :
an up day over 20 points in S&P is a buy signal in my system and a down day over 20 points is a sell.

The theory being such a strong move usually causes more action in the same direction.

Even at the top of the market?

 

[Birchtree]

No one knows where and when we'll be at a market top. Mom and pop are going to power up the next leg higher and it may resemble a parabolic acceleration.

 

[clester]

Even at the top of the market?

Yes. Its a little scary isn't it. If I were buying here I would definitely have a stop loss in mind.

 

[clester]

I hear ya. Its hard to buy when the market is up so much.

BTW, for anyone interested :
an up day over 20 points in S&P is a buy signal in my system and a down day over 20 points is a sell.

The theory being such a strong move usually causes more action in the same direction.

we didn't get the 20 points so that buy signal wasn't triggered. But, all signals are go with my system right now. A warning would be the RSI over 70 (80 is a sell) and sentiment getting too high (there are a lot of skeptics). a 20 point loss in a day on S&P, or a break of the 50 dma. I expect the first warning to be the RSI over 70,

So, no "spring swoon" it looks like. So those "sell in May" folks will need to buy back in IMO. My spring rally theory is on track. The theory also says we have a sell off somewhere around July.

 

[Sensei]

we didn't get the 20 points so that buy signal wasn't triggered. But, all signals are go with my system right now. A warning would be the RSI over 70 (80 is a sell) and sentiment getting too high (there are a lot of skeptics). a 20 point loss in a day on S&P, or a break of the 50 dma. I expect the first warning to be the RSI over 70,

So, no "spring swoon" it looks like. So those "sell in May" folks will need to buy back in IMO. My spring rally theory is on track. The theory also says we have a sell off somewhere around July.

I'll admit, I didn't believe you at first, but you're starting to convince me.

SPY shows a good size gap. It wouldn't surprise me to see that get filled next week, creating even more disbelievers. But now 1600 should be support instead of resistance. I like that.

 

[clester]

Another new week? Already? Time flies.

My system is still on a buy. There are no warning flags. The RSI values will probably be the first to signal offer a warning. Over 70 is overbought(warning) and 80 is very overbought(sell). But for now, things look good.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Another new week? Already? Time flies.

My system is still on a buy. There are no warning flags. The RSI values will probably be the first to signal offer a warning. Over 70 is overbought(warning) and 80 is very overbought(sell). But for now, things look good.

Don't drop that crystal ball. As a matter of fact, maybe you should keep it in a padded box when not in use. Don't want anything to happen to it.

 

[clester]

Don't drop that crystal ball. As a matter of fact, maybe you should keep it in a padded box when not in use. Don't want anything to happen to it.

LOL

 

[JamesE]

From May 2nd:

P.S. I'm not giving up just yet, this run is getting "long in the tooth" but I think it'll print 1620-1640 before it corrects.

Hmmm, that didn't take long... Seems as though I may have been too conservative in my projection eh?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

From May 2nd:



Hmmm, that didn't take long... Seems as though I may have been too conservative in my projection eh?

Naw, it's still long in the tooth...

 

[clester]

Another new week? Already? Time flies.

My system is still on a buy. There are no warning flags. The RSI values will probably be the first to signal offer a warning. Over 70 is overbought(warning) and 80 is very overbought(sell). But for now, things look good.

Ditto from above. Watching the RSI and 50 dma for any warning signs. My thesis is on track and if it continues we will rally through sometime in July or so. Just have a sell stop and don't panic if we have a down day or two.

 

[MrBowl]

So far you are right on. It was a bold call. Until you are wrong, you are the man!

I must say that the thought of your call - up into July - was on my mind as I prepared to jump back in.

 

[clester]

So far you are right on. It was a bold call. Until you are wrong, you are the man!

I must say that the thought of your call - up into July - was on my mind as I prepared to jump back in.

If anyone jumps in here you just need to have a sell stop picked out. My call is for a rally but the exact timing on getting in is not my specialty. I am lucky enough to have some profits since my last entry. That gives me more comfort than someone just now getting in. Just be careful, is all I'm saying'.

 

[JTH]

If anyone jumps in here you just need to have a sell stop picked out. My call is for a rally but the exact timing on getting in is not my specialty. I am lucky enough to have some profits since my last entry. That gives me more comfort than someone just now getting in. Just be careful, is all I'm saying'.

Good stuff, nothing worse then when everybody thinks the same thing, everyone can't be right at the same time

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Good stuff, nothing worse then when everybody thinks the same thing, everyone can't be right at the same time

And if they are, do the opposite

 

[clester]

And if they are, do the opposite

Agreed. Being a contrarian pays off. But there are plenty of skeptics still out there. Many talking heads are throwing in the towel and begrudging buying or say wait for a pullback. It will be interesting to see the sentiment survey this week. Sentiment may be the first warning flag. But how many folks that have missed out will buy on any small pullback? I think a lot and they will fuel the rally through July IMO.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Agreed. Being a contrarian pays off. But there are plenty of skeptics still out there. Many talking heads are throwing in the towel and begrudging buying or say wait for a pullback. It will be interesting to see the sentiment survey this week. Sentiment may be the first warning flag. But how many folks that have missed out will buy on any small pullback? I think a lot and they will fuel the rally through July IMO.

I just can't get in at an all time high.

 

[clester]

I just can't get in at an all time high.

I don't blame you. If I was out right now I would be thinking the same thing. So, you are waiting for a pullback right? How much would you need to jump in? Probably a couple days, right?
That's what I would think. So, probably a lot of other folks are too. That's why I think the pullbacks won't be too big for a while.

Btw, just curious. What would get you to buy in?

 

[jkenjohnson]

I don't blame you. If I was out right now I would be thinking the same thing. So, you are waiting for a pullback right? How much would you need to jump in? Probably a couple days, right?
That's what I would think. So, probably a lot of other folks are too. That's why I think the pullbacks won't be too big for a while.

Btw, just curious. What would get you to buy in?

Probably 3-5% pullback.