clester's Account Talk

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Well what a turn of events. I did so bad last year that I just about gave up. This year is just the opposite.

I'm feeling a little nervous about the run-up. Thinking about taking some off the table. But, the only thing that seems to be working is sentiment. Looking at the tracker, most everyone is still out of stocks. Therefore, I have hope of the rally continuing (contrarian view). Most people I talk to are very skeptical of the rally (bad economic news) and are waiting for a pull back to get in (especially those that missed out on the current rally or have locked in their profits and gotten out). That's another positive. Will the crowd finally jump in? Will the shorts close out their positions? The market is still heavily shorted. (more positives)
So, I will stay with the current trend for now and wait for some sort of technical (chart) breakdown to get out.
 
Somehow I just knew that you were going to hold tight. A move above SPX 940 and especially a move above 1000 would take the worst case extended bear market outcome off the table. You are in an enviable position - how's the pressure? Look over your shoulder at those gunslingers riding up on your position.
 
Looking for technicals to get out? Well, for one thing, the 20 dma in SPY has crossed above the 50dma, and for another, the ^VIX has dropped below 40; both signs of complacency and over-optimism in a crushing bear market.

What I liked about today was the double resistance at 815. And our bond shares hit 12.6 for the first time in months. I think there may be some upside momentum in play; but could be short term. It's mostly hot air reaction - no fundamentals - and this is earnings season.

Keep your eyes open and finger on the button.
 
Gosh, the last time I saw the "Cooler" he was taking the train to Kingsport, Tennessee. What ever you do don't let him near your house or try to be your friend. He did have a nice visit in Virginia.
 
Still seems to be a lot of skepticism out there about this rally. But, bottom line is we are stair stepping up for now and the trend is your friend. That said, I am looking for a breakdown of the trend and will get out when the trend breaks.

So, I am cautiously optimistic but have my finger on the eject button.
 
Well another good week. It was a little iffy early in the week. I had made a transfer to G fund but cancelled it. I am still on the lookout for the trend to break. If it does I will take some off the board. Some positives for the rally to continue is that most TSPtalkers ars are in G or F and many people I talk to are skeptical of the rally. Commentators on CNBC are generally negative also.

All these things are positives.

Negatives are the jobless rate, bank issues, and consumer confidence.

I say let it ride for now. The trend is your friend.
 
Well you won't see me step on Superman's cape - good profits to follow. I'll be satisfied if I can make it to the zero line - anything after that is gravy. Or isit groovy.
 
Well, so much for the trend break. Lost my #1 ranking so that takes some pressure off.
I feel much better about the market but I would feel better if we had a pull back. My gut is saying "you better get in or you'll miss the boat" so a pull back is probably coming soon.
 
Lots of people loading up right up here near the top. Folks afraid of missing out. I feel it too. I'm fighting the urge. I have low will power! Buy the dip?????
 
JTH said:
Hey buddy that was one sweet 6 week snipe you picked up!

Are you getting lonely in G yet? :cheesy:
Click to expand...
I'm feeling left behind now and I got the itch to get in. That means I probably shouldn't.:) I'm looking for a big pull back soon. Sentiment is what worked for me before so I will play it till it quits working. Lots of folks gettin" fully invested and sentiment is pretty positive. TSPers are pretty bullish (and invested). I think the run is over for now.
 
Just Remember...

Clester,

Just remember it's a retirement fund.

Gambling too hard, guessing wrong, and playing loose can lead to many a night with a fine plate of Alpo:p in your golden years.

Your 21% gain this year (with another 2%-3% coming in the G Fund) would be a great two year average. Don't know what you did last year though ;). If the market corrects you can jump in. To me the bull seems run. We shall see...
 
Re: Just Remember...

Boghie said:
Clester,

Just remember it's a retirement fund.

Gambling too hard, guessing wrong, and playing loose can lead to many a night with a fine plate of Alpo:p in your golden years.

Your 21% gain this year (with another 2%-3% coming in the G Fund) would be a great two year average. Don't know what you did last year though ;). If the market corrects you can jump in. To me the bull seems run. We shall see...
Click to expand...
Very true!
 
I have to agree. I have heavy I and S myself. I think small caps and the emerging markets will recover faster than large caps.
 
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