clester's Account Talk

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My strategy is to be in at least 50% while we're in an uptrend. I've violated that and have lost out some. C and S have been up too much it seems and I has broken out of its basing pattern. So, the I seems the best bet for my 50%. As others have said the dollar my hurt me there, but I'll probably ride it for awhile. I hate the I for short term plays. FV has bitten me too many times.
 
Moving to I fund for several reasons. 1)Tame inflation data should help the I fund. 2)Its due to play catch-up. 3) It not as overbought as USM. Looks like a good day to load up. 4) Chart is in great shape.

I'm not sure where FV's will come. I'm not really gung-ho, but odds seem to be in favor of continued climb in the short term.
 
I really want to move a little to the side. But what a great buying opportunity today. Looking for a big week next week. We've rested this week. 100% C
 
Looks like another good buying opportunity today. It the routine holds up we'll bounce tomorrow. Looking at the charts it looks like we'll be at the bottom of the short term channel (1 month). I'm in the I fund and its getting hammered. Should I stay for the bounce in the I tomorrow? or go to the C for the bounce? Lets see how the day unfolds.
 
Looks like the S fund is way oversold today. It should get a bounce soon. Dollar is at resistance level of 80. EU is oversold also, but dollar may bounce also. I think I'll give the S a whirl.
 
Really unsure today. The markets seem to be oversold (per stochastics). Especially the S fund. It has some catching up to do. So, I decided to just let it ride.
 
I have reached my pain threshold. I'll move 50% to G or F. So, for those contrarians out there, you have a buy signal. I look for a short covering bounce at the close. I think they'll want to close position for the week. (I'm hoping here). We come down so far so fast we've got to have a bounce. Where are all the dip buyers? At least today its a modestly quiet day.
 
I can't stay on the sidelines right now, although I afraid (probably good). I'm glad today has been flat so far. hope it stays that way. We are way oversold, especially the I fund. S fund continues to lag and it might bounce a little harder, its drifting further than the C fund( safer). I expect a couple days up and then lower again.
 
I'm expecting a bad reaction, at least initially, to the fed statement. So, I went 50 g 50 i. I may buy back in for Wednesday. We'll see.
 
I'm looking to play the FV thing with the I fund. I plan to be out for Friday. Subject to change. I'm looking for a negative reaction after the fed and then a reversal for tomorrow.
 
Looks like another up day. Good day to take some off the table. The last couple Fridays have been bad. I will probably go 100% G for Friday. The question is will the credit scare be back? UK and EU have interest rate meetings tomorrow also.
 
I don't want to be in for friday. They've been bad lately. We were overbought yesterday, but with this mornings sell off we'll probably come off that. 100% G
 
It will be interesting to see if the sub-prime woes follow the market into tomorrow. The central banks seem to be finally starting to step up...but they may be trying to be surgical...inwhich case...I don't think we're through this yet. It could be that we test the 200dma again before this si all thru..

Good luck in your investing..

FS
 
I'm going to sit today out. If we finish down I may try to play an oversold bounce for Monday. It's too wild out there. No one knows what to expect. I think we're in for a long rough road.
 
Based the the ebbnflow following (everyone selling I fund) I bet the I fund takes a dive tomorrow. I call it the TSP effect. I haven't tracked it yet, but I think there is a correlation. We have a lot of money commulatively.
 
So far my theory of a similar pattern to 1998 is intact. Then the fed cut .25% in sept. and .5% in oct. The market took off after the .5% Bernanke cut .5% first. Look at the chart for 1998 starting in oct compared to sept 2007. I don't like look at those types of comparisons very often, but it fits very well chart-wise and economy-wise. Only time will tell.
 
Well I for one is glad this year is over. It's been my worst year yet vs the S & P. Too many bad decisions and being caught in every big drop. I didn't have as much time this year to spend on research and such, and it shows. It does take time to be able to time the market. I'm hoping for a better year and plan on going back to the basics (the way I used to trade). I think this year will have several big swings sorta like last year. I hope everyone makes a lot of money this year! Good luck.
 
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