clester's Account Talk

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clester said:
Folks that missed the chance to get out are selling the bounce today. Thats why its hard to get a good rally going in these situations. It's seems that we may need to go lower. I'm patient. I would love to see the RSI indicators tun up while prices go down another leg (divergence) to be a perfect buying opportunity.

Again, the sell the rally today is a bearish sign. Be careful out there.
Click to expand...

The TSPTalk sentiment survey called the selloff. We were way to bullish.
 
clester said:
Folks that missed the chance to get out are selling the bounce today. Thats why its hard to get a good rally going in these situations. It's seems that we may need to go lower. I'm patient. I would love to see the RSI indicators tun up while prices go down another leg (divergence) to be a perfect buying opportunity.

Again, the sell the rally today is a bearish sign. Be careful out there.
Click to expand...

It would be nice to see the S&P500 low of 1867.61 set on 25 Aug 15 taken out. Now that would be a buying opportunity.:rolleyes:
 
I'll have to take a good look at the charts this weekend but i do have a buy signal based on RSI's being bellow 30. It will be a 50% buy based on my system. Bear market rules say be no more than 50%in stocks
 
Wha oh...chickens are coming home to roost from 2008!! (Also, I base that last sentence on emotion and sour grapes for being out the last 8 years so.......)




ravensfan said:
It would be nice to see the S&P500 low of 1867.61 set on 25 Aug 15 taken out. Now that would be a buying opportunity.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...
 
Ok, here's what I think.

1) All stock funds are in a bear market (50 dma below 200 dma) so my system says be in no more than 50%.

2) RSI values are in the buy zone (below 30) but the ideal is for the RSI to start trending up while prices make a lower low. That takes some time usually.

3) Short term we should see a rally based on RSI being oversold. Maybe just a 2 day one but maybe longer and then another drop to set up the divergence in 2).

4) The question is: will we have a tradable rally based on our 2 day trading limits. I used a trade on the 4th so I have one trade in and one out for the month. We have 3 weeks of trading left for the month which is a long time to be on the sidelines if the trade doesn't work.

5) If the RSI gets to 20 on any of the stock funds then I have a strong buy that overrides all my other rules.

So, the prudent thing, I think, is to wait and see. I still think we will have a hard time climbing too high because there are still folks who have rode it down and will want to cut loses given the chance. Also, I don't think we are quite bearish enough, but I do hear talking heads saying "get out" more than usual. So, we are getting close. At least short term.
 
Thank you for your analysis, it helps those of us with little to no experience gain understanding. Just one question, where can I look up the RSI numbers?
 
daze823 said:
Thank you for your analysis, it helps those of us with little to no experience gain understanding. Just one question, where can I look up the RSI numbers?
Click to expand...

It's a common indicator that most charting web sites should have as an option. I use StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Financial Charts

There are a lot of indicators that different folks use. I just like this one because it rarely gives Signals and with our trading restrictions that's good. You should research others too and pick the one that suits you. But, don't try to over analyze with too many because it ends up confusing you. Keep it simple is my motto.
 
Nice analysis. I'm in the same boat. I got out on the 4th and I think that a oversold bounce this week will be followed by further decline so I want to save my IFT for later.Sure would be nice to have at least one more IFT. :smile:
 
clester said:
3) Short term we should see a rally based on RSI being oversold. Maybe just a 2 day one but maybe longer and then another drop to set up the divergence in 2).

4) The question is: will we have a tradable rally based on our 2 day trading limits. I used a trade on the 4th so I have one trade in and one out for the month. We have 3 weeks of trading left for the month which is a long time to be on the sidelines if the trade doesn't work.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your insight clester. I particularly agree with your statement regarding still having 3 weeks of trading left for the month. This thing is still way to volatile and the risk is not worth the reward of a two day upswing. IMHO it is probably better to wait it out and catch the next upswing.
 
Here's the rally. How long will it last? My buy signal was right. Hope i get that second drop to set up that scenario i have been looking for.
 
Taking a nibble today. 15 - I 10-C 5-S still have 1 IFT left if we tank again before eom.


Cheers Clester and Happy new year everyone!!
 
Last edited:
Been looking a little closer at charts and may be buying today. Gonna let it play out this morning but leaning toward getting in. I have been looking on a little longer time frame (back to Aug) and I see the divergence that I have been talking about on the S and I funds. (RSI moving higher while prices make a lower low). The C fund hasn't done the same but is holding the lower trend line and touched RSI of 30.

Also, I need to see the selling abate before jumping in and we may have that too.
 
clester said:
Been looking a little closer at charts and may be buying today. Gonna let it play out this morning but leaning toward getting in. I have been looking on a little longer time frame (back to Aug) and I see the divergence that I have been talking about on the S and I funds. (RSI moving higher while prices make a lower low). The C fund hasn't done the same but is holding the lower trend line and touched RSI of 30.

Also, I need to see the selling abate before jumping in and we may have that too.
Click to expand...

if you go in will it be at 50% or 100%??
 
ATCHUNTman said:
if you go in will it be at 50% or 100%??
Click to expand...

Hey Jeff, Hope you're enjoying retirement.

This is a good question. It's a gray area in my system. I usually only go in 50% in a bear market but the setup we have is a pretty safe bet and would override that. So, I would go 100% in this case but I would be careful. I only have 1 trade left. So, if the trade doesn't work out I would get out and have to sit on the sideline the rest of the month.

Markets are volatile. Be careful.
 
clester said:
Hey Jeff, Hope you're enjoying retirement.

This is a good question. It's a gray area in my system. I usually only go in 50% in a bear market but the setup we have is a pretty safe bet and would override that. So, I would go 100% in this case but I would be careful. I only have 1 trade left. So, if the trade doesn't work out I would get out and have to sit on the sideline the rest of the month.

Markets are volatile. Be careful.
Click to expand...

Retirement is great Craig, hope you are doing well. I only have 1 trade left as well. It's been a wild start to 2016! Thanks.
 
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