clester's Account Talk

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It's been flat since the open. Stable. What does that mean idk. Scary to be buying right now but I have made my move and will give it a few days. The August lows are not far off.

We could be setting up a big head and shoulders pattern. If we can rally we should be able to something like we did after August. If not it could be very scary.
 
Tsunami said:
Well, looks like we're getting that nuttier selloff. Like many others I'm sure, I'm struggling to decide if I want to catch the knife today. Very tough decision. Will it bottom today?...early Tuesday?...or not? Indicators are extremely oversold. Seems like even if today is not the short-term bottom it's got to be close. One thing I can say, if I was still in stocks today, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't get out...too much risk of selling at a low here. Emotion is tough to overcome though.
Click to expand...

I'm accumulating on some of my bio's. Crazy.
Here's a couple charts I liked that were posted yesterday on twits showing the potential collapse and support for the SPX

http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_48145727.?1452769058

http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_48146089.?1452770188

Was seriously thinking of making a move today but Waiting for next week Already took some on the 12'th. Thinking this afternoon will tell the future unless we trip some circuit breakers.


BooDog said:
Taking a nibble today. 15 - I 10-C 5-S still have 1 IFT left if we tank again before eom.


Cheers Clester and Happy new year everyone!!
Click to expand...
 
Tsunami said:
Well, looks like we're getting that nuttier selloff. Like many others I'm sure, I'm struggling to decide if I want to catch the knife today. Very tough decision. Will it bottom today?...early Tuesday?...or not? Indicators are extremely oversold. Seems like even if today is not the short-term bottom it's got to be close. One thing I can say, if I was still in stocks today, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't get out...too much risk of selling at a low here. Emotion is tough to overcome though.
Click to expand...

After reviewing 2008 January market trading...looks to me like we could see S&P go to 1776...or another 5 percent downside at the markets worse level. That would be the combination of learning Iran getting approval to sell oil over weekend...another sharp decline in overseas trading...oil finishing up a sharp decline...and that panic selling high volume decline to put in a bottom . Therefore...expect bloodbath Tuesday after Martin Luther King Holiday...then unstable but net upward movements from thereon next week after Tuesday meltdown. That would put the market in the larger decline of -16% fall for the year. Then expect a relief rally to get us back to -11 to -12 percent losses for year...then down we go again back to -15 to -17 percent loss for the year...then sharp declines and back and forth trading to finish year -11 to -17 percent losses. Like I stated before. Bull Markets don't end well. The bull ended in 2015. Ugly Ugly 2016 market. Caught on the wrong side of the trades and you can expect bigger losses. I'm getting hit hard in the TSP Autotracker...but I'm in too deep now as likely will have seen most of the market damage done by late Tuesday. :sick:
 
Lots of doom and gloom out there. Getting me scared. No one expecting a bounce back. Only hope i have is that we are overly bearish. My timing needs work. I have never been very good at picking the day to buy. I think we should bounce up to the 50 dma but idk. I don't like these big down days. During the last few years they've been buying opportunities but in bear markets they are not.
 
clester said:
Lots of doom and gloom out there. Getting me scared. No one expecting a bounce back. Only hope i have is that we are overly bearish. My timing needs work. I have never been very good at picking the day to buy. I think we should bounce up to the 50 dma but idk. I don't like these big down days. During the last few years they've been buying opportunities but in bear markets they are not.
Click to expand...

I'm concerned about the tsptalk sentiment survey for this week. I had expected a huge bear percentage but its just slightly bearish. That means we could have more downside this week :(
 
The only positive I can muster is that I am beating the S&P by 4.36%. Not a lot of consolation. We are just below the 1867 low of August and barely above Friday's low. We've gotta be close to a big bounce. I just wish sentiment was lower. TSPTalk sentiment survey wasn't low enough but today might do it as folks give up the bullish hope.
 
clester said:
The only positive I can muster is that I am beating the S&P by 4.36%. Not a lot of consolation. We are just below the 1867 low of August and barely above Friday's low. We've gotta be close to a big bounce. I just wish sentiment was lower. TSPTalk sentiment survey wasn't low enough but today might do it as folks give up the bullish hope.
Click to expand...

Also, the divergence I have been looking for is intact on all indexes. That is, the RSI is higher than in August and prices are lower.
 
I have strong buys now on all stock funds based on RSI. S fund is at 20 C fund at 26. Therefore, i'm not selling. This could be the capitulation. Lets hope so.
 
clester said:
I have strong buys now on all stock funds based on RSI. S fund is at 20 C fund at 26. Therefore, i'm not selling. This could be the capitulation. Lets hope so.
Click to expand...

RSI's can go lower. One indicator I like to use is the ADX with divergence, that is just starting to show what we're seeing now on the DOW. An increase of momentum to the downside. There are certainly some support levels we can watch for the bounce. I'm no advisor so wouldn't begin to give advice. I'm holding some stocks that I decided to ride the dip on 2 weeks ago, did do some repositioning but still, on paper, it's painful to watch. Selling now though? No way. Still in 15 - I 10-C 5-S. We're nearing support now but doesn't mean it'll hold. Hope only goes so far. Always good to see many views to help see the big picture. A LOT of craziness out there.
 
Lakebound said:
My goodness, I hope that you are right.

Frank
Click to expand...

Looks like the rally has begun. The problem now is that folks that held on during the drop may want to sell on the way up to recover some losses. I expect the RSI to get back to 50 or so and possibly to the 50 dma. This was the bottom in my opinion. But we shall see.
 
clester said:
Looks like the rally has begun. The problem now is that folks that held on during the drop may want to sell on the way up to recover some losses. I expect the RSI to get back to 50 or so and possibly to the 50 dma. This was the bottom in my opinion. But we shall see.
Click to expand...

I bought at 1922 so i would live to see that again!
 
This kind of up and down action in indicative of a bottom. Big swings in both direction indicates a battle between bull and bears and usually ends up with a direction change. Back up to the 50 dma imo
 
Just got my first annuity payment for the new year. No COLA and health insurance went up $24 a month even though I went from family to self plus one. :(

Maybe next year we can get a cola. My supplement doesn't have a cola either or my TSP payments. I'm 56, so I'll have to wait to change on 59.5 for tsp and 62 to get social security which will be higher than my supplement.

At least inflation is low , right! I'm spending less on gas which makes up for the insurance cost.

So, I guess I'm happy with that.
 
Yeah it's amazing how this years self plus one rates are more than last years family plan. Somebody's getting rich, but it ain't us little folks.

On a happy note, was reading an article in the Feb 16 issue of NARFE magazine that Congress is once again looking at WEP reform to either eliminate it totally or reduce it by 50%. That would be awesome if it passes. I never understood why we have to pay in at the full rate, only to have our annuity reduced when it was time to collect. Just don't seem right!!!
 
You have to be careful because some of the Self Plus One plans cost more than Family. :eek:

I'm with GEHA and luckily they aren't one of them. I'm paying about the same in 2016 for Self Plus One as I did for Family in 2015.
 
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