clester's Account Talk

[clester]

1850-1875 area is key to hold. It's basically the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern and where we have bounced all the way back to September.

AGG is overbought and my system has a sell signal. It could stay overbought so I would sell 50% if I was in it. So maybe that bodes well for stocks?

 

[Whipsaw]

AGG is overbought and my system has a sell signal. It could stay overbought so I would sell 50% if I was in it. So maybe that bodes well for stocks?

Clester, trying to understand... with your system, bear market is 50% exposure, so this would have you exit? Also, is your signature accurate? Thanks!

 

[clester]

Clester, trying to understand... with your system, bear market is 50% exposure, so this would have you exit? Also, is your signature accurate? Thanks!

You are right. My system says 50% max. But I do have one exception that gives me some leeway. If I have a very compelling reason. That gives me some flexibility. Here are the reasons I gave for going 100%C:

1) C fund has hit RSI 30 again and had a nice reversal

2) S&P successfully tested its previous lows

3) I can use 1878 as a stop loss or 1862 is the August low

4) C fund is best performing fund.

5) Holiday reversals are common, at least short term.

6) How often do you get the chance to go up so much on the S&P?

 

[clester]

You are right. My system says 50% max. But I do have one exception that gives me some leeway. If I have a very compelling reason. That gives me some flexibility. Here are the reasons I gave for going 100%C:

1) C fund has hit RSI 30 again and had a nice reversal

2) S&P successfully tested its previous lows

3) I can use 1878 as a stop loss or 1862 is the August low

4) C fund is best performing fund.

5) Holiday reversals are common, at least short term.

6) How often do you get the chance to go up so much on the S&P?

Also, I look for divergence on the RSI vs price. From September lows to recent lows we had a higher RSI and a lower price. That indicates price direction should change. But I am nervous being in 100% right now.

 

[clester]

Also, I look for divergence on the RSI vs price. From September lows to recent lows we had a higher RSI and a lower price. That indicates price direction should change. But I am nervous being in 100% right now.

One more thing. The 1875 area held in September and we went below it for a short time last month. That is major support. If it breaks then all bets are off.

 

[clester]

If we can close above 1940 on this run then we should be able to run up to the 50 dma. Should be a test there. If we fail there then we could be in for trouble as a head and shoulders pattern may play out which is bearish.

 

[Scout333]

I have BC/BS basic. Not much difference in family vs self plus 1. Doesn't make sense to me.

I read that most retirees are BCBS and now couples in self plus one which pushed most of higher cost plan members aka us old folks into self plus one BCBS plans which affects the premiums charged. New Year's resolution is to spend some time looking at the plans next year!!

 

[clester]

Will artificial intelligence mean the end of traders? Claims superwealthy are ALREADY using robo advisors to manage their stocks | Daily Mail Online

Took some online courses using ARtificial intelligence. Different search methods like graph search and others

 

[clester]

If we can close above 1940 on this run then we should be able to run up to the 50 dma. Should be a test there. If we fail there then we could be in for trouble as a head and shoulders pattern may play out which is bearish.

We're still above the head and shoulders neckline. But barely above it. We should have support at this level (1850-1875). If we fail here I'll be forced to sell. I hope that isn't what happens. If it does then we could have another 5% or more downside. The RSI has recovered but failed to get above 50 (bearish sign) and could go back to 30.

 

[Tsunami]

We're still above the head and shoulders neckline. But barely above it. We should have support at this level (1850-1875). If we fail here I'll be forced to sell. I hope that isn't what happens. If it does then we could have another 5% or more downside. The RSI has recovered but failed to get above 50 (bearish sign) and could go back to 30.

This is about the only ray of hope I can find this weekend for the short term. While the stat calls for pretty much a 100% chance of lower prices this coming week, the chart also suggests an almost certainty of a strong rally above the current 1880 level very soon...
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/696042105311858690/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

 

[clester]

This is about the only ray of hope I can find this weekend for the short term. While the stat calls for pretty much a 100% chance of lower prices this coming week, the chart also suggests an almost certainty of a strong rally above the current 1880 level very soon...
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/696042105311858690/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

I think a close below 1858 (Jan 20 low) is a problem. Lets hope it holds otherwise I have to sell.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I think a close below 1858 (Jan 20 low) is a problem. Lets hope it holds otherwise I have to sell.

Craig, You getting out today?

 

[clester]

Unfortunately yes. My system is calling for it. Although i want to see it close below 1958 i think it will.

 

[ATCHUNTman]

What would you look for to buy the C again since it does look like a close below 1858 is a strong possibility??

Unfortunately yes. My system is calling for it. Although i want to see it close below 1958 i think it will.

 

[clester]

What would you look for to buy the C again since it does look like a close below 1858 is a strong possibility??

Well, S&P below 30 would get a 50% buy signal. But in a bear market you buy short term and only 50%. Really for a strong buy RSI of 20 or if this is a head and shoulders I think the rules are for a drop equal to the top of the head to the neckline. I use formations as well as RSI. We could go much lower. I will probably look to buy 50 sometime after we hit 30 again. That might be soon. Also, I like to see a dip below 30 and then a close back above it. It can stay oversold for longer than you might think.

 

[ATCHUNTman]

Thanks Craig. What about the F fund? Too late?

Well, S&P below 30 would get a 50% buy signal. But in a bear market you buy short term and only 50%. Really for a strong buy RSI of 20 or if this is a head and shoulders I think the rules are for a drop equal to the top of the head to the neckline. I use formations as well as RSI. We could go much lower. I will probably look to buy 50 sometime after we hit 30 again. That might be soon. Also, I like to see a dip below 30 and then a close back above it. It can stay oversold for longer than you might think.

 

[clester]

Thanks Craig. What about the F fund? Too late?

I wouldn't buy right now. It may go higher but its overbought. If you do I would just do 50% and sell if the rsi drops below 70.

 

[ATCHUNTman]

I am still hanging out in the G fund looking for a good entry, thanks for the info!!

 

[clester]

Looking at the S fund and getting very interested. We have an RSI/price divergence and the makings of a bottom. 860 on $emw has held 3 times. Possibly jumping in there soon.

 

[clester]

Looking at the S fund and getting very interested. We have an RSI/price divergence and the makings of a bottom. 860 on $emw has held 3 times. Possibly jumping in there soon.

860 didn't hold so....

IF we did indeed have a head and shoulders pattern then we could go below 1700 on S&P

The head was about 2100 and neckline about 1860. That's 240 points or so. 1860 - 240 = 1620 ouch. I'm just using convenient numbers. Real technical analysts could give us a proper number. In any case, we are in trouble. We may be able to hit a short term bounce here and there.

I'm not sure this scenario will happen. Maybe something will change.