clester's Account Talk

[clester]

If we finish like we are now then I think we have the all clear to run up to the 200 dma. There we might struggle. Remember breakouts tend to get retested. So, I would expect a little sideways action at the 200 dma and if it can breakout then a retest. If it fails to get through it then we could have a nice pullback.

Very nice day. I'm still thinking we can run up to the 200 dma but now the RSI's are climbing fast too. So, I'll be watching to see if we get to 70. C and S are over 60 now. That gives plenty of room and 70 might coincide with hitting the 200 dma area.

 

[clester]

Very nice day. I'm still thinking we can run up to the 200 dma but now the RSI's are climbing fast too. So, I'll be watching to see if we get to 70. C and S are over 60 now. That gives plenty of room and 70 might coincide with hitting the 200 dma area.

We are not overbought yet by the RSI indicator and next resistance is the 200 dma. A one or two day pullback along the way would be normal. Perhaps on jobs day? Not enough info to try and time it. When we get to the 200 dma I may take 50% off the table. The RSI's may get overbought but that's ok until we get a divergence where RSI makes a lower high while prices make one more higher high. I also watch the tsp talk sentiment survey for over bullishness but we are still in good shape.

 

[clester]

We are not overbought yet by the RSI indicator and next resistance is the 200 dma. A one or two day pullback along the way would be normal. Perhaps on jobs day? Not enough info to try and time it. When we get to the 200 dma I may take 50% off the table. The RSI's may get overbought but that's ok until we get a divergence where RSI makes a lower high while prices make one more higher high. I also watch the tsp talk sentiment survey for over bullishness but we are still in good shape.

I'm surprised we haven't had a little pullback recently. S fund has gone straight up basically. S fund has also been outperforming by a lot over C fund. But we are still not overbought and I still expect a run to the 200 dma where I also expect the RSI to be about 70 (overbought). Getting the feeling that might trigger one.

On a personal note, I am finally in the green for the year but trailing F fund a little. Hope to take it out this month. Did I just jinx it? Hope not.....

 

[ATCHUNTman]

Nice trade Craig, wish I would have joined you!

 

[clester]

Nice trade Craig, wish I would have joined you!

thanks Jeff

 

[rspring]

Nice trade Craig, wish I would have joined you!

I know we are due for a pull back, but this market is building steam and there are a lot of bears out there. I think we will explode higher when they decide to join in on the fun. That may not happen until the Fed announcement.

 

[nasa1974]

I'm surprised we haven't had a little pullback recently. S fund has gone straight up basically. S fund has also been outperforming by a lot over C fund. But we are still not overbought and I still expect a run to the 200 dma where I also expect the RSI to be about 70 (overbought). Getting the feeling that might trigger one.

On a personal note, I am finally in the green for the year but trailing F fund a little. Hope to take it out this month. Did I just jinx it? Hope not.....

Still -4.3% for the year and I was down 2.5% for 2015. 100% S fund and hoping to get back to my 1/1/15 balance by the end of 2016.

 

[Scout333]

I know we are due for a pull back, but this market is building steam and there are a lot of bears out there. I think we will explode higher when they decide to join in on the fun. That may not happen until the Fed announcement.

Reminds me of an old lawyer I know, He always says when you get to be my age you see a bear behind every tree!!! Ha!

 

[clester]

S fund is helping me get back some of my lead over C fund i lost last month. Glad to be in the green for this year. RSI is at 69 at this moment so we are close to being overbought

 

[clester]

S fund is helping me get back some of my lead over C fund i lost last month. Glad to be in the green for this year. RSI is at 69 at this moment so we are close to being overbought

Jinxed it. Giving back some of those gains today. We are finally getting a little profit taking. We were climbing a little too fast. It's healthy to have some down days. We are still in good shape on S fund. It's in no mans land in between moving averages. RSI hit 69 yesterday which is just below the overbought reading, the uptrend is still in place, and sentiment isn't too bullish. I still expect us to make a run at the 200 dma. This pullback will help with RSI to keep it under 70 while we climb to the 200 dma. If we do get there and RSI is overbought I plan to sell 50%

 

[clester]

Jinxed it. Giving back some of those gains today. We are finally getting a little profit taking. We were climbing a little too fast. It's healthy to have some down days. We are still in good shape on S fund. It's in no mans land in between moving averages. RSI hit 69 yesterday which is just below the overbought reading, the uptrend is still in place, and sentiment isn't too bullish. I still expect us to make a run at the 200 dma. This pullback will help with RSI to keep it under 70 while we climb to the 200 dma. If we do get there and RSI is overbought I plan to sell 50%

Okay, that's enough consolidation. Hope today is the day we start back up. S&P has been all around the 2000 level but can't close above it. If it does we should be in good shape. The S fund has a way to go up to its 200 dma and its RSI is now in good shape to keep it below 70 which is overbought. It caused sentiment to fall too, which is a good sign.

 

[clester]

Okay, that's enough consolidation. Hope today is the day we start back up. S&P has been all around the 2000 level but can't close above it. If it does we should be in good shape. The S fund has a way to go up to its 200 dma and its RSI is now in good shape to keep it below 70 which is overbought. It caused sentiment to fall too, which is a good sign.

Well, the market heard me I guess

RSI's are about 65 and that gives us room to rally further. At least up to 70.

TSPTalk sentiment survey is getting pretty bullish. Not overly bullish yet.

C fund is just above its 200 dma so we could have some resistance there. If we do break above it remember that its not unusual to retest it from above.
S fund still looks good and has plenty of room to climb up to its 200 dma. Ditto for I fund.

I will mainly be watching the RSI for overbought readings. Once we get overbought I may sell 50%. If we get the negative divergence on RSI vs price I will sell 100%. That is when price goes up to higher high while RSI makes a lower high.

Hoping for a good week. If so then next week could see profit taking and so I may be selling 50%

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Great points/strategy. I am invested in S and I fund precisely because of the room to grow up to 200DMA. Will see how that works out. Strategy to watch for negative divergence between RSI and price is good and interesting. Never have really known how to apply RSI from diversion prospective. Will check it out. Thanks!

Best wishes to you and everyone on your Investments!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[clester]

Starting to see a few worrying signs. S&P has failed at 200 dma ( not a big problem yet. It is major resistance). S fund ($emw) was unable to make a new high and seems to be in a range with the bottom at 962 and top at 983. If that breaks we could have a bigger problem. But RSI's look ok and sentiment is a little high but not extreme yet. Maybe this is all about Fed meeting. We will know soon.

 

[clester]

Starting to see a few worrying signs. S&P has failed at 200 dma ( not a big problem yet. It is major resistance). S fund ($emw) was unable to make a new high and seems to be in a range with the bottom at 962 and top at 983. If that breaks we could have a bigger problem. But RSI's look ok and sentiment is a little high but not extreme yet. Maybe this is all about Fed meeting. We will know soon.

S&P has had a perfect pause then bust through of the 200 dma. The next resistance could be when the RSI gets to 70. We are at 66 at this moment. S fund is only at 61 and well below its 200 dma.

Once the S&P get to 70 then I will be looking for the divergence with price. Price will make a higher high and RSI will make a lower high. That will give me a sell signal.

 

[rspring]

S&P has had a perfect pause then bust through of the 200 dma. The next resistance could be when the RSI gets to 70. We are at 66 at this moment. S fund is only at 61 and well below its 200 dma.

Once the S&P get to 70 then I will be looking for the divergence with price. Price will make a higher high and RSI will make a lower high. That will give me a sell signal.

THANKS! Please keep us posted on any changes.

 

[clester]

S&P has had a perfect pause then bust through of the 200 dma. The next resistance could be when the RSI gets to 70. We are at 66 at this moment. S fund is only at 61 and well below its 200 dma.

Once the S&P get to 70 then I will be looking for the divergence with price. Price will make a higher high and RSI will make a lower high. That will give me a sell signal.

I'm getting that nervous feeling like maybe it's time for a pull back. Sentiment is pretty high but not extreme yet.

S fund is not overbought and has 3-4 % to go up to 200 dma. C fund is above its 200 dma and near overbought RSI.

So, I'm cautious but haven't gotten a sell signal yet. We are still in a bear market (50 dma below 200 dma) so I should have a sell bias according to my system. If we have a big up day today I may sell 50%.

 

[clester]

I'm getting that nervous feeling like maybe it's time for a pull back. Sentiment is pretty high but not extreme yet.

S fund is not overbought and has 3-4 % to go up to 200 dma. C fund is above its 200 dma and near overbought RSI.

So, I'm cautious but haven't gotten a sell signal yet. We are still in a bear market (50 dma below 200 dma) so I should have a sell bias according to my system. If we have a big up day today I may sell 50%.

No sell today but a feel a short term pull back soon. Let's see how it looks next week. Time for Basketball!

 

[clester]

S fund looks to have divergence with RSI lower and Price higher which is a sell. We are in a bear market and my system says to be in no more than 50% without compelling reason. It is in between 50 and 200 dma, But C fund price is above both and I wouldn't be surprised if we retest the 200 dma from above. I think the time is right for that pull back.

 

[clester]

S fund looks to have divergence with RSI lower and Price higher which is a sell. We are in a bear market and my system says to be in no more than 50% without compelling reason. It is in between 50 and 200 dma, But C fund price is above both and I wouldn't be surprised if we retest the 200 dma from above. I think the time is right for that pull back.

Since the markets have turned around I'm second guessing my move (100% G fund cob) but the C fund RSI is over 70 as I write and we have a lot of resistance above. Sentiment is pretty bullish but not extreme yet. S fund could still climb to 200 dma before pull back.