Valkyrie
Well-known member
Election year rally??
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
Election year rally??
JTH
Well-known member
Statistically speaking, I'm looking to ride the C-Fund over the next 2 days, pop over to the F-Fund for another 2, then hop into the S-fund for the rest of the month.
Will it work?
Probably not...
JTH
Well-known member
Too many offensive jokes, it's too tempting....
clester
Well-known member
S fund up while everything else is down is curious today. I guess Google is having a big effect. It's in many indexes just not small caps.
C fund is about to have golden cross where 50 dma crosses back above 200 dma. That's bull market rules for me. But C fund seems extended. S and I funds are above both moving averages but not near golden cross yet. So, am I in bull market rules? Idk. Haven't really thought about this situation. May can be a bad month but we are in an election year that is usually a good year for stocks. Does that matter? Idk. But market seems to be behaving like a bull. I will consider this over the weekend.
C fund is about to have golden cross where 50 dma crosses back above 200 dma. That's bull market rules for me. But C fund seems extended. S and I funds are above both moving averages but not near golden cross yet. So, am I in bull market rules? Idk. Haven't really thought about this situation. May can be a bad month but we are in an election year that is usually a good year for stocks. Does that matter? Idk. But market seems to be behaving like a bull. I will consider this over the weekend.
clester
Well-known member
Glad to see a little pull back. I'm not ready to buy yet but C fund is now in bull market rules with S and I soon to follow. I worry about May being such a volatile month with a lot of bad months in recent years. I have some unidentified negatives nagging at me. Telling me to be cautious. Call it gut instinct I guess.
I should be buying some C fund according to my system so I will be looking for an opportunity. A test of the 50 dma might do it.
clester
Well-known member
Gut or not I am going to have to buy some stocks. My system calls for it. Today or tomorrow. I plan on 50 % buy. If we get new all time highs I will go 100% or if we get a good pull back. All funds will move to bull market rules soon so my system says to be in stocks at least 50%. I feel like May may be the month for a pull back but who knows.
I am losing ground to S&P. Now only up about 1% on S&P.
ravensfan
Well-known member
Gut or not I am going to have to buy some stocks. My system calls for it. Today or tomorrow. I plan on 50 % buy. If we get new all time highs I will go 100% or if we get a good pull back. All funds will move to bull market rules soon so my system says to be in stocks at least 50%. I feel like May may be the month for a pull back but who knows.
I am losing ground to S&P. Now only up about 1% on S&P.
Well if it's any comfort, both the C and S funds were up in the month of May over the past 3 years. Of course, the 3 years prior to that, C and S were down. I guess that makes this a contrarian trade...Good luck with whatever you decide to do...:smile:
FogSailing
Well-known member
You timing might be perfect Clester to catch an end of the month rally. I just look at M1, oil, Forex, and CB news right now. I've given up on TA . EW is also becoming a lagging indicator for me over the last 4 months. There is a bear flag on the S&P but USD\JPY goes to 109 and the SPX pops. We're only about 12 points from the recent high. If it breaks 2100 today, I think the trend could still be up into May. I'm still looking for a pullback to pivot 2034 before I take another leap though..Best of Luck to You.
FS
FS
Gut or not I am going to have to buy some stocks. My system calls for it. Today or tomorrow. I plan on 50 % buy. If we get new all time highs I will go 100% or if we get a good pull back. All funds will move to bull market rules soon so my system says to be in stocks at least 50%. I feel like May may be the month for a pull back but who knows.
I am losing ground to S&P. Now only up about 1% on S&P.
I am really new to monitoring my TSP. I understand the market goes up and down. However, the global economy is stinking, including US. However, since early March or so, we have had a crazy run-up. Everyone says that we are expecting a pull back...the question is when. Even in March people were saying we are ready for a pullback. Still nothing, really.
I guess what I am saying, is that I still have a lot to learn. I am mostly in G and F for awhile. Waiting for the market to tank. Never happened.
I am young and still have a lot to learn about investing in the market. I guess at my age, I should more aggressive with my retirement.
clester
Well-known member
One thing to know is that the economy and stock market are 2 different things. The fed flooding the economy with cheap money makes stocks go up. Companies are borrow cheaply to invest in the company or just buy stock. So profits should rise. There are any number of external factors can also play in. Thats why i like to use technical analysis. It can give clues as to which way markets will go.
ravensfan
Well-known member
Read the following today regarding the drop today.
"Sentiment was fragile heading into today’s session after the Bank of Japan refrained from adding more stimulus measures, and turned sour after Carl Icahn said he sold out of his stake in Apple Inc."
Looks like one of those external factors is todays culprit...
"Sentiment was fragile heading into today’s session after the Bank of Japan refrained from adding more stimulus measures, and turned sour after Carl Icahn said he sold out of his stake in Apple Inc."
Looks like one of those external factors is todays culprit...
Whipsaw
Well-known member
Read the following today regarding the drop today.
"Sentiment was fragile heading into today’s session after the Bank of Japan refrained from adding more stimulus measures, and turned sour after Carl Icahn said he sold out of his stake in Apple Inc."
Looks like one of those external factors is todays culprit...
Futures are up at the moment... :worried:
Lkat don't know if you are contributing each payday but would suggest that at least those funds should be in the market C S and/or I Funds. Theory is that doesn't matter if market is down i.e. you are buying low and over time you are essentially dollar cost averaging into the market. You young folks have all the advantages. You are smart to pay attention to your retirement funds early in your career! Good luck!
Khotso
Active member
You know, that's a good observation. I've been sitting in G all year because of the volatility initially, but then immediately after, the charts. Its been the same thing over and over. I'm starting to get dizzy.
clester
Well-known member
I am in a conundrum today to to this mornings sell off. The pull back may be what I was looking for but its not quite enough to get a good buy signal yet C fund is in bull market rules. I save a trade if I go ahead and buy today. But I am nervous about May.
The C fund is not usually the leader, the S fund should be and it's in bear market rules still. It won't be much longer though because the 50 dma is climbing fast.
I can't shake that feeling that I should wait and my system is wishy-washy at this point.
The C fund is not usually the leader, the S fund should be and it's in bear market rules still. It won't be much longer though because the 50 dma is climbing fast.
I can't shake that feeling that I should wait and my system is wishy-washy at this point.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Go for it. Misery loves company.
clester
Well-known member
Just an observation but looking at the auto tracker, 200 people are beating the S&P. Looking at the last few years, we had lots of folks beating the S&P during slightly up years and I suspect down years but during strong bull market years only a handful beat it. That just reminded me of how important it is to be holding during those years and not time too much. Also, how timing helps a lot during turbulent years. This is how my system is supposed to work.
Congrats to all of you who are beating the S&P this year. It's not an easy feat.
Congrats to all of you who are beating the S&P this year. It's not an easy feat.
clester
Well-known member
The C and S funds have now broken the long uptrend channel and have started a downtrend channel. There is support around the 50 and 200 dma. I will wait to see how that plays out before buying.
Still have mixed reports on bull market as only C fund has crossed into bull market rules for my system. It also has lots of resistance from last year to reach a new all time high.
Still have mixed reports on bull market as only C fund has crossed into bull market rules for my system. It also has lots of resistance from last year to reach a new all time high.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Polish up that crystal ball and tell us if we are heading into a substantial pullback.
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