clester's Account Talk

[clester]

860 didn't hold so....

IF we did indeed have a head and shoulders pattern then we could go below 1700 on S&P

The head was about 2100 and neckline about 1860. That's 240 points or so. 1860 - 240 = 1620 ouch. I'm just using convenient numbers. Real technical analysts could give us a proper number. In any case, we are in trouble. We may be able to hit a short term bounce here and there.

I'm not sure this scenario will happen. Maybe something will change.

Only positive for stocks is that AGG is way overbought via RSI of 80+ and my system would be selling 100% if I were in it. It usually moves opposite stocks.

 

[clester]

Seems we're getting the usual pre holiday reversal. Short covering before the weekend? IDK but we could also be starting another bear flag formation. But we are down so much this year already. Seems like we should get a bounce. S fund is down over 20% from it's high.

Anyway no good reason to buy back in today. Looking for a good re-entry point.

 

[clester]

Seems we're getting the usual pre holiday reversal. Short covering before the weekend? IDK but we could also be starting another bear flag formation. But we are down so much this year already. Seems like we should get a bounce. S fund is down over 20% from it's high.

Anyway no good reason to buy back in today. Looking for a good re-entry point.

AGG sell signal worked out. That should also help stocks but it hasn't developed the divergence (RSI and price) yet to say that the price will continue down

 

[clester]

AGG sell signal worked out. That should also help stocks but it hasn't developed the divergence (RSI and price) yet to say that the price will continue down

TSPTalk sentiment survey is bearish enough to give a buy signal, AGG looks to have topped out. RSI's have divergence RSI/price and a one day bounce. This could be enough to have a rally. I only have one trade left and have to decide to do 100% or 50% when I make a move. I wish I could move twice 50% at a time. Darn trading rules. I also lost some ground to the CSI funds from when I got out but just a little. That was one argument for staying in 100%. We still have a big downtrend. I would like to see that broken. The C fund broke the head and should neckline are which was a big reason I got out but those patterns can be tricky to pick the neckline.

Guess I have some time to think about it.

 

[clester]

I think I'm gonna wait to see if we can break out of this downtrend on C and S funds before I buy. We are close to the top of the trend lines I draw. So, I can wait a day. I wonder if and when folks still in will sell on these rallies. Again, sentiment survey is probably bearish enough but has the last 2 day rally gotten folks bullish again? We are really in an emotional phase of the market. Listening to your emotions can be trouble or you can do the opposite of what they tell you and be a contrarian. I am logical and that doesn't always work either!

 

[Cactus]

Well you can rely on my emotions. They made a pretty good contrarian indicator in 2014.

Today my emotions are saying enough is enough. I'm looking for more of a rally to bail on so it won't be today. The biggest reason I haven't bailed yet is because of my experience in 2014. When I finally sold in that first week of Feb it turned out I sold at the exact bottom to the day. It then finished out February with a spectacular rally that I did not participate in because I refused to chase.

Granted, 2016 is no 2014, but if you want to use me as a contrarian indicator full disclosure is advised as to what is driving me these days.

 

[clester]

Well you can rely on my emotions. They made a pretty good contrarian indicator in 2014.

Today my emotions are saying enough is enough. I'm looking for more of a rally to bail on so it won't be today. The biggest reason I haven't bailed yet is because of my experience in 2014. When I finally sold in that first week of Feb it turned out I sold at the exact bottom to the day. It then finished out February with a spectacular rally that I did not participate in because I refused to chase.

Granted, 2016 is no 2014, but if you want to use me as a contrarian indicator full disclosure is advised as to what is driving me these days.

I've been in the same situation many times. It really sucks to be that guy that sells at the bottom or buys the top. When we could trade daily I would get whipsawed a lot. That's one reason I adopted the 50% rule into my system. I guess it's the reason for my system. I went to the school of hard knocks!

 

[clester]

I'm back looking at the S fund. It has met all my requirements to buy. The RSI divergence is perfect and a good bounce off the bottom. It looks like the downtrend line will be broken today. As long as thing still look good buy noon I will probably buy. It's hard to buy after 2 big up days in a row though.

 

[clester]

I'm back looking at the S fund. It has met all my requirements to buy. The RSI divergence is perfect and a good bounce off the bottom. It looks like the downtrend line will be broken today. As long as thing still look good buy noon I will probably buy. It's hard to buy after 2 big up days in a row though.

It sucks to miss out on three big up days and i hate to be buying after that but the trade restrictions and the holiday etc are part of the problem. Buying now, I have the possibility of getting whipsawed. But my system has a buy. S fund has the most room to recoversince it is down more. So I will follow my system. We should get to 50 dma and hopefully to the 200dma before we have a significant pullback.

 

[clester]

That quickly i lost my 4.5% lead on C fund and now its just 0.5%

 

[jkenjohnson]

That quickly i lost my 4.5% lead on C fund and now its just 0.5%

You'll get it back and then some.

 

[clester]

You'll get it back and then some.

I do like the continued bearish sentiment. I was afraid everyone would be bullish again. Also I really do like the setup but my system, like them all, doesn't always work.

 

[ravensfan]

I do like the continued bearish sentiment. I was afraid everyone would be bullish again. Also I really do like the setup but my system, like them all, doesn't always work.

Well if it works 60% of the time, you're doing great! :smile:

 

[clester]

Trade has worked out so far

I expect resistance at the 50 dma and on the S&P that's also about where the previous high is which will be possible resistance. The S fund has a little further to go to reach the 50 dma but if we can get through it we can easily run up to the 200 dma. The RSI's are not a factor now but the divergence I was looking for played out perfectly. We are still in bear market rules for my system which has me no more than 50% in stocks. I broke that rule because of the setup. But, I will be looking for a place to sell 50% to 100% if we fail at either moving average.

 

[clester]

Trade has worked out so far

I expect resistance at the 50 dma and on the S&P that's also about where the previous high is which will be possible resistance. The S fund has a little further to go to reach the 50 dma but if we can get through it we can easily run up to the 200 dma. The RSI's are not a factor now but the divergence I was looking for played out perfectly. We are still in bear market rules for my system which has me no more than 50% in stocks. I broke that rule because of the setup. But, I will be looking for a place to sell 50% to 100% if we fail at either moving average.

I guess since I'm in stocks I am looking for positives, but S fund seems to be outperforming C fund again even on down days. That's a good sign. We need to get above the recent high to keep this going though.

 

[clester]

I guess since I'm in stocks I am looking for positives, but S fund seems to be outperforming C fund again even on down days. That's a good sign. We need to get above the recent high to keep this going though.

Whew! I'm very happy with the turnaround today. S fund has now held 930 ($EMW) twice. We need to close above 930 to solidify the uptrend though. C and I funds still look a little shaky but we now have a higher close and we are testing the 50 dma. We need to clear that for a uptrend to continue.

 

[clester]

C fund has broken its 50 dma but the S fund is still below it's and needs a little over 1% to get there. I think that if the S fund breaks through both funds can run up to their 200 dma. Its not unusual to retest the moving average after a breakout, so be on the lookout for that.

 

[rspring]

C fund has broken its 50 dma but the S fund is still below it's and needs a little over 1% to get there. I think that if the S fund breaks through both funds can run up to their 200 dma. Its not unusual to retest the moving average after a breakout, so be on the lookout for that.

I think things may get interesting with oil breaking out to the upside, 4th quarter GDP increased to 1%, seller remorse, and lots of dough $$$ on the sidelines. Thanks for posting your system I like to use several systems input to help me make my own decision on how to invest in the TSP. It's been a very difficult year so far. Good luck to everyone playing the game with the restricted rules we have.

 

[clester]

I think things may get interesting with oil breaking out to the upside, 4th quarter GDP increased to 1%, seller remorse, and lots of dough $$$ on the sidelines. Thanks for posting your system I like to use several systems input to help me make my own decision on how to invest in the TSP. It's been a very difficult year so far. Good luck to everyone playing the game with the restricted rules we have.

Good idea to get lots of input. Just be careful because I have found that to many inputs can confuse more than help. That's why I only use a few simple indicators. I got bogged down in too much information and too many viewpoints. It helps to be able to step back and look at the big picture rather than all the details like GDP, retail sales, jobs reports, ISM, geopolitical, US politics, what everyone else here is doing, etc.

My system remains on a buy but I'll be watching for a few key items. The S fund continues to outperform C fund which is a good sign because it usually leads. I've gotten back a little on the C fund. I'm +2.85% better than C fund and 5.8% better than S fund now but still negative (-2.16%) on the year.

We are at a critical spot IMO. RSI's and sentiment aren't a factor right now. The C fund has broken the 50 DMA and tested it from above (successfully so far) and the S fund tested from below and backed off. We need the C fund to pull away from the 50 dma and the S fund to get through it's. If that happens we could have a lot further upside (up to the 200 dma). It's a little tricky around the end of the month though. Unless Monday is a big bust, I will be staying put in S fund.

 

[clester]

C fund has broken its 50 dma but the S fund is still below it's and needs a little over 1% to get there. I think that if the S fund breaks through both funds can run up to their 200 dma. Its not unusual to retest the moving average after a breakout, so be on the lookout for that.

If we finish like we are now then I think we have the all clear to run up to the 200 dma. There we might struggle. Remember breakouts tend to get retested. So, I would expect a little sideways action at the 200 dma and if it can breakout then a retest. If it fails to get through it then we could have a nice pullback.