clester's Account Talk

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clester said:
Haven't quite got my ideal situation but I will likely be buying tomorrow. The C fund will be crossing back into bull market (50 dma above the 200) today or tomorrow and my system will put me at least 50% in stocks. The C fund is the only one in bull market though which is concerning.

The Christmas rally will likely still take place next week and into next year. Whether I go in in 2 steps (50% each) or one I am looking at going 100% stocks. I will probably wait until tomorrow and hope we get a little pull back.
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We now have a descending channel in s&p and a reversal of the big rally. Things looking iffy again and both the C and I funds are still in bear market. C fund is just about ready for the 50 dma to cross the 200 but with a couple more down days if it does cross then it won't be by much. Therefore, i will be cautious here and wait to see how it plays out. If we can get the RSI down to 30 then i would have a buy signal.
 
C fund has crossed over into Bull market and it is Santa Claus time! I am moving int C fund 100% for the holidays. The TSPTalk sentiment survey is a little scary being well over the 2 to 1 long/short ratio(sell signal) but things seemed to be lined up for at least a short term rally.
 
clester said:
C fund has crossed over into Bull market and it is Santa Claus time! I am moving int C fund 100% for the holidays. The TSPTalk sentiment survey is a little scary being well over the 2 to 1 long/short ratio(sell signal) but things seemed to be lined up for at least a short term rally.
Click to expand...

So far so good. I have been looking at the presidential cycle vs stocks. Especially 2011-1012 since its the most recent. So 4 years ago vs now. If we follow a similar pattern then we should climb through March.

C fund is back in bull market. If it can get to a new high we are in good shape. Thats a pretty good climb from here.
 
clester said:
C fund has crossed over into Bull market and it is Santa Claus time! I am moving int C fund 100% for the holidays. The TSPTalk sentiment survey is a little scary being well over the 2 to 1 long/short ratio(sell signal) but things seemed to be lined up for at least a short term rally.
Click to expand...

thinking same thing...going back in with one eye on the exit door.
 
Looks like the C Fund punched right through the 50 DMA while the S Fund is trying to rise above its 20 DMA and getting pulled back down. With 1 IFT left, I may go all C. Most likely tomorrow.
 
Cactus said:
Looks like the C Fund punched right through the 50 DMA while the S Fund is trying to rise above its 20 DMA and getting pulled back down. With 1 IFT left, I may go all C. Most likely tomorrow.
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Yeah S fund doesn't look good to me. Below 50 dma and 200 dma while in bear market (50 is below 200 )
 
In the past I have been hit with the first of January drop. Seems like it lasts 3 days or so. Its seems like they were pretty big drops. If that pattern continues then it will be a rough start to the year. I may jump out for a couple of days to see how it plays out. I don't expect it to last a long time but it may be steep.
 
Looks like it is going to be a ruff day. Bad news coming out of China and then you have that little squabble between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
 
clester said:
In the past I have been hit with the first of January drop. Seems like it lasts 3 days or so. Its seems like they were pretty big drops. If that pattern continues then it will be a rough start to the year. I may jump out for a couple of days to see how it plays out. I don't expect it to last a long time but it may be steep.
Click to expand...
The market I had hoped for is not playing out. Seems this may be a choppy year. The bull market in C fund is in danger and the 50 dma will likely cross back under the 200 dma. I hate to sell on big down days because I'm afraid of getting whipsawed but my system says sell. Going 100% G fund. Hope we get a rally by the end of today but a sell off may be in the cards.
 
clester said:
The market I had hoped for is not playing out. Seems this may be a choppy year. The bull market in C fund is in danger and the 50 dma will likely cross back under the 200 dma. I hate to sell on big down days because I'm afraid of getting whipsawed but my system says sell. Going 100% G fund. Hope we get a rally by the end of today but a sell off may be in the cards.
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A buying opportunity is coming. But it's not today. Watching the RSI for a sub 30 reading and preferably down to 20. What is a perfect set up is a divergence at the extremes. When we hit below 30 then RSI goes up some while prices drop one more time.

The buying the dip strategy doesn't seem to be working this time like it did the last few years where you bought a big sell off knowing it would go right back up.
 
Hindsight being what it is I wish I got out before the new year. I thought about it but didn't pull the trigger. Now I just hope today isn't to bad.
 
nasa1974 said:
Hindsight being what it is I wish I got out before the new year. I thought about it but didn't pull the trigger. Now I just hope today isn't to bad.
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Tell me about it, I had planned to exit equities at the end of December, but plumb forgot to login before deadline. I'm posting this here because, thankfully, I was not fully in equities...the result of paying attention to the strategies Clester has shared with us over the last couple years. Mainly, keep allocations lighter while not in a clear bull market.

Now, to figure out whether or not to keep partially in equities or just pull the plug.
 
clester said:
A buying opportunity is coming. But it's not today. Watching the RSI for a sub 30 reading and preferably down to 20. What is a perfect set up is a divergence at the extremes. When we hit below 30 then RSI goes up some while prices drop one more time.

The buying the dip strategy doesn't seem to be working this time like it did the last few years where you bought a big sell off knowing it would go right back up.
Click to expand...

Agreed about the dip buying. I need to personally see more than a one day DCB or even a two day trickle up to make me want to wade in. I say bottom this thing all the way out and then I'll make my money. For now, I'm not losing anything.

Frank
 
The S and I funds are looking the most interesting to me right now. Both are near 30 RSI . They are also in bear markets so if I were to buy it old be 50%. I would like o see a break of 30 though.

C fund is about to cross back over into bear market. RSI has a way to to before I would look at buying.

I hear a lot of folks calling for a rally today by the end of the day. Too many calling for it may mean it won't happen.
 
clester said:
The S and I funds are looking the most interesting to me right now. Both are near 30 RSI . They are also in bear markets so if I were to buy it old be 50%. I would like o see a break of 30 though.

C fund is about to cross back over into bear market. RSI has a way to to before I would look at buying.

I hear a lot of folks calling for a rally today by the end of the day. Too many calling for it may mean it won't happen.
Click to expand...

C has already gained back 50% of this morning's loss and still headed up.
 
Folks that missed the chance to get out are selling the bounce today. Thats why its hard to get a good rally going in these situations. It's seems that we may need to go lower. I'm patient. I would love to see the RSI indicators tun up while prices go down another leg (divergence) to be a perfect buying opportunity.

Again, the sell the rally today is a bearish sign. Be careful out there.
 
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