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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
A day for testing....
C fund testing 200 dma from above, S fund testing 50 dma from above. Will they hold?
I am expecting a fail here and when the pull back is done I will be looking to buy. The C fund may need to test its 50 dma again. It would be nice to be able to buy before the end of the month but it probably won't happen. But when I do it will be C or I fund. The S fund is just looking tired and is lagging the others. Thats a problem for me. If we were going to get back to bull market it should, at least, climb with the other indexes.
Bear market rules for my system.
C fund testing 200 dma from above, S fund testing 50 dma from above. Will they hold?
I am expecting a fail here and when the pull back is done I will be looking to buy. The C fund may need to test its 50 dma again. It would be nice to be able to buy before the end of the month but it probably won't happen. But when I do it will be C or I fund. The S fund is just looking tired and is lagging the others. Thats a problem for me. If we were going to get back to bull market it should, at least, climb with the other indexes.
Bear market rules for my system.
clester
Well-known member
Amazing rally from the bottom for C fund. So much that it is now near overbought via RSI. Almost to 70. So i cant buy yet. The S fund is in no mans land as its in between 50 and 200 dma. Both are in bear market.
Ive missed out on a lot of the rally trying to time a pull back.
My system say to buy no more than 50 % in a bear market. I don't have a buy signal so I'n stuck watching and waiting for a better entry point.
Ive missed out on a lot of the rally trying to time a pull back.
My system say to buy no more than 50 % in a bear market. I don't have a buy signal so I'n stuck watching and waiting for a better entry point.
clester
Well-known member
Yeah thanks. Thats what my system does. Its fairly conservativeIt's better to be stuck waiting for a better entry point than to buy high and ride the next leg down. That's especially true if you're already retired.
clester
Well-known member
The C fund hit the RSI sell signal (70) yesterday before pulling back but is still right at it. I expect the pull back anytime now but the rally seems to keep going. I made a mistake selling my 50% stake. I was trying to time a short pull back but didn't get back in. Shoulda stayed in. But now my system has a sell signal. Lets see how that turns out.
clester
Well-known member
Interesting jobs report. If traders think the rate hike is coming we may get the pull back I was looking for. What would be ideal for me is a pull back to the 50 dma on the S&P. If that were to happen I would be going all in. It is common for stocks to pull back and test areas they broke through. (We should at least get to the 200 dma) This process may take a week or two.
This may not play out but thats my hope. It may also get us back to an RSI of 30 which would be perfect for my system and would give a strong buy signal.
clester
Well-known member
It seems to be playing out as I hoped. If the S&P can get down to and hopefully below the 50 dma I'll be looking to buy.
SPX 50 dma, or 50 ema?
clester
Well-known member
I use simple moving average not exponential. I'm just a simple guy i guess
Mcqlives
Active member
The way energy and metals plummeted today I don't think it will take a week. Unfortunately, I did not imitate FWM and bail last Friday,...now with the 2 move limits I am riding this out...again;swear
clester
Well-known member
Plan still looking good. If we can get a break of the 50 dma on the S&P then I will be buying. I usually like to see a bounce before I buy. I'm thinking The week of Thanksgiving would be a good time to buy but if the opportunity comes and I get a buy signal then I'll buy.
My system still has us in bear market rules so I would normally only buy 50% unless there is a very compelling reason. The C fund is in the best shape so I'd probably buy that.
My system still has us in bear market rules so I would normally only buy 50% unless there is a very compelling reason. The C fund is in the best shape so I'd probably buy that.
clester
Well-known member
S&P failed the test of the 200 dma from the bottom and the S fund failed at its 50 dma. This probably means a little more downside. I'm still looking for the S&P to break its 50 dma before I buy. Anyway, I think we will start the Santa Claus rally around Thanksgiving. So, I will be buying at least 50% C fund by next Wednesday.
Clester, we are at the underside of the 200 dma (SPX now at 2063.30). Is there a chance that we might cross-over and hold above the 200 dma for a couple of days' and then keep rising to close the opened gap at 2072.29?
clester
Well-known member
Well, my hopes weren't realized. We broke above the 200 dma and are holding above for the C fund. We are not far from the previous high. I was hoping for a break of the 50 dma to get in. Perhaps, I missed the buying opportunity. But it feels like we jumped the gun on the Thanksgiving rally. So, we may not get it next week. My system doesn't give me a good idea now of what to do so I will probably sit tight.
As long as we hold above both moving averages I should probably buy in 50% but I feel like being stubborn. My system says we are in a limbo situation until we break out to new highs or get another drop.
As long as we hold above both moving averages I should probably buy in 50% but I feel like being stubborn. My system says we are in a limbo situation until we break out to new highs or get another drop.
clester
Well-known member
Well, my hopes weren't realized. We broke above the 200 dma and are holding above for the C fund. We are not far from the previous high. I was hoping for a break of the 50 dma to get in. Perhaps, I missed the buying opportunity. But it feels like we jumped the gun on the Thanksgiving rally. So, we may not get it next week. My system doesn't give me a good idea now of what to do so I will probably sit tight.
As long as we hold above both moving averages I should probably buy in 50% but I feel like being stubborn. My system says we are in a limbo situation until we break out to new highs or get another drop.
As long as we hold above both moving averages I should probably buy in 50% but I feel like being stubborn. My system says we are in a limbo situation until we break out to new highs or get another drop.
clester
Well-known member
Just to update:
C fund is still above both moving averages but is still in bear market because 50 dma is below 200 dma an has yet to break out to new highs. At this point its testing the recent high and really the long term flat looking top. So, I think I will wait for a breakout. I could justify a 50% position but Its not that compelling to me.
S fund is in between moving averages and is still in bear market, It is testing two recent tops around the 1060 level on $EMW. Not compelling either.
I fund is similar to S fund and in a consolidation range between moving averages and in a bear market.
I would like to be in at least 50% but I think I'll wait.
clester
Well-known member
Things are getting interesting. I expect to be buying next week. Maybe fed day? Or maybe friday. RSI bellow 30 is a buy.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Good analysis Clester. I think you're gonna be a happy guy around Dec 17th.
GFS
GFS
clester
Well-known member
Haven't quite got my ideal situation but I will likely be buying tomorrow. The C fund will be crossing back into bull market (50 dma above the 200) today or tomorrow and my system will put me at least 50% in stocks. The C fund is the only one in bull market though which is concerning.
The Christmas rally will likely still take place next week and into next year. Whether I go in in 2 steps (50% each) or one I am looking at going 100% stocks. I will probably wait until tomorrow and hope we get a little pull back.
The Christmas rally will likely still take place next week and into next year. Whether I go in in 2 steps (50% each) or one I am looking at going 100% stocks. I will probably wait until tomorrow and hope we get a little pull back.
